Battle For The Electoral College: Passenger 57
With 73 new state matchups released since the previous update, Battle For The Electoral College is slightly overwhelmed. Barack Obama's overall EV margin has increased since 10/28, although his solid EV advantage has decreased. Obama now leads John McCain 364 EVs to 171 EVs; among solid EVs, he's up 251 EVs to 123 EVs.
Obama leads 51 of the 57 new battleground state polls, including 26 beyond the margin of error. McCain leads four within the margin of error, and the remaining two are tied. The most polled states since the 10/28 edition are PA (8), FL (6), NH (6), OH (6), NC (5) and VA (5).
The chart available after the jump reflects all state polls conducted fully since the conclusion of the GOP convo on 9/4. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
(CARRIE DINDINO)
For a full explanation of classification symbols, see the key below the chart.
Electoral Distribution
McCAIN STATES OBAMA STATES TOSS-UP STATES M Lean McCain 48 O Lean Obama 113 -- 3 M+ Solid McCain 123 O+ Solid Obama 251 Total 171 Total 364
State-By-State Polling
St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE +/- LEAD AL 9 54% 34% CSRC 10/15-21 606 LVs 4.0% M+ - 58 36 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 52 25 Univ of So. AL 9/8-15 406 LVs 4.9 M+ AK 3 53 42 Ivan Moore (D) 10/17-19 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 57 38 Research 2000 10/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 37 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 39 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+ AR 6 52 41 Research 2000 10/21-22 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 49 36 Univ. of AR 10/1-21 1628 Adl 2.4 M+ - 53 41 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 M+ AZ 10 48 44 Mason-Dixon 10/27-28 625 LVs 3.9 M - 53 46 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 807 LVs 3.4 M+ - 49 41 Northern AZ U. 10/18-27 600 RVs 4.0 M - 46 44 AZ State Univ. 10/23-26 1019 RVs 3.1 M - 48 44 Myers/Grove(D) 10/23-24 600 LVs 4.0 M - 44 42 Zimmerman (D) 10/16-19 408 LVs 4.9 M - 56 39 ARG (R) 9/11-14 600 LVs 4.0 M+ CA 55 33 55 Field Poll 10/18-28 966 LVs 3.2 O+ - 33 56 PPIC 10/12-19 1186 LVs 2.8 O+ - 39 53 ARG (R) 9/18-20 600 LVs 4.0 O+ CO 9 45 51 Marist College 10/27-28 682 LVs 3.8 O - 45 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 774 LVs 3.5 O+ - 44 48 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 409 RVs 4.8 O - 41 50 AP/GfK 10/22-26 626 LVs 3.9 O+ - 40 52 POS(R)/RBI(D) 10/21-23 500 LVs 4.4 O+ - 43 47 Suffolk Univ. 10/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 52 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1088 LVs 3.0 O+ - 44 44 Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 48 45 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 M - 43 44 Ciruli Assoc. 9/19-23 501 RVs 4.4 O CT 7 31 56 Univ. of CT 10/18-22 502 LVs 4.4 O+ - 30 47 Pulsar 9/19-23 500 LVs 4.4 O+ - 49 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O DE 3 38 56 West Chester U 10/6-8 429 LVs 4.7 O+ - 36 56 FDU/PublicMind 9/17-21 601 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 51 ARG (R) 9/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+ DC 3 13 82 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ FL 27 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 747 LVs 3.6 O - 41 45 FL Chamb/Comrc 10/26-27 601 LVs 4.0 O - 43 50 LAT/Bloomberg 10/25-27 639 LVs 3.9 O - 44 45 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 408 RVs 4.9 0 - 47 47 Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26 603 LVs 4.0 -- - 44 49 Suffolk Univ. 10/23-26 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 47 Quinnipiac Unv 10/22-26 1435 LVs 2.6 O - 43 45 AP/GfK 10/22-26 600 LVs 4.0 O - 48 46 StrtegicVis(R) 10/20-22 1200 LVs 2.8 M - 42 49 St.Pete/BayNws 10/20-22 800 RVs 3.5 O+ - 46 45 Mason-Dixon 10/20-21 625 LVs 3.9 M - 45 49 Research 2000 10/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 47 Hamilton (D) 10/10-15 700 LVs 3.7 O - 46 47 ARG (R) 9/23-25 600 LVs 4.0 O - 47 45 SEA Polling 9/14-17 800 RVs 3.5 M GA 15 52 47 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 690 LVs 3.7 M - 49 43 Mason-Dixon 10/22-23 625 LVs 3.9 M - 51 45 StrtegicVis(R) 10/20-22 800 LVs 3.5 M - 48 45 GQR (D) 10/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 M - 49 43 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 M - 57 39 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 56 35 POS (R) 9/8-11 800 LVs 3.5 M+ HI 4 32 63 ARG (R) 9/7-12 600 LVs 4.0 O+ ID 4 55 32 Harstad (D) 10/19-22 503 LVs 4.4 M+ - 62 33 Research 2000 9/16-17 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 68 25 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ IL 21 35 59 Research 2000 10/20-23 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 32 61 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 572 RVs 4.1 O+ - 32 56 ChicagoTribune 10/16-18 500 LVs 4.4 O+ - 45 51 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 O IN 11 45 46 Selzer & Co. 10/26-28 606 LVs 4.0 O - 47 47 Research 2000 10/24-28 800 LVs 3.5 -- - 50 44 Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26 601 LVs 4.0 M - 47 45 Howey/Gauge 10/23-24 600 LVs 4.0 M - 42 51 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 586 RVs 4.0 O+ - 51 46 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 677 LVs 3.8 M - 47 44 ARG (R) 9/14-18 600 LVs 4.0 M IA 7 39 53 Research 2000 10/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 42 52 Marist College 10/23-24 645 LVs 3.8 O+ - 40 51 Mason-Dixon 10/22-23 625 LVs 3.9 O+ - 39 52 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 586 RVs 4.0 O+ - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/17-20 600 LVs 4.0 O - 40 52 Selzer & Co. 9/8-10 616 LVs 3.9 O+ KS 6 51 38 POS (R) 10/5-6 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 63 31 ARG (R) 9/7-10 600 LVs 4.0 M+ KY 8 55 39 Research 2000 10/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 53 41 Mason-Dixon 9/22-25 717 LVs 3.7 M+ - 57 37 ARG (R) 9/8-12 600 LVs 4.0 M+ LA 9 43 40 Loyola Univ. 10/24-26 500 RVs 4.4 M - 51 39 SE LA Univ. 10/20-23 503 RVs 4.4 M+ - 50 43 ARG (R) 9/9-12 600 LVs 4.0 M ME^ 4 33 52 Mrkt Decisions 10/13-26 425 Adl 4.8 O+ - 35 56 Crit. Insights 10/16-19 443 LVs 4.7 O+ - 39 51 PanAtlanticSMS 10/13-16 400 LVs 4.9 O+ - 38 55 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 35 52 Mellman Grp(D) 9/30-10/2 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 51 ARG (R) 9/8-10 600 LVs 4.0 O+ MD 10 39 54 ARG (R) 9/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O+ MA 12 34 53 Suffolk Univ. 10/20-22 400 RVs 4.9 O+ - 39 55 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ MI 17 41 54 StrtegicVis(R) 10/27-29 1200 LVs 2.8 O+ - 38 50 EPIC-MRA 10/26-28 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 36 58 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 562 RVs 4.1 O+ - 38 54 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1043 LVs 3.0 O+ - 39 44 MIRS/D-N/Ross. 10/1-4 600 RVs 4.0 O - 38 51 Selzer & Co. 9/22-24 602 LVs 