Battle For The Electoral College: Solid States Of Matter
Since the 10/10 update, 14 new matchups have been released in 12 states, and Barack Obama now leads the Hotline's Electoral College projection with 361 EVs to John McCain's 177 EVs. On Fri., Obama led 349 EVs to 180 EVs, while 9 EVs were toss-up.
Even more striking than Obama's 184 EV overall lead is his total among solid states. The Dem nominee holds a 297-143 EV edge in states where a candidate has a statistically significant advantage. Obama crosses the 270 EV threshold necessary for election without even accounting for states he leads within the margin of error.
In total, there are 11 new swing state polls included in this edition of Battle. Obama leads nine, including six by significant margins. McCain leads the remaining two within the margin of error.
Much of Obama's success in today's update is driven by a series of Quinnipiac Univ./Wall Street Journal/washingtonpost.com polls released this a.m. The four surveys -- conducted 10/8-12 in CO, MI, MN and WI -- each show the IL Sen. with a solid lead. As a result, MI and MN moved from lean Obama to solid Obama, and CO went from toss-up to solid Obama -- accounting in full for his 36 additional solid EVs.
Battle For The Electoral College now reflects all state polls conducted entirely since the conclusion of the GOP convo on 9/4. As always, the most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
(CARRIE DINDINO)
For a full explanation of classification symbols, see the key below the chart.
Electoral Distribution
McCAIN STATES OBAMA STATES M Lean McCain 34 O Lean Obama 64 M+ Solid McCain 143 O+ Solid Obama 297 Total 177 Total 361
State-By-State Polling
St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE +/- LEAD AL 9 55% 35% CSRC 10/2,10/6-7 554 LVs 4.2% M+ - 58 36 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 52 25 Univ of So. AL 9/8-15 406 LVs 4.9 M+ AK 3 55 37 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 38 Research 2000 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 39 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+ AR 6 53 41 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 M+ AZ 10 45 38 AZ State Univ. 9/25-28 976 RVs 3.1 M+ - 56 39 ARG (R) 9/11-14 600 LVs 4.0 M+ CA 55 39 53 ARG (R) 9/18-20 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 50 PPIC 9/9-16 1157 LVs 2.9 O+ - 36 52 Field Poll 9/5-14 830 LVs 3.4 O+ CO 9 43 52 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1088 LVs 3.0 O+ - 44 44 Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 48 45 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 794 LVs 3.5 O - 43 44 Ciruli Assoc. 9/19-23 501 RVs 4.4 O - 44 45 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 O CT 7 30 47 Pulsar 9/19-23 500 LVs 4.4 O+ - 49 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O DE 3 38 56 West Chester U 10/6-8 429 LVs 4.7 O+ - 36 56 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 51 ARG (R) 9/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+ DC 3 13 82 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ FL 27 44 52 StrtegicVis(R) 10/6-8 1200 LVs 2.8 O+ - 44 49 Research 2000 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 O - 46 48 Mason-Dixon 10/4-6 625 LVs 3.9 O - 45 42 FL Chamb/Comrc 9/30-10/1 619 RVs 3.9 M - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 770 LVs 3.5 O - 42 46 Suffolk Univ. 9/27-30 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 51 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 836 LVs 3.4 O+ - 46 47 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 45 SEA Polling 9/14-17 800 RVs 3.5 M - 44 44 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 -- GA 15 50 43 StrtegicVis(R) 10/5-7 800 LVs 3.5 M+ - 50 43 Research 2000 9/29-10/1 600 LVs 4.0 M - 57 39 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 56 35 POS (R) 9/8-11 800 LVs 3.5 M+ HI 4 32 63 ARG (R) 9/7-12 600 LVs 4.0 O+ ID 4 62 33 Research 2000 9/16-17 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 68 25 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ IL 21 36 56 Research 2000 9/15-18 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 37 53 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 628 RVs 3.9 O+ - 45 51 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 O IN 11 51 46 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 677 LVs 3.8 M - 46 46 Research 2000 9/29-10/3 800 LVs 3.5 -- - 47 44 ARG (R) 9/14-18 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 43 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 612 RVs 4.0 M - 44 47 Selzer & Co. 