Battle For The Electoral College: Shofar, So Good
Since the Tues. update, the Hotline has published 17 new WH matchups in 13 different states. Barack Obama now leads John McCain in the Electoral College projection 349 EVs to 180 EVs; on 10/7, he led 313 EVs to 201 EVs. Obama also leads 261 to 146 among solid EVs, up from his 234-134 solid EV margin earlier this week.
Like the previous update, McCain's drought of statistically significant leads in swing state surveys continues. In the 12 battleground state polls released since the previous edition of Battle, six have shown Obama with a solid advantage, while none have shown the same for McCain. Among the other six swing state surveys, Obama leads in five and McCain leads just one.
In fact, not one of the 15 Hotline WH '08 Battleground States currently rests as solid McCain, and only two (IN and MO) are lean McCain. Meanwhile Obama has solids leads in FL, IA, NH, PA, VA and WI, while MI, MN, NC, NM, NV and OH all lean towards him. CO and its 9 EVs remain toss-up in today's chart.
Since 10/7, three GOP polls helped build Obama's EV total. A new Strategic Vision (R) poll moved FL to solid Obama, while new surveys by American Research Group (R) and Civitas Institute (R)/Tel Opinion Research (R) moved WV and NC to lean Obama. The only other movement between candidates was MO, which shifted from lean Obama to lean McCain with the release of an ARG (R) poll.
As always, the Electoral College chart reflects all state polling data published in the Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
(CARRIE DINDINO)
For a full explanation of classification symbols, see the key below the chart.
Electoral Distribution
McCAIN STATES OBAMA STATES TOSS-UP STATES M Lean McCain 34 O Lean Obama 88 -- 9 M+ Solid McCain 146 O+ Solid Obama 261 Total 180 Total 349
State-By-State Polling
St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE +/- LEAD AL 9 58% 36% ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0% M+ - 52 25 Univ of So. AL 9/8-15 406 LVs 4.9 M+ - 55 35 CapSurvResCent 9/3-9 606 LVs 4.0 M+ AK 3 55 37 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 38 Research 2000 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 39 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 54 35 Ivan Moore (D) 8/30-9/2 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 57 33 AmeriViewpt(R) 9/2 400 RVs 4.9 M+ - 40 45 Hays Res. Grp. 8/6-7 400 LVs 4.9 O - 44 42 GlblStrgGrp(D) 6/5-10 600 LVs 4.0 M AR 6 53 41 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 M+ AZ 10 45 38 AZ State Univ. 9/25-28 976 RVs 3.1 M+ - 56 39 ARG (R) 9/11-14 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 47 41 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M - 50 39 Rocky Mt. Poll 5/12-20 630 RVs 3.9 M+ CA 55 39 53 ARG (R) 9/18-20 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 50 PPIC 9/9-16 1157 LVs 2.9 O+ - 36 52 Field Poll 9/5-14 830 LVs 3.4 O+ - 40 47 LATimes/KTLA 5/20-21 705 RVs 3.7 O CO 9 44 44 Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 48 45 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 794 LVs 3.5 O - 43 44 Ciruli Assoc. 9/19-23 501 RVs 4.4 O - 45 49 Quinnipiac Unv 9/14-21 1418 LVs 2.6 O - 44 45 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 O - 47 45 TarranceGrp(R) 9/2-3 495 LVs 4.4 M - 40 43 Hill Resrch(R) 8/23-24 553 LVs 4.2 O - 39 44 Suffolk Univ. 8/21-24 450 LVs 4.6 O - 44 41 POS(R)/RBI(D) 8/11-13 500 RVs 4.4 M - 41 45 Frederick (D) 7/16-22 700 LVs 3.7 O CT 7 30 47 Pulsar 9/19-23 500 LVs 4.4 O+ - 49 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 35 57 Research 2000 6/30-7/2 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 35 56 Quinnipiac Unv 6/26-29 2437 LVs 2.0 O+ DE 3 36 56 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 51 ARG (R) 9/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+ DC 3 13 82 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ FL 27 44 52 StrtegicVis(R) 10/6-8 1200 LVs 2.8 O+ - 46 48 Mason-Dixon 10/4-6 625 LVs 3.9 O - 45 42 FL Chamb/Comrc 9/30-10/1 619 RVs 3.9 M - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 770 LVs 3.5 O - 42 46 Suffolk Univ. 9/27-30 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 51 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 836 LVs 3.4 O+ - 46 47 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 O - 46 45 Research 2000 9/15-18 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 45 SEA Polling 9/14-17 800 RVs 3.5 M - 44 44 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 -- - 45 40 Fabrizio (R) 7/20-28 1600 RVs 2.5 M+ GA 15 50 43 StrtegicVis(R) 10/5-7 800 LVs 3.5 M+ - 50 43 Research 2000 9/29-10/1 600 LVs 4.0 M - 57 39 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 56 35 POS (R) 9/8-11 800 LVs 3.5 M+ HI 4 32 63 ARG (R) 9/7-12 600 LVs 4.0 O+ ID 4 62 33 Research 2000 9/16-17 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 68 25 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 52 29 GregSmithAssoc 8/18-22 600 LVs 4.0 M+ IL 21 36 56 Research 2000 9/15-18 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 37 53 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 628 RVs 3.9 O+ - 45 51 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 O IN 11 51 46 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 677 LVs 3.8 M - 46 46 Research 2000 9/29-10/3 800 LVs 3.5 -- - 47 44 ARG (R) 9/14-18 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 43 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 612 RVs 4.0 M - 44 47 Selzer & Co. 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 43 Howey-Gauge 8/29-30 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 38 IN Leg Insight 5/27-6/1 601 RVs 4.0 M+ IA 7 39 55 Research 2000 9/29-30 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 51 Marist College 9/18-21 467 LVs 4.5 O+ - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/17-20 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 45 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 643 RVs 3.9 -- - 40 52 Selzer & Co. 9/8-10 616 LVs 3.9 O+ - 40 55 CNN/Time/ORC 8/31-9/2 828 RVs 3.4 O+ - 43 50 Univ. of IA 8/4-13 617 LVs 3.9 O KS 6 51 38 POS (R) 10/5-6 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 63 31 ARG (R) 9/7-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 49 36 TargetPoint(R) 6/27-7/1 3004 RVs 1.8 M+ - 45 41 CperSecrest(D) 6/5-8 808 LVs 3.4 M - 51 40 Research 2000 6/2-4 600 LVs 4.0 M+ KY 8 53 41 Mason-Dixon 9/22-25 717 LVs 3.7 M+ - 55 37 Research 2000 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 57 37 ARG (R) 9/8-12 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 50 31 V/C Resrch (R) 6/15-17 601 LVs 4.0 M+ LA 9 50 43 ARG (R) 9/9-12 600 LVs 4.0 M - 52 36 SoMedia/OpnRsr 6/26-28 600 LVs 4.0 M+ ME^ 4 35 52 Mellman Grp(D) 9/30-10/2 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 38 52 Research 2000 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 51 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 31 51 CrticalInsghts 6/1-27 602 RVs 4.0 O+ - 32 46 PanAtlanticSMS 6/10-18 400 Adl 4.9 O+ MD 10 39 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 38 52 Gonzales 8/29-9/5 833 RVs 3.4 O+ MA 12 39 55 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 38 47 Suffolk Univ. 7/31-8/3 400 RVs 4.9 O MI 17 39 44 MIRS/D-N/Ross. 10/1-4 600 RVs 4.0 O - 45 48 StrtegicVis(R) 9/22-24 1200 LVs 2.8 O - 38 51 Selzer & Co. 9/22-24 602 LVs 4.0 O+ - 42 49 GQR (D) 9/21-24 760 LVs 3.6 O - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 755 LVs 3.6 O - 45 45 Mason-Dixon 9/18-23 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 38 48 EPIC-MRA 9/20-22 406 LVs 4.9 O+ - 39 47 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 406 RVs 4.9 O - 44 48 Quinnipiac Unv 9/14-21 1364 LVs 2.7 O - 46 43 MRG of Lansing 9/15-20 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 48 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 52 Marist College 9/16-17 599 LVs 4.0 O+ - 44 48 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 628 RVs 3.9 O MN 10 46 47 ARG (R) 10/4-7 600 LVs 4.0 O - 40 54 PRN/Univ of MN 10/3-5 418 LVs 4.8 O+ - 37 55 PRSAI/StarTrib 