Battle For The Electoral College: Battleground Control To Major John
With 11/4 quickly approaching, the Hotline will now publish Battle For The Electoral College twice each week. Look for a new Electoral College breakdown in the Hotline each Tues. and Fri. through e-day.
Today's update features 20 polls released since the 10/3 edition and shows Barack Obama with 313 EVs to John McCain's 201 EVs; 24 EVs now reside as toss-up. In Fri.'s update, Obama led 327 EVs to 211 EVs with no toss-up states. Among solid states, Obama leads 234 EVs to 134 EVs; on 10/3, Obama led solids 231 EVs to 149 EVs.
There are 16 new battleground state polls out since the previous update, including five surveys which show statistically significant advantages. Once again, all of these solid margins belong to Obama.
What's more, the candidates are now exactly tied in CO and NC, two formerly lean McCain states which Pres. Bush carried in both '00 and '04. New polls by the Denver Post/Mason Dixon and CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. pushed these battlegrounds and their 24 total EVs to the toss-up column.
At the same time, however, McCain recouped 27 EVs with a new FL Chamber of Commerce poll that moved FL from lean Obama to lean McCain. The only other state to shift between the candidates was VA, which went from lean McCain to solid Obama with the release of a new Suffolk Univ. poll.
As always, the Electoral College chart reflects all state polling data published in the Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
(CARRIE DINDINO)
For a full explanation of classification symbols, see the key below the chart.
Electoral Distribution
McCAIN STATES OBAMA STATES TOSS-UP STATES M Lean McCain 67 O Lean Obama 79 -- 24 M+ Solid McCain 134 O+ Solid Obama 234 Total 201 Total 313
State-By-State Polling
St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE +/- LEAD AL 9 58% 36% ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0% M+ - 52 25 Univ of So. AL 9/8-15 406 LVs 4.9 M+ - 55 35 CapSurvResCent 9/3-9 606 LVs 4.0 M+ AK 3 55 37 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 38 Research 2000 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 39 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 54 35 Ivan Moore (D) 8/30-9/2 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 57 33 AmeriViewpt(R) 9/2 400 RVs 4.9 M+ - 40 45 Hays Res. Grp. 8/6-7 400 LVs 4.9 O - 44 42 GlblStrgGrp(D) 6/5-10 600 LVs 4.0 M AR 6 53 41 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 M+ AZ 10 45 38 AZ State Univ. 9/25-28 976 RVs 3.1 M+ - 56 39 ARG (R) 9/11-14 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 47 41 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M - 50 39 Rocky Mt. Poll 5/12-20 630 RVs 3.9 M+ CA 55 39 53 ARG (R) 9/18-20 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 50 PPIC 9/9-16 1157 LVs 2.9 O+ - 36 52 Field Poll 9/5-14 830 LVs 3.4 O+ - 40 47 LATimes/KTLA 5/20-21 705 RVs 3.7 O CO 9 44 44 Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 48 45 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 794 LVs 3.5 O - 43 44 Ciruli Assoc. 9/19-23 501 RVs 4.4 O - 45 49 Quinnipiac Unv 9/14-21 1418 LVs 2.6 O - 44 45 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 O - 47 45 TarranceGrp(R) 9/2-3 495 LVs 4.4 M - 40 43 Hill Resrch(R) 8/23-24 553 LVs 4.2 O - 39 44 Suffolk Univ. 8/21-24 450 LVs 4.6 O - 44 41 POS(R)/RBI(D) 8/11-13 500 RVs 4.4 M - 41 45 Frederick (D) 7/16-22 700 LVs 3.7 O CT 7 30 47 Pulsar 9/19-23 500 LVs 4.4 O+ - 49 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 35 57 Research 2000 6/30-7/2 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 35 56 Quinnipiac Unv 6/26-29 2437 LVs 2.0 O+ DE 3 36 56 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 51 ARG (R) 9/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+ DC 3 13 82 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ FL 27 45 42 FL Chamb/Comrc 9/30-10/1 619 RVs 3.9 M - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 770 LVs 3.5 O - 42 46 Suffolk Univ. 9/27-30 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 51 