4.0 O+ - 42 49 GQR (D) 9/21-24 760 LVs 3.6 O - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 755 LVs 3.6 O - 45 45 Mason-Dixon 9/18-23 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 39 47 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 406 RVs 4.9 O - 46 43 MRG of Lansing 9/15-20 600 LVs 4.0 M - 46 48 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 52 Marist College 9/16-17 599 LVs 4.0 O+ MN 10 40 48 Mason-Dixon 10/27-28 625 LVs 3.9 O+ - 37 56 PRN/Univ of MN 10/24-28 451 LVs 4.6 O+ - 38 57 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 583 RVs 4.1 O+ - 38 43 St. Cloud St. 10/14-22 466 RVs 4.5 O - 40 50 FD/NatlJournal 10/16-20 402 RVs 4.9 O+ - 41 52 PRSAI/StarTrib 10/16-17 1049 LVs 3.0 O+ - 39 52 Research 2000 10/15-16 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 51 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1019 LVs 3.1 O+ - 46 47 ARG (R) 10/4-7 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 54 CNN/Time/ORC 9/28-30 849 LVs 3.4 O+ MS 6 46 33 Univ of So. AL 10/13-23 405 LVs 4.9 M+ - 50 40 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 39 ARG (R) 9/13-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ MO 11 50 48 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 825 LVs 3.4 M - 46 48 Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26 601 LVs 4.0 O - 46 45 Mason-Dixon 10/22-23 625 LVs 3.9 M - 47 48 Research 2000 10/20-23 800 LVs 3.5 O - 45 44 Suffolk Univ. 10/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 M - 49 46 ARG (R) 10/4-6 600 LVs 4.0 M MT 3 48 44 Mason-Dixon 10/23-25 625 LVs 3.9 M - 40 44 MTSU-Billings 10/16-20 403 LVs 4.9 O - 49 45 Research 2000 10/15-16 500 LVs 4.4 M - 50 45 ARG (R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 M - 54 43 CNN/Time/ORC 9/21-23 737 LVs 3.6 M+ NE^ 5 60 34 ARG (R) 9/12-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ NV 5 45 50 Resarch 2000 10/25-28 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 52 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 684 LVs 3.7 O - 40 50 Suffolk Univ. 10/23-27 450 LVs 4.6 O+ - 44 48 Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26 601 LVs 4.0 O - 40 52 AP/GfK 10/22-26 628 LVs 3.9 O+ - 44 47 Magellan (D) 10/10-11 602 LVs 4.0 O - 45 47 Mason-Dixon 10/8-9 625 LVs 3.9 O - 49 47 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 45 47 Myers/Grove(D) 9/14-19 600 LVs 4.0 O NH 4 41 50 StrtegicVis(R) 10/27-29 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 36 54 Univ. of NH 10/27-29 619 LVs 3.9 O+ - 40 53 Suffolk Univ. 10/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 37 55 AP/GfK 10/22-26 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 39 50 Mason-Dixon 10/23-25 625 LVs 3.9 O+ - 45 50 Marist College 10/22-23 655 LVs 3.8 O - 44 48 POS (R) 10/20-22 525 LVs 4.3 O - 43 50 Research 2000 10/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 52 ARG (R) 10/6-8 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 45 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 813 LVs 3.4 O+ - 37 49 St.Anselm/SRBI 9/25-30 823 LVs 3.4 O+ - 43 44 FD/NatlJournal 9/18-22 403 RVs 4.9 O NJ 15 35 53 FDU/PublicMind 10/23-29 852 LVs 3.4 O+ - 38 54 Research 2000 10/26-28 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 38 53 StrtegicVis(R) 10/24-26 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 39 56 Marist College 10/20-21 628 LVs 3.9 O+ - 36 59 Quinnipiac Unv 10/16-19 1184 LVs 2.8 O+ - 38 55 Monmouth/Gann. 10/15-18 723 LVs 3.6 O+ - 42 51 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 