Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: The Early Line
Obama/Biden 48%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 6%
- Obama continues to hold a double-digit advantage in battleground states. The IL Sen. leads 51-38% among LVs in CO, MI, NH, NM, NV, FL, OH, PA, VA and WI.
- The number of LVs who feel the U.S. is headed in the right direction has hit a new record low. Just 7% say things are going in the right direction, while 86% say things are seriously off on the wrong track.
- Obama has expanded his margin on the economy. The Dem nominee leads 50-36% on who LVs feel would do the best job handling the U.S. economy. This 14% lead is his largest advantage on the economy since he led 48-34% in the survey completed 9/25. His 50% share is also the first time either candidate has hit the halfway mark in a month.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/10-12 by FD, surveyed 823 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 40%D, 37%R, 18%I.
For subscribers, look to today's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
Isn't the 18% number a bit low in this sample for independents? Thougts?
The sample of independents (only 18%) isn't that low? Thoughts?
Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 40%D, 37%R, 18%I.
There is no reason to believe that the republicans are closing the Party ID gap. Your poll is way off. The right Party ID numbers right now should show 5-10% more democrats.
The Dems had only a 3% advantage in 1996, when Clinton won big.
Most polls are oversampling Dems.
Watch the polls "tighten" in the final two weeks so the pollsters can claim they were "accurate".
The Dems had only a 3% advantage in 1996, when Clinton won big.
Most polls are oversampling Dems.
Watch the polls "tighten" in the final two weeks so the pollsters can claim they were "accurate".