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 836 LVs 3.4 O+ - 46 47 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 O - 48 45 StrtegicVis(R) 9/20-22 1200 LVs 2.8 M - 45 47 Mason-Dixon 9/16-18 625 LVs 3.9 O - 46 45 Research 2000 9/15-18 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 45 SEA Polling 9/14-17 800 RVs 3.5 M - 44 44 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 -- - 45 40 Fabrizio (R) 7/20-28 1600 RVs 2.5 M+ GA 15 50 43 Research 2000 9/29-10/1 600 LVs 4.0 M - 57 39 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 56 35 POS (R) 9/8-11 800 LVs 3.5 M+ - 52 39 StrtegicVis(R) 9/7-9 800 LVs 3.5 M+ HI 4 32 63 ARG (R) 9/7-12 600 LVs 4.0 O+ ID 4 62 33 Research 2000 9/16-17 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 68 25 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 52 29 GregSmithAssoc 8/18-22 600 LVs 4.0 M+ IL 21 36 56 Research 2000 9/15-18 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 37 53 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 628 RVs 3.9 O+ - 45 51 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 O IN 11 51 46 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 677 LVs 3.8 M - 46 46 Research 2000 9/29-10/3 800 LVs 3.5 -- - 47 44 ARG (R) 9/14-18 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 43 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 612 RVs 4.0 M - 44 47 Selzer & Co. 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 43 Howey-Gauge 8/29-30 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 38 IN Leg Insight 5/27-6/1 601 RVs 4.0 M+ IA 7 39 55 Research 2000 9/29-30 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 51 Marist College 9/18-21 467 LVs 4.5 O+ - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/17-20 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 45 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 643 RVs 3.9 -- - 40 52 Selzer & Co. 9/8-10 616 LVs 3.9 O+ - 40 55 CNN/Time/ORC 8/31-9/2 828 RVs 3.4 O+ - 43 50 Univ. of IA 8/4-13 617 LVs 3.9 O KS 6 63 31 ARG (R) 9/7-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 49 36 TargetPoint(R) 6/27-7/1 3004 RVs 1.8 M+ - 45 41 CperSecrest(D) 6/5-8 808 LVs 3.4 M - 51 40 Research 2000 6/2-4 600 LVs 4.0 M+ KY 8 53 41 Mason-Dixon 9/22-25 717 LVs 3.7 M+ - 55 37 Research 2000 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 57 37 ARG (R) 9/8-12 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 50 31 V/C Resrch (R) 6/15-17 601 LVs 4.0 M+ LA 9 50 43 ARG (R) 9/9-12 600 LVs 4.0 M - 52 36 SoMedia/OpnRsr 6/26-28 600 LVs 4.0 M+ ME^ 4 35 52 Mellman Grp(D) 9/30-10/2 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 38 52 Research 2000 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 51 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 31 51 CrticalInsghts 6/1-27 602 RVs 4.0 O+ - 32 46 PanAtlanticSMS 6/10-18 400 Adl 4.9 O+ MD 10 39 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 38 52 Gonzales 8/29-9/5 833 RVs 3.4 O+ MA 12 39 55 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 38 47 Suffolk Univ. 7/31-8/3 400 RVs 4.9 O MI 17 39 44 MIRS/D-N/Ross. 10/1-4 600 RVs 4.0 O - 45 48 StrtegicVis(R) 9/22-24 1200 LVs 2.8 O - 38 51 Selzer & Co. 9/22-24 602 LVs 4.0 O+ - 42 49 GQR (D) 9/21-24 760 LVs 3.6 O - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 755 LVs 3.6 O - 45 45 Mason-Dixon 9/18-23 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 38 48 EPIC-MRA 9/20-22 406 LVs 4.9 O+ - 39 47 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 406 RVs 4.9 O - 44 48 Quinnipiac Unv 9/14-21 1364 LVs 2.7 O - 46 43 MRG of Lansing 9/15-20 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 48 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 52 Marist College 9/16-17 599 LVs 4.0 O+ - 44 48 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 628 RVs 3.9 O MN 10 37 55 PRSAI/StarTrib 9/30-10/2 1084 LVs 2.9 O+ - 43 54 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 849 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 47 Quinnipiac Unv 9/14-21 1301 LVs 2.7 O - 47 48 ARG (R) 9/18-20 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 47 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 