California Dreaming?
We're seeing some wacky polling in House races lately:
Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL 24) down 24%. And Rep. Lee Terry (R-NE 02) leading by just 1% in a CD that gave Pres. Bush 60% in '04. Really?
You can now add Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA 50) to the new heap of GOP incumbents who should be suddenly very worried. A new poll, conducted for atty/ex-San Diego City prosecutor Nick Leibham's (D) camp, shows him trailing Bilbray by a miniscule 44-42% margin.
This may feel like deja vu for GOPers. In the '06 special election to fill imprisoned-Rep. Duke Cunningham's (R) term, Bilbray needed $4.5M from the NRCC to skate by a relatively lackluster Dem. What's worrisome for Bilbray is that the cash-starved NRCC can't afford to put anywhere near that amount in his CD to save it this year. And the DCCC has enough cash, if it chooses to enter the contest, to make a difference. The NRCC simply can't afford to overwhelm Dem efforts here like they did in '06.
And CA-50 is just a microcosm of what's going on nationally for GOPers. The landscape right now is just nasty. It's the same environment that has put once-solid Reps. like Mark Souder (R-IN 03) and Henry Brown (R-SC 01) in real contests. Incumbents that haven't had races in a long time are now having to gear up. And it may be too late to save some of them.
Polls like these remind us that Dems didn't knock off all the low-hanging fruit in the House in '06. The difference is that the DCCC now has the cash advantage to attempt to finish the job.
UPDATE: The Bilbray camp released its own poll this p.m. showing a 48-35% lead for the GOPer, and notes that it has just begun its media campaign, so it expects Bilbray's numbers to rise. We'll see in a few weeks if Bilbray's or Leibham's version of this race is the correct one. The answer will tell us if Dems will pick up a ton of seats this cycle (25+), or just a lot (around 20).
(TIM SAHD)
Nick Leibham makes me proud to be from San Diego! GET READY America!
This latest poll is both a tribute to Nick Leibham as the kind of person we want to send to Congress, and it is also a reflection of the general level of discontent that exists with the current regime. Who would have thought that a democrat, even one as good as Leibham, would have a shot at defeating an incumbent republican in the typically conservative 50th District of California? The tide is certainly changing.
Lackluster Dem in 2006? Francine was bursting with energy & ideas and put together a grass roots team like this district had never seen. Alas, if you're a middle-aged female who's not "you betcha" perky, you're going to get all kinds of put-down labels. While we're thrilled to have a candidate like Nick, Francine got results a Dem had never seen in the 50th--she paved the way for this (hoped for) victory. Tort
As a former city prosecutor, Nick Liebham is the right candidate for North San Diego County.
As a former city prosecutor, Nick Liebham is the right candidate for North San Diego County.
This is great news!! WTG!! Alright Nick!
Liebham will not win, and it will not be close. Bilbray is a true conservative and will work to reduce the copious spending of the past 8 years. He voted against the bailout and this was the right move; the bailout is a waste of our money. Please don't vote for Leibham just because he's not a republican. Bilbray by 10+ points.