AFL-CIO's Final GOTV Push

A memo:

To: Interested Parties
From: Steve Smith, AFL-CIO
Re: AFL-CIO's Final GOTV Push

Just wanted to send a final update on AFL-CIO activity through Election Day and a couple of quick notes about how we got here. Also wanted to let you know that on Wednesday the AFL-CIO will hold a press briefing to release election night polling of union members done for us by Peter Hart Research and discuss our economic agenda for the new Administration and Congress. The briefing will be held at AFL-CIO Headquarters in Washington, DC. Out-of-town reporters will be able to join by phone. More information on the briefing to follow.

The AFL-CIO has mounted its largest GOTV effort in history heading into the final weekend with what we call the "Final Four". More than 100,000 volunteers are out in 21 battleground states beginning tomorrow through Election Day visiting more than 3.9 million union households, making 5.5 million calls and distributing more than 2 million leaflets at worksites urging union voters to get to the polls in support of Barack Obama on November 4. AFL-CIO top officers will be in Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Ohio in the final four days.

We're also doing a heavy final push in 12 Senate races, sensing a very real opportunity to achieve a filibuster-proof majority. In addition, we're engaged in 60 House races and hundreds of state legislative races nationwide.

The GOTV effort is the culmination of a months-long campaign by the AFL-CIO and hundreds of thousands of union volunteers to change America. Overall, this has been the largest AFL-CIO mobilization in history. More than 250,000 volunteers have worked on our campaign this cycle and the AFL-CIO and its affiliate unions have dedicated more than $250 million to this campaign. Here are the contact numbers in support of Sen. Obama and other candidates for the entire cycle:

70 million phone calls
10 million door knocks
57 million pieces of mail
27 million worksite fliers

Overview AFL-CIO grassroots mobilization
The AFL-CIO program this year focuses on 13 million union voters in 24 priority states. Early on, we identified Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin -- where the union vote is expected to be between 25-35 percent of the overall electorate -- as the top-tier states. This effort began in March with the launch of the first national field campaign against Sen. McCain, McCain Revealed. We talked to millions of union voters at the door, on the phone and at the worksite through the spring about McCain's anti-worker economic record and flawed proposals.

On June 26, we endorsed Sen. Obama and immediately began an aggressive campaign to re-introduce him to working class voters in states like Ohio. The campaign educated union voters through mail, phones, door and worksite visits and e-mail about Sen. Obama's record on economic issues and detailed his background for those voters who were not very familiar with him. We also dispelled myths and rumors that were being spread by the right-wing about Sen. Obama. Finally, in August we identified 3 million undecided voters and began a microtargeted communications program to those voters, focusing heavily on key swing groups like gun owners, veterans and retirees.

The program has resulted in astonishing gains for Sen. Obama among working-class voters in Rust Belt states. Internal polling released this week shows:

In Ohio, Obama now has a 29-point advantage (61%-32%) over McCain among union members, an improvement of 16 points since August.
In Pennsylvania, Obama's support has risen 22 points since mid-August to a 63%-27% advantage.
In Michigan, Obama now holds a commanding 68%-23% lead among union members, up 26 points from mid-August.

Polling of target groups taken from samples in all three states also shows remarkable growth.

Among union gun owners, it's now 58-30 Obama, up from 48-41 in early
September, a 21 point jump. Among veterans we're at 58-32, up from 49-41 in
early September, an 18 point jump. And among retirees, we're now at 59-31,
up from 52-37, a 14 point improvement, nearly double the margin. We've
exceeded goals for all three groups.