O+ NM 5 40 45 ABQ Journal 9/29-10/2 659 LVs 3.8 O - 44 51 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 49 FD/NatlJournal 9/11-15 402 RVs 4.9 O NY 31 29 65 Marist College 10/21-22 527 LVs 4.3 O+ - 31 62 Siena College 10/19-21 721 LVs 3.6 O+ - 38 55 ARG (R) 9/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 O+ NC 15 46 47 Tel Opinion(R) 10/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 O - 46 52 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 667 LVs 3.8 O - 43 47 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 402 RVs 4.9 O - 46 50 Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26 601 LVs 4.0 O - 46 48 AP/GfK 10/22-26 601 LVs 4.0 O - 47 47 Mason-Dixon 10/23-25 625 LVs 3.9 -- - 44 45 Winthrop/ETV 9/28-10/19 744 LVs 3.6 O - 44 46 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 O - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M - 49 46 GarinHrtYng(D) 9/5-7 605 LVs 4.0 M ND 3 45 45 Research 2000 10/14-15 500 LVs 4.4 -- - 41 44 DFM Research 10/13-14 500 Adl 4.4 O - 43 45 Forum/MSUM 10/6-8 606 LVs 4.0 O - 52 43 ARG (R) 9/15-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ OH 20 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 779 LVs 3.5 O - 40 49 LAT/Bloomberg 10/25-27 644 LVs 3.9 O+ - 41 48 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 404 RVs 4.9 O - 45 48 Marist College 10/24-26 661 LVs 3.8 O - 45 50 Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 51 Quinnipiac Unv 10/22-26 1425 LVs 2.6 O+ - 41 48 AP/GfK 10/22-26 607 LVs 4.0 O - 48 45 StrtegicVis(R) 10/20-22 1200 LVs 2.8 M - 41 53 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 564 RVs 4.1 O+ - 46 49 Univ. of Cinc. 10/18-22 886 LVs 3.3 O - 42 51 Suffolk Univ. 10/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 46 45 Mason-Dixon 10/16-17 625 LVs 3.9 M - 45 48 ARG (R) 10/4-7 600 LVs 4.0 O - 45 51 ABC/WaPo/TNS 10/3-5 772 LVs 3.5 O - 42 49 Columbus Disp. 9/24-10/3 2262 RVs 2.1 O+ - 43 49 GQR (D) 9/29-10/1 600 LVs 4.0 O OK 7 61 35 POS (R) 10/23,10/26 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 59 36 Research 2000 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 61 34 ARG (R) 9/15-18 600 LVs 4.0 M+ OR 7 37 51 Moore Info (R) 10/27-28 400 RVs 4.9 O+ - 34 48 Riley Research 10/10-20 499 RVs 4.4 O+ - 38 53 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 39 52 Grove (D) 10/7-9 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 52 ARG (R) 9/19-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 50 DavisHibbitts 9/11-14 500 RVs 4.4 O+ - 39 46 Hoffman (R) 9/8-9 600 RVs 4.0 O PA 21 44 49 StrtegicVis(R) 10/27-29 1200 LVs 2.8 O - 41 54 Muhlenberg Clg 10/25-29 602 LVs 4.0 O+ - 43 47 Mason-Dixon 10/27-28 625 LVs 3.9 O - 43 55 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 768 LVs 3.5 O+ - 41 55 Marist College 10/26-27 713 LVs 3.7 O+ - 41 53 Quinnipiac Unv 10/22-26 1364 LVs 2.7 O+ - 40 52 AP/GfK 10/22-26 607 LVs 4.0 O+ - 40 53 F&M College 10/21-26 555 LVs 4.2 O+ - 43 52 Temple Univ. 10/20-26 761 LVs 3.6 O+ - 42 52 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 566 RVs 4.1 O+ - 41 51 FD/NatlJournal 10/16-20 412 RVs 4.8 O+ - 40 48 Susquehanna(R) 10/16-18 700 LVs 3.7 O+ - 46 50 ARG (R) 9/20-22 600 LVs 4.0 O RI 4 26 48 OpinionFactor 9/30-10/1 1140 Adl 2.9 O+ - 31 45 RI College 9/17-24 742 RVs 3.6 O+ - 34 47 Brown Univ. 9/15-16 652 RVs 3.8 O+ - 33 59 ARG (R) 9/11-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+ SC 8 53 42 NBC/PSRAI 10/25-28 400 LVs 4.9 M+ - 55 35 Winthrop/ETV 9/28-10/19 617 LVs 3.9 M+ - 54 39 Research 