9/30-10/2 1084 LVs 2.9 O+ - 43 54 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 849 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 47 Quinnipiac Unv 9/14-21 1301 LVs 2.7 O - 45 47 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 610 RVs 4.0 O MS 6 55 39 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 52 39 Research 2000 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ MO 11 49 46 ARG (R) 10/4-6 600 LVs 4.0 M - 48 49 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 744 LVs 3.6 O - 47 46 Research 2000 9/22-24 800 LVs 3.5 M MT 3 50 45 ARG (R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 M - 52 39 Research 2000 9/22-24 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 54 43 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 737 LVs 3.6 M+ - 47 39 Mason-Dixon 5/19-21 625 LVs 3.9 M+ NE^ 5 60 34 ARG (R) 9/12-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 57 29 Research 2000 5/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ NV 5 43 50 Resarch 2000 10/3-6 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 684 LVs 3.7 O - 49 47 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 45 Suffolk Univ. 9/17-21 600 LVs 4.0 M - 45 47 Myers/Grove(D) 9/14-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 46 39 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M NH 4 43 52 ARG (R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 45 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 813 LVs 3.4 O+ - 37 49 St.Anselm/SRBI 9/25-30 823 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 46 StrtegicVis(R) 9/22-24 800 LVs 3.5 O - 44 48 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 46 Suffolk Univ. 9/21-24 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 44 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 403 RVs 4.9 O - 45 51 Marist College 9/17-21 604 LVs 4.0 O - 47 45 WMUR/UNH Gran. 9/14-21 523 LVs 4.3 M - 42 39 Dartmouth Clge 4/28-5/2 401 RVs 4.9 M NJ 15 37 50 FDU/PublicMind 9/29-10/5 790 LVs 3.5 O+ - 39 48 StrtegicVis(R) 9/26-28 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 42 51 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 49 Monmouth/Gann. 9/11-14 589 LVs 4.0 O - 45 48 Quinnipiac Unv 9/10-14 1187 LVs 2.8 O - 41 50 Research 2000 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 45 48 Marist College 9/5-8 584 LVs 4.1 O NM 5 40 45 ABQ Journal 9/29-10/2 659 LVs 3.8 O - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 49 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 O - 40 53 CNN/Time/ORC 8/24-26 659 RVs 3.8 O+ - 45 41 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M NY 31 36 58 Siena College 9/28-30 631 RVs 3.9 O+ - 38 55 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 36 57 Quinnipiac Unv 7/31-8/4 1353 LVs 2.7 O+ - 32 51 New York Times 6/6-11 931 RVs 3.2 0+ NC 15 43 48 Tel Opinion(R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 O - 49 49 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 666 RVs 3.8 -- - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 55 38 Research 2000 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 49 46 GarinHrtYng(D) 9/5-7 605 LVs 4.0 M - 47 44 GQR (D) 8/20-26 852 LVs 3.4 M ND 3 53 40 Research 2000 9/16-17 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 52 43 ARG (R) 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 40 43 DFM Research 8/23-27 400 LVs 4.9 O OH 20 46 48 StrtegicVis(R) 10/6-8 1200 LVs 2.8 O - 45 48 ARG (R) 10/4-7 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 50 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 749 LVs 3.6 O - 45 51 ABC/WaPo/TNS 10/3-5 772 LVs 3.5 O - 42 49 Columbus Disp. 9/24-10/3 2262 RVs 2.1 O+ - 43 49 GQR (D) 9/29-10/1 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 50 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 825 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 46 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 619 RVs 3.9 O - 48 42 Univ. of Cinc. 9/12-16 869 LVs 3.3 M - 45 47 Marist College 9/11-15 565 LVs 4.1 O - 42 41 