Battle For The Electoral College: Drought Conditions
With 28 new WH polls out in 21 different states since the 10/17 Electoral College projection, Barack Obama maintains his commanding overall advantage and now holds more than 270 solid EVs. Obama leads John McCain 353 EVs to 182 EVs with 3 toss-up EVs, slightly down from his Fri. margin of 361 EVs to 177 EVs. Among solid EVs, Obama leads 277 EVs to 128 EVs.
The largest shift in EVs was caused by a new Suffolk Univ. poll which moved OH (20 EVs) from lean Obama to solid Obama. The Dem nominee's net increase among solid states, however, was offset by a Concord Monitor/Research 2000 poll which sent NH (4 EVs) from solid Obama to lean Obama.
Obama also lost two states since the previous update. A new NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll returned WV to lean McCain, and a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll moved ND and its 3 EVs to toss-up. Both had previously rested as lean Obama.
In all, Obama leads nine of the 11 new battleground state polls, including seven beyond the margin of error. McCain meanwhile leads both the remaining swing state polls -- a Suffolk Univ. poll in MO and a NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll in OH -- by just 1%. Once again, the GOP nominee lacks a statistically significant swing state lead; in fact, there is not a single battleground poll showing McCain with a solid lead on the EV chart.
The chart available after the jump reflects all state polls conducted fully since the conclusion of the GOP convo on 9/4. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
(CARRIE DINDINO)
For a full explanation of classification symbols, see the key below the chart.
Electoral Distribution
McCAIN STATES OBAMA STATES TOSS-UP STATES M Lean McCain 54 O Lean Obama 76 -- 3 M+ Solid McCain 128 O+ Solid Obama 277 Total 182 Total 353
State-By-State Polling
St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE +/- LEAD AL 9 55% 35% CSRC 10/2,10/6-7 554 LVs 4.2% M+ - 58 36 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 52 25 Univ of So. AL 9/8-15 406 LVs 4.9 M+ AK 3 57 38 Research 2000 10/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 37 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 39 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+ AR 6 53 41 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 M+ AZ 10 45 38 AZ State Univ. 9/25-28 976 RVs 3.1 M+ - 56 39 ARG (R) 9/11-14 600 LVs 4.0 M+ CA 55 39 53 ARG (R) 9/18-20 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 50 PPIC 9/9-16 1157 LVs 2.9 O+ - 36 52 Field Poll 9/5-14 830 LVs 3.4 O+ CO 9 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/11-14 762 LVs 3.6 O - 43 47 Suffolk Univ. 10/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 52 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1088 LVs 3.0 O+ - 44 44 Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 48 45 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 M - 43 44 Ciruli Assoc. 9/19-23 501 RVs 4.4 O - 44 45 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 O CT 7 30 47 Pulsar 9/19-23 500 LVs 4.4 O+ - 49 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O DE 3 38 56 West Chester U 10/6-8 429 LVs 4.7 O+ - 36 56 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 51 ARG (R) 9/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+ DC 3 13 82 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ FL 27 45 49 Research 2000 10/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 47 Hamilton (D) 10/10-15 700 LVs 3.7 O - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/11-14 765 LVs 3.5 O - 44 52 StrtegicVis(R) 10/6-8 1200 LVs 2.8 O+ - 46 48 Mason-Dixon 10/4-6 625 LVs 3.9 O - 45 42 FL Chamb/Comrc 9/30-10/1 619 RVs 3.9 M - 42 46 Suffolk Univ. 9/27-30 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 51 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 836 LVs 3.4 O+ - 46 47 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 45 SEA Polling 9/14-17 800 RVs 3.5 M - 44 44 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 -- GA 15 48 45 GQR (D) 10/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 M - 49 43 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 M - 53 45 CNN/Time/ORC 10/11-14 718 LVs 3.7 M+ - 50 43 StrtegicVis(R) 10/5-7 800 LVs 3.5 M+ - 57 39 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 56 35 POS (R) 9/8-11 800 LVs 3.5 M+ HI 4 32 63 ARG (R) 9/7-12 600 LVs 4.0 O+ ID 4 62 33 Research 2000 9/16-17 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 68 25 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ IL 21 32 56 ChicagoTribune 10/16-18 500 LVs 4.4 O+ - 36 56 Research 2000 9/15-18 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 37 53 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 628 RVs 3.9 O+ - 45 51 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 O IN 11 51 46 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 677 LVs 3.8 M - 46 46 Research 2000 9/29-10/3 800 LVs 3.5 -- - 47 44 ARG (R) 9/14-18 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 43 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 612 RVs 4.0 M - 44 47 Selzer & Co. 