610 RVs 4.0 O - 38 48 PRN/Univ of MN 8/7-17 763 LVs 3.5 O+ MS 6 55 39 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 52 39 Research 2000 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ MO 11 48 49 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 744 LVs 3.6 O - 47 46 Research 2000 9/22-24 800 LVs 3.5 M - 50 45 ARG (R) 9/11-15 600 LVs 4.0 M MT 3 52 39 Research 2000 9/22-24 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 54 43 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 737 LVs 3.6 M+ - 49 47 ARG (R) 9/7-9 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 39 Mason-Dixon 5/19-21 625 LVs 3.9 M+ NE^ 5 60 34 ARG (R) 9/12-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 57 29 Research 2000 5/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ NV 5 43 50 Resarch 2000 10/3-6 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 684 LVs 3.7 O - 49 47 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 45 Suffolk Univ. 9/17-21 600 LVs 4.0 M - 45 47 Myers/Grove(D) 9/14-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 46 39 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M NH 4 45 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 813 LVs 3.4 O+ - 37 49 St.Anselm/SRBI 9/25-30 823 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 46 StrtegicVis(R) 9/22-24 800 LVs 3.5 O - 44 48 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 46 Suffolk Univ. 9/21-24 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 44 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 403 RVs 4.9 O - 45 51 Marist College 9/17-21 604 LVs 4.0 O - 47 45 WMUR/UNH Gran. 9/14-21 523 LVs 4.3 M - 48 45 ARG (R) 9/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 M - 42 39 Dartmouth Clge 4/28-5/2 401 RVs 4.9 M NJ 15 37 50 FDU/PublicMind 9/29-10/5 790 LVs 3.5 O+ - 39 48 StrtegicVis(R) 9/26-28 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 42 51 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 49 Monmouth/Gann. 9/11-14 589 LVs 4.0 O - 45 48 Quinnipiac Unv 9/10-14 1187 LVs 2.8 O - 41 50 Research 2000 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 45 48 Marist College 9/5-8 584 LVs 4.1 O NM 5 40 45 ABQ Journal 9/29-10/2 659 LVs 3.8 O - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 49 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 O - 40 53 CNN/Time/ORC 8/24-26 659 RVs 3.8 O+ - 45 41 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M NY 31 36 58 Siena College 9/28-30 631 RVs 3.9 O+ - 38 55 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 36 57 Quinnipiac Unv 7/31-8/4 1353 LVs 2.7 O+ - 32 51 New York Times 6/6-11 931 RVs 3.2 0+ NC 15 49 49 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 666 RVs 3.8 -- - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 45 45 Tel Opinion(R) 9/17-20 600 LVs 4.0 -- - 55 38 Research 2000 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 49 46 GarinHrtYng(D) 9/5-7 605 LVs 4.0 M - 47 44 GQR (D) 8/20-26 852 LVs 3.4 M ND 3 53 40 Research 2000 9/16-17 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 52 43 ARG (R) 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 40 43 DFM Research 8/23-27 400 LVs 4.9 O OH 20 47 50 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 749 LVs 3.6 O - 45 51 ABC/WaPo/TNS 10/3-5 772 LVs 3.5 O - 42 49 Columbus Disp. 9/24-10/3 2262 RVs 2.1 O+ - 43 49 GQR (D) 9/29-10/1 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 50 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 825 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 46 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 619 RVs 3.9 O - 48 42 Univ. of Cinc. 9/12-16 869 LVs 3.3 M - 45 47 Marist College 9/11-15 565 LVs 4.1 O - 42 41 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 400 RVs 4.9 M - 46 42 Suffolk Univ. 9/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 M - 50 44 ARG (R) 9/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 M - 48 44 StrtegicVis(R) 9/7-9 1200 LVs 2.8 M OK 7 59 36 Research 2000 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 61 34 ARG (R) 9/15-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 