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 400 RVs 4.9 M - 46 42 Suffolk Univ. 9/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 M OK 7 59 36 Research 2000 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 61 34 ARG (R) 9/15-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 46 24 Sooner Poll 7/19-23 750 LVs 3.6 M+ OR 7 39 53 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 52 ARG (R) 9/19-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 50 DavisHibbitts 9/11-14 500 RVs 4.4 O+ - 37 43 Moore Info (R) 9/10-11 400 RVs 4.9 O - 39 46 Hoffman (R) 9/8-9 600 RVs 4.0 O PA 21 40 54 StrtegicVis(R) 10/5-7 1200 LVs 2.8 O+ - 38 50 Muhlenberg Clg 10/3-7 602 LVs 4.0 O+ - 39 54 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 832 LVs 3.4 O+ - 38 45 F&M College 9/23-28 767 RVs 3.5 O - 44 53 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 730 LVs 3.6 O+ - 46 50 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O - 41 43 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 406 RVs 4.9 O - 44 46 Mason-Dixon 9/16-18 625 LVs 3.9 O - 45 45 Univ. Of WI 9/14-17 608 RVs 4.0 -- - 44 49 Marist College 9/11-15 535 LVs 4.2 O - 41 46 Susquehanna 8/11-14 700 LVs 3.7 O RI 4 26 48 OpinionFactor 9/30-10/1 1140 Adl 2.9 O+ - 31 45 RI College 9/17-24 742 RVs 3.6 O+ - 34 47 Brown Univ. 9/15-16 652 RVs 3.8 O+ - 33 59 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 25 53 Opinion Factor 6/18-27 500 RVs 4.4 O+ SC 8 54 39 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 53 40 Rich. Quinn(R) 9/22-23 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 59 37 ARG (R) 9/14-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 53 40 Research 2000 7/22-23 500 LVs 4.4 M+ SD 3 55 39 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ TN 11 55 35 MTSU 9/15-27 357 LVs 5.2 M+ - 55 39 Mason-Dixon 9/22-24 625 LVs 3.9 M+ - 59 36 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 51 36 AyresMcHnry(R) 8/10-12 500 RVs 4.4 M+ TX 34 57 38 ARG (R) 10/5-8 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 43 33 Univ. of TX 7/18-30 668 RVs 3.8 M+ - 52 36 Baselice (R) 5/20-25 1005 RVs 3.1 M+ UT 5 65 29 ARG (R) 9/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 62 24 DanJonesAssoc 9/8-11 601 RVs 4.0 M+ - 62 23 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M+ VT 3 38 56 ARG (R) 9/18-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 36 55 Research 2000 9/11-14 400 LVs 4.9 O+ VA 13 39 51 Suffolk Univ. 10/3-5 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 48 45 Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 625 LVs 3.9 M - 44 53 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 684 LVs 3.7 O+ - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 49 ABC/WaPo/TNS 9/18-21 698 LVs 3.7 O - 48 41 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 409 RVs 4.8 M - 48 39 CNU 9/10-14 500 RVs 4.4 M+ WA 11 44 50 ARG (R) 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 47 StrtegicVis(R) 9/14-16 800 LVs 3.5 O - 38 45 Elway Poll 9/6-8 450 RVs 4.6 O - 37 47 Moore Info (R) 7/9-10 400 RVs 4.9 O+ - 39 47 Strtegs360 (D) 6/21-26 1200 RVs 2.8 O+ WV 5 42 50 ARG (R) 10/4-8 600 LVs 4.0 O - 50 46 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 694 LVs 3.7 M - 44 39 Blankenship 9/5-8 432 RVs 4.7 M WI 10 41 51 Research 2000 10/5-6 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 859 LVs 3.3 O - 40 49 StrtegicVis(R) 9/26-28 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 45 50 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 49 Quinnipiac Unv 9/14-21 1313 LVs 2.7 O+ - 44 45 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 616 RVs 3.9 O - 38 44 WPRI 8/3-4 600 LVs 4.0 O WY 3 57 36 Research 2000 9/22-24 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 66 28 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 62 25 Mason-Dixon 8/13-15 400 LVs 4.9 M+
Key
SYMBOL STATES M McCain Leads Within The M.O.E. M+ McCain Leads Outside The M.O.E. O Obama Leads Within The M.O.E. O+ Obama Leads Outside The M.O.E. -- Poll Is Tied
^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)