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O IA 7 39 55 Research 2000 9/29-30 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 51 Marist College 9/18-21 467 LVs 4.5 O+ - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/17-20 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 45 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 643 RVs 3.9 -- - 40 52 Selzer & Co. 9/8-10 616 LVs 3.9 O+ KS 6 51 38 POS (R) 10/5-6 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 63 31 ARG (R) 9/7-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ KY 8 53 39 Research 2000 10/15-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 53 41 Mason-Dixon 9/22-25 717 LVs 3.7 M+ - 57 37 ARG (R) 9/8-12 600 LVs 4.0 M+ LA 9 50 43 ARG (R) 9/9-12 600 LVs 4.0 M ME^ 4 38 55 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 35 52 Mellman Grp(D) 9/30-10/2 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 51 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 O+ MD 10 39 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O+ MA 12 39 55 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ MI 17 38 54 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1043 LVs 3.0 O+ - 39 44 MIRS/D-N/Ross. 10/1-4 600 RVs 4.0 O - 45 48 StrtegicVis(R) 9/22-24 1200 LVs 2.8 O - 38 51 Selzer & Co. 9/22-24 602 LVs 4.0 O+ - 42 49 GQR (D) 9/21-24 760 LVs 3.6 O - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 755 LVs 3.6 O - 45 45 Mason-Dixon 9/18-23 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 38 48 EPIC-MRA 9/20-22 406 LVs 4.9 O+ - 39 47 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 406 RVs 4.9 O - 46 43 MRG of Lansing 9/15-20 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 48 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 52 Marist College 9/16-17 599 LVs 4.0 O+ - 44 48 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 628 RVs 3.9 O MN 10 41 52 PRSAI/StarTrib 10/16-17 1049 LVs 3.0 O+ - 39 52 Research 2000 10/15-16 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 51 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1019 LVs 3.1 O+ - 46 47 ARG (R) 10/4-7 600 LVs 4.0 O - 40 54 PRN/Univ of MN 10/3-5 418 LVs 4.8 O+ - 43 54 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 849 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 47 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 610 RVs 4.0 O MS 6 50 40 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 39 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ MO 11 45 44 Suffolk Univ. 10/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 M - 49 48 CNN/Time/ORC 10/11-14 763 LVs 3.5 M - 49 46 ARG (R) 10/4-6 600 LVs 4.0 M - 47 46 Research 2000 9/22-24 800 LVs 3.5 M MT 3 49 45 Research 2000 10/15-16 500 LVs 4.4 M - 50 45 ARG (R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 M - 54 43 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 737 LVs 3.6 M+ NE^ 5 60 34 ARG (R) 9/12-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ NV 5 44 47 Magellan (D) 10/10-11 602 LVs 4.0 O - 45 47 Mason-Dixon 10/8-9 625 LVs 3.9 O - 43 50 Resarch 2000 10/3-6 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 684 LVs 3.7 O - 49 47 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 45 Suffolk Univ. 9/17-21 600 LVs 4.0 M - 45 47 Myers/Grove(D) 9/14-19 600 LVs 4.0 O NH 4 43 50 Research 2000 10/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 52 ARG (R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 45 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 813 LVs 3.4 O+ - 37 49 St.Anselm/SRBI 9/25-30 823 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 46 StrtegicVis(R) 9/22-24 800 LVs 3.5 O - 45 46 Suffolk Univ. 9/21-24 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 44 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 403 RVs 4.9 O - 45 51 Marist College 9/17-21 604 LVs 4.0 O - 47 45 WMUR/UNH Gran. 9/14-21 523 LVs 4.3 M NJ 15 36 59 Quinnipiac Unv 10/16-19 1184 LVs 2.8 O+ - 38 55 Monmouth/Gann. 10/15-18 723 LVs 3.6 O+ - 37 50 FDU/PublicMind 9/29-10/5 790 LVs 3.5 O+ - 39 48 StrtegicVis(R) 9/26-28 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 42 51 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 50 Research 2000 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 45 48 Marist College 9/5-8 584 LVs 4.1 O NM 5 40 45 ABQ Journal 9/29-10/2 659 LVs 3.8 O - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 49 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 O NY 31 36 58 Siena College 9/28-30 631 RVs 3.9 O+ - 38 55 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O+ NC 15 44 46 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 48 Tel Opinion(R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 O - 48 46 WSOC-TV 10/6-7 500 LVs 4.4 M - 49 49 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 666 RVs 3.8 -- - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 49 46 GarinHrtYng(D) 9/5-7 605 LVs 4.0 M ND 3 45 45 Research 2000 10/14-15 500 LVs 4.4 -- - 41 44 DFM Research 10/13-14 500 Adl 4.4 O - 43 45 Forum/MSUM 10/6-8 606 LVs 4.0 O - 52 43 ARG (R) 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ OH 20 42 51 Suffolk Univ. 10/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 46 45 Mason-Dixon 10/16-17 625 LVs 3.9 M - 46 48 StrtegicVis(R) 10/6-8 1200 LVs 2.8 O - 45 49 Marist College 10/5-8 771 LVs 3.5 O - 48 46 Univ. of Cinc. 10/4-8 876 LVs 3.3 M - 45 48 ARG (R) 10/4-7 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 50 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 749 LVs 3.6 O - 45 51 ABC/WaPo/TNS 10/3-5 772 LVs 3.5 O - 42 49 Columbus Disp. 9/24-10/3 2262 RVs 2.1 O+ - 43 49 GQR (D) 9/29-10/1 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 50 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 825 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 46 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 619 RVs 3.9 O - 42 41 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 400 RVs 4.9 M OK 7 59 36 Research 2000 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 61 34 ARG (R) 9/15-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ OR 7 38 53 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 39 52 Grove (D) 10/7-9 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 52 ARG (R) 9/19-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 50 DavisHibbitts 9/11-14 500 RVs 4.4 O+ - 37 43 Moore Info (R) 9/10-11 400 RVs 4.9 O - 39 46 Hoffman (R) 9/8-9 600 RVs 4.0 O PA 21 42 52 Muhlenberg Clg 10/16-20 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 48 Susquehanna(R) 10/16-18 700 LVs 3.7 O+ - 41 53 Marist College 10/5-8 757 LVs 3.6 O+ - 40 54 StrtegicVis(R) 10/5-7 1200 LVs 2.8 O+ - 39 54 Quinnipiac Unv 9/27-29 832 LVs 3.4 O+ - 38 45 F&M College 9/23-28 767 RVs 3.5 O - 44 53 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 730 LVs 3.6 O+ - 46 50 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O - 41 43 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 406 RVs 4.9 O - 44 46 Mason-Dixon 9/16-18 625 LVs 3.9 O - 45 45 Univ. Of WI 9/14-17 608 RVs 4.0 -- RI 4 26 48 OpinionFactor 9/30-10/1 1140 Adl 2.9 O+ - 31 45 RI College 9/17-24 742 RVs 3.6 O+ - 34 47 Brown Univ. 9/15-16 652 RVs 3.8 O+ - 33 59 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ SC 8 54 39 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 53 40 Rich. Quinn(R) 9/22-23 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 59 37 ARG (R) 9/14-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ SD 3 55 39 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ TN 11 54 39 AyresMcHnry(R) 10/12-15 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 35 MTSU 9/15-27 357 LVs 5.2 M+ - 55 39 Mason-Dixon 9/22-24 625 LVs 3.9 M+ - 59 36 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 M+ TX 34 52 40 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 57 38 ARG (R) 10/5-8 600 LVs 4.0 M+ UT 5 65 29 ARG (R) 9/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 62 24 DanJonesAssoc 9/8-11 601 RVs 4.0 M+ VT 3 29 51 Macro Int'l 10/9-12 400 RVs 4.9 O+ - 38 56 ARG (R) 9/18-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 36 55 Research 2000 9/11-14 400 LVs 4.9 O+ VA 13 43 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/11-14 698 LVs 3.7 O+ - 43 49 CNU 10/11-14 500 LVs 4.4 O - 39 51 Suffolk Univ. 10/3-5 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 48 45 Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 625 LVs 3.9 M - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 49 ABC/WaPo/TNS 9/18-21 698 LVs 3.7 O - 48 41 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 409 RVs 4.8 M WA 11 44 50 ARG (R) 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 47 StrtegicVis(R) 9/14-16 800 LVs 3.5 O - 38 45 Elway Poll 9/6-8 450 RVs 4.6 O WV 5 47 41 Mason-Dixon 10/16-17 625 LVs 3.9 M - 42 50 ARG (R) 10/4-8 600 LVs 4.0 O - 50 46 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 694 LVs 3.7 M - 44 39 Blankenship 9/5-8 432 RVs 4.7 M WI 10 39 51 Mason-Dixon 10/16-17 625 LVs 3.9 O+ - 36 51 U of WI-Milwau 10/8-15 434 Adl 4.7 O+ - 37 54 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1201 LVs 2.8 O+ - 41 51 Research 2000 10/5-6 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 859 LVs 3.3 O - 40 49 StrtegicVis(R) 9/26-28 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 45 50 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 O - 44 45 Univ. of WI 9/14-17 616 RVs 3.9 O WY 3 58 35 Research 2000 10/14-16 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 58 32 Mason-Dixon 10/13-14 625 LVs 3.9 M+ - 66 28 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+
Key
SYMBOL STATES M McCain Leads Within The M.O.E. M+ McCain Leads Outside The M.O.E. O Obama Leads Within The M.O.E. O+ Obama Leads Outside The M.O.E. -- Poll Is Tied
^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