2000 9/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 53 40 Rich. Quinn(R) 9/22-23 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 59 37 ARG (R) 9/14-17 600 LVs 4.0 M+ SD 3 50 41 Research 2000 10/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 48 41 Mason-Dixon 10/13-15 800 RVs 3.5 M+ - 55 39 ARG (R) 9/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ TN 11 54 38 Research 2000 10/21-22 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 54 39 AyresMcHnry(R) 10/12-15 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 55 35 MTSU 9/15-27 357 LVs 5.2 M+ - 55 39 Mason-Dixon 9/22-24 625 LVs 3.9 M+ - 59 36 ARG (R) 9/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 M+ TX 34 51 40 Univ. of TX 10/15-22 550 RVs 4.2 M+ - 52 40 Research 2000 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 57 38 ARG (R) 10/5-8 600 LVs 4.0 M+ UT 5 55 32 Mason-Dixon 10/23-25 625 LVs 3.9 M+ - 65 29 ARG (R) 9/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 62 24 DanJonesAssoc 9/8-11 601 RVs 4.0 M+ VT 3 36 57 Research 2000 10/24-26 400 LVs 4.9 O+ - 29 51 Macro Int'l 10/9-12 400 RVs 4.9 O+ - 38 56 ARG (R) 9/18-22 600 LVs 4.0 O+ VA 13 44 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 721 LVs 3.6 O+ - 47 51 Marist College 10/26-27 671 LVs 3.8 O - 44 48 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 404 RVs 4.9 O - 45 52 Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26 600 LVs 4.0 O - 42 49 AP/GfK 10/22-26 601 LVs 4.0 O - 39 48 RoanokeCollege 10/19-26 614 LVs 4.0 O+ - 44 52 ABC/WaPo/TNS 10/22-25 784 LVs 3.5 O+ - 40 51 VCU 10/20-22 817 LVs 3.4 O+ - 45 47 Mason-Dixon 10/20-21 625 LVs 3.9 O - 44 45 Winthrop/ETV 9/28-10/19 665 LVs 3.8 O - 43 49 CNU 10/11-14 500 LVs 4.4 O - 39 51 Suffolk Univ. 10/3-5 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 49 46 ARG (R) 9/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 M WA 11 42 54 StrtegicVis(R) 10/25-26 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 34 55 Univ. of WA 10/18-26 600 RVs 4.0 O+ - 36 55 Elway Poll 10/16-19 405 RVs 4.9 O+ - 44 50 ARG (R) 9/16-18 600 LVs 4.0 O WV 5 50 40 Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 49 43 Research 2000 10/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 M - 49 44 Orion Strg (D) 10/20-21 600 RVs 4.0 M - 53 44 CNN/Time/ORC 10/19-21 674 LVs 3.8 M+ - 47 41 Mason-Dixon 10/16-17 625 LVs 3.9 M - 42 41 Rainmaker (D) 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 M - 42 50 ARG (R) 10/4-8 600 LVs 4.0 O - 44 39 Blankenship 9/5-8 432 RVs 4.7 M WI 10 42 53 Research 2000 10/27-28 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 41 50 StrtegicVis(R) 10/24-26 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 41 53 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 584 RVs 4.1 O+ - 40 53 FD/NatlJournal 10/16-20 405 RVs 4.9 O+ - 39 51 Mason-Dixon 10/16-17 625 LVs 3.9 O+ - 38 51 WPR/St.Norbert 10/9-17 400 LVs 4.9 O+ - 36 51 U of WI-Milwau 10/8-15 434 Adl 4.7 O+ - 37 54 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1201 LVs 2.8 O+ - 46 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/3-6 859 LVs 3.3 O - 45 50 ARG (R) 9/18-21 600 LVs 4.0 O WY 3 58 35 Research 2000 10/14-16 500 LVs 4.4 M+ - 58 32 Mason-Dixon 10/13-14 625 LVs 3.9 M+ - 66 28 ARG (R) 9/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+
Key
SYMBOL STATES M McCain Leads Within The M.O.E. M+ McCain Leads Outside The M.O.E. O Obama Leads Within The M.O.E. O+ Obama Leads Outside The M.O.E. -- Poll Is Tied
^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.