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O IA 7 39 55 Research 2000 9/29-30 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 51 Marist College 9/18-21 467 LVs 4.5 O+ - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/17-20 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 45 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 643 RVs 3.9 -- - 40 52 Selzer & Co. 9/8-10 616 LVs 3.9 O+ KS 6 51 38 POS (R) 10/5-6 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 63 31 ARG (R) 9/7-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ KY 8 53 41 Mason-Dixon 9/22-25 717 LVs 3.7 M+ - 55 37 Research 2000 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 57 37 ARG (R) 9/8-12 600 LVs 4.0 M+ LA 9 50 43 ARG (R) 9/9-12 600 LVs 4.0 M ME^ 4 35 52 Mellman Grp(D) 9/30-10/2 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 38 52 Research 2000 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 51 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 O+ MD 10 39 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O+ MA 12 39 55 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ MI 17 38 54 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1043 LVs 3.0 O+ - 39 44 MIRS/D-N/Ross. 10/1-4 600 RVs 4.0 O - 45 48 StrtegicVis(R) 9/22-24 1200 LVs 2.8 O - 38 51 Selzer & Co. 9/22-24 602 LVs 4.0 O+ - 42 49 GQR (D) 9/21-24 760 LVs 3.6 O - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 755 LVs 3.6 O - 45 45 Mason-Dixon 9/18-23 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 38 48 EPIC-MRA 9/20-22 406 LVs 4.9 O+ - 39 47 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 406 RVs 4.9 O - 46 43 MRG of Lansing 9/15-20 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 48 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 52 Marist College 9/16-17 599 LVs 4.0 O+ - 44 48 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 628 RVs 3.9 O MN 10 40 51 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1019 LVs 3.1 O+ - 46 47 ARG (R) 10/4-7 600 LVs 4.0 O - 40 54 PRN/Univ of MN 10/3-5 418 LVs 4.8 O+ - 37 55 PRSAI/StarTrib 9/30-10/2 1084 LVs 2.9 O+ - 43 54 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 849 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 47 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 610 RVs 4.0 O MS 6 55 39 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 52 39 Research 2000 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ MO 11 49 46 ARG (R) 10/4-6 600 LVs 4.0 M - 48 49 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 744 LVs 3.6 O - 47 46 Research 2000 9/22-24 800 LVs 3.5 M MT 3 50 45 ARG (R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 M - 52 39 Research 2000 9/22-24 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 54 43 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 737 LVs 3.6 M+ NE^ 5 60 34 ARG (R) 9/12-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ NV 5 45 47 Mason-Dixon 10/8-9 625 LVs 3.9 O - 43 50 Resarch 2000 10/3-6 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 684 LVs 3.7 O - 49 47 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 45 Suffolk Univ. 9/17-21 600 LVs 4.0 M - 45 47 Myers/Grove(D) 9/14-19 600 LVs 4.0 O NH 4 43 52 ARG (R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 45 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 813 LVs 3.4 O+ - 37 49 St.Anselm/SRBI 9/25-30 823 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 46 StrtegicVis(R) 9/22-24 800 LVs 3.5 O - 44 48 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 46 Suffolk Univ. 9/21-24 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 44 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 403 RVs 4.9 O - 45 51 Marist College 9/17-21 604 LVs 4.0 O - 47 45 WMUR/UNH Gran. 9/14-21 523 LVs 4.3 M NJ 15 37 50 FDU/PublicMind 9/29-10/5 790 LVs 3.5 O+ - 39 48 StrtegicVis(R) 9/26-28 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 42 51 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 49 Monmouth/Gann. 9/11-14 589 LVs 4.0 O - 45 48 Quinnipiac Unv 9/10-14 1187 LVs 2.8 O - 41 50 Research 2000 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 45 48 Marist College 9/5-8 584 LVs 4.1 O NM 5 40 45 ABQ Journal 9/29-10/2 659 LVs 3.8 O - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 49 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 O NY 31 36 58 Siena College 9/28-30 631 RVs 3.9 O+ - 38 55 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O+ NC 15 43 48 Tel Opinion(R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 O - 48 46 WSOC-TV 10/6-7 500 LVs 4.4 M - 49 49 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 