46 24 Sooner Poll 7/19-23 750 LVs 3.6 M+ OR 7 39 53 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 52 ARG (R) 9/19-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 50 DavisHibbitts 9/11-14 500 RVs 4.4 O+ - 37 43 Moore Info (R) 9/10-11 400 RVs 4.9 O - 39 46 Hoffman (R) 9/8-9 600 RVs 4.0 O PA 21 38 49 Muhlenberg Clg 10/1-5 601 LVs 4.0 O+ - 39 54 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 832 LVs 3.4 O+ - 38 45 F&M College 9/23-28 767 RVs 3.5 O - 44 53 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 730 LVs 3.6 O+ - 46 47 StrtegicVis(R) 9/20-22 1200 LVs 2.8 O - 46 50 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O - 41 43 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 406 RVs 4.9 O - 44 46 Mason-Dixon 9/16-18 625 LVs 3.9 O - 45 45 Univ. Of WI 9/14-17 608 RVs 4.0 -- - 44 49 Marist College 9/11-15 535 LVs 4.2 O - 41 46 Susquehanna 8/11-14 700 LVs 3.7 O RI 4 26 48 OpinionFactor 9/30-10/1 1140 Adl 2.9 O+ - 31 45 RI College 9/17-24 742 RVs 3.6 O+ - 34 47 Brown Univ. 9/15-16 652 RVs 3.8 O+ - 33 59 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 25 53 Opinion Factor 6/18-27 500 RVs 4.4 O+ SC 8 54 39 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 53 40 Rich. Quinn(R) 9/22-23 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 59 37 ARG (R) 9/14-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 53 40 Research 2000 7/22-23 500 LVs 4.4 M+ SD 3 55 39 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ TN 11 55 35 MTSU 9/15-27 357 LVs 5.2 M+ - 55 39 Mason-Dixon 9/22-24 625 LVs 3.9 M+ - 59 36 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 51 36 AyresMcHnry(R) 8/10-12 500 RVs 4.4 M+ TX 34 57 36 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 43 33 Univ. of TX 7/18-30 668 RVs 3.8 M+ - 52 36 Baselice (R) 5/20-25 1005 RVs 3.1 M+ UT 5 65 29 ARG (R) 9/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 62 24 DanJonesAssoc 9/8-11 601 RVs 4.0 M+ - 62 23 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M+ VT 3 38 56 ARG (R) 9/18-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 36 55 Research 2000 9/11-14 400 LVs 4.9 O+ VA 13 39 51 Suffolk Univ. 10/3-5 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 48 45 Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 625 LVs 3.9 M - 44 53 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 684 LVs 3.7 O+ - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 49 ABC/WaPo/TNS 9/18-21 698 LVs 3.7 O - 48 41 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 409 RVs 4.8 M - 48 39 CNU 9/10-14 500 RVs 4.4 M+ WA 11 44 50 ARG (R) 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 47 StrtegicVis(R) 9/14-16 800 LVs 3.5 O - 38 45 Elway Poll 9/6-8 450 RVs 4.6 O - 37 47 Moore Info (R) 7/9-10 400 RVs 4.9 O+ - 39 47 Strtegs360 (D) 6/21-26 1200 RVs 2.8 O+ WV 5 50 46 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 694 LVs 3.7 M - 49 45 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 M - 44 39 Blankenship 9/5-8 432 RVs 4.7 M WI 10 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 859 LVs 3.3 O - 40 49 StrtegicVis(R) 9/26-28 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 43 49 Research 2000 9/22-23 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 50 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 49 Quinnipiac Unv 9/14-21 1313 LVs 2.7 O+ - 44 45 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 616 RVs 3.9 O - 38 44 WPRI 8/3-4 600 LVs 4.0 O WY 3 57 36 Research 2000 9/22-24 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 66 28 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 62 25 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M+
Key
SYMBOL STATES M McCain Leads Within The M.O.E. M+ McCain Leads Outside The M.O.E. O Obama Leads Within The M.O.E. O+ Obama Leads Outside The M.O.E. -- Poll Is Tied
^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
You gave McCain FLORIDA based on that one poll?
Despite a whole whack of more recent polls showing Obama with as much as a 7 point lead?!?!
tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/flpres/
Um, wtf?
Count it. Obama 340 EV to McCain's 174.