666 RVs 3.8 -- - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 55 38 Research 2000 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 49 46 GarinHrtYng(D) 9/5-7 605 LVs 4.0 M ND 3 43 45 Forum/MSUM 10/6-8 606 LVs 4.0 O - 53 40 Research 2000 9/16-17 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 52 43 ARG (R) 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ OH 20 46 48 StrtegicVis(R) 10/6-8 1200 LVs 2.8 O - 45 49 Marist College 10/5-8 771 LVs 3.5 O - 48 46 Univ. of Cinc. 10/4-8 876 LVs 3.3 M - 45 48 ARG (R) 10/4-7 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 50 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 749 LVs 3.6 O - 45 51 ABC/WaPo/TNS 10/3-5 772 LVs 3.5 O - 42 49 Columbus Disp. 9/24-10/3 2262 RVs 2.1 O+ - 43 49 GQR (D) 9/29-10/1 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 50 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 825 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 46 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 619 RVs 3.9 O - 42 41 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 400 RVs 4.9 M - 46 42 Suffolk Univ. 9/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 M OK 7 59 36 Research 2000 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 61 34 ARG (R) 9/15-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ OR 7 39 53 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 52 ARG (R) 9/19-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 50 DavisHibbitts 9/11-14 500 RVs 4.4 O+ - 37 43 Moore Info (R) 9/10-11 400 RVs 4.9 O - 39 46 Hoffman (R) 9/8-9 600 RVs 4.0 O PA 21 38 51 Muhlenberg Clg 10/9-13 580 LVs 4.1 O+ - 41 53 Marist College 10/5-8 757 LVs 3.6 O+ - 40 54 StrtegicVis(R) 10/5-7 1200 LVs 2.8 O+ - 39 54 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 832 LVs 3.4 O+ - 38 45 F&M College 9/23-28 767 RVs 3.5 O - 44 53 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 730 LVs 3.6 O+ - 46 50 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O - 41 43 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 406 RVs 4.9 O - 44 46 Mason-Dixon 9/16-18 625 LVs 3.9 O - 45 45 Univ. Of WI 9/14-17 608 RVs 4.0 -- RI 4 26 48 OpinionFactor 9/30-10/1 1140 Adl 2.9 O+ - 31 45 RI College 9/17-24 742 RVs 3.6 O+ - 34 47 Brown Univ. 9/15-16 652 RVs 3.8 O+ - 33 59 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ SC 8 54 39 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 53 40 Rich. Quinn(R) 9/22-23 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 59 37 ARG (R) 9/14-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ SD 3 55 39 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ TN 11 55 35 MTSU 9/15-27 357 LVs 5.2 M+ - 55 39 Mason-Dixon 9/22-24 625 LVs 3.9 M+ - 59 36 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 M+ TX 34 57 38 ARG (R) 10/5-8 600 LVs 4.0 M+ UT 5 65 29 ARG (R) 9/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 62 24 DanJonesAssoc 9/8-11 601 RVs 4.0 M+ VT 3 38 56 ARG (R) 9/18-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 36 55 Research 2000 9/11-14 400 LVs 4.9 O+ VA 13 39 51 Suffolk Univ. 10/3-5 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 48 45 Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 625 LVs 3.9 M - 44 53 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 684 LVs 3.7 O+ - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 49 ABC/WaPo/TNS 9/18-21 698 LVs 3.7 O - 48 41 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 409 RVs 4.8 M - 48 39 CNU 9/10-14 500 RVs 4.4 M+ WA 11 44 50 ARG (R) 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 47 StrtegicVis(R) 9/14-16 800 LVs 3.5 O - 38 45 Elway Poll 9/6-8 450 RVs 4.6 O WV 5 42 50 ARG (R) 10/4-8 600 LVs 4.0 O - 50 46 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 694 LVs 3.7 M - 44 39 Blankenship 9/5-8 432 RVs 4.7 M WI 10 37 54 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1201 LVs 2.8 O+ - 41 51 Research 2000 10/5-6 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 859 LVs 3.3 O - 40 49 StrtegicVis(R) 9/26-28 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 45 50 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 O - 44 45 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 616 RVs 3.9 O WY 3 57 36 Research 2000 9/22-24 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 66 28 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+
Key
SYMBOL STATES M McCain Leads Within The M.O.E. M+ McCain Leads Outside The M.O.E. O Obama Leads Within The M.O.E. O+ Obama Leads Outside The M.O.E. -- Poll Is Tied
^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)