Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: The Early Line
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 40%
Undec 7%
- Obama's 10% lead in today's Diageo/Hotline release equals his largest advantage ever in the tracking poll. The Dem nominee also led 50-40% in the poll completed 10/10.
- Obama now leads 50-37% on who would do the best job handling the economy, the fifth consecutive day he has led the issue by double digits. 66% of LVs and 67% of Indies believe the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S.
- The candidates meanwhile remain basically deadlocked on energy issues. 43% think Obama would do the best job managing U.S. energy policies, while 42% say McCain. Neither candidate has had a statistically significant lead on energy since the survey completed 10/10.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/14-16 by FD, surveyed 804 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.
For subscribers, look to today's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
This poll continues to confound. Every other tracking poll, Includinf DailyKos, shows significant tightening towards McCain in last two days. Hotline, meanwhile, heads in the opposite direction.
Get with it guys, you are embarassing yourselves.
Gallup O+2
Rasmussen O+4
Battleground O+4
Zogby O+3.5 (one day polling yesterday)
DailyKos O+6 (one day polling yesterday)
Hotline +10 and growing.
Sorry Bill,
Don't get your hopes up. It's a stable race...just read Rasmussen. Statistical noise...McCain's still going to lose.
Sorry Bill,
Don't get your hopes up. It's a stable race...just read Rasmussen. Statistical noise...McCain's still going to lose.
"Get with it"?
Are you suggesting they change their data to support your hypothesis?
Seriously, the notion of "significant tightening" is wrong. A one point shift is not significant. What we are seeing is regression from what were extreme scores, not movement to McCain or away from Obama.
Gallup +2???
LOL. Are you a cherry picker by trade?
Gallup RV Model +6
Gallup LV 2008 Model +6
Gallup LV 2004 Model +2
Just so we're clear, Zogby was showing Obama at +5% yesterday, not +3.5%. Keep in mind, a few of these polls switch from "Registered Voter" to "Likely Voter" models in the last few weeks of the race, so tightening is typically a function of methodology(especially when a Dem is leading). Regardless, for each day we get closer to the election, the nat'l polls become increasingly meaningless, and the state polls become increasingly important. I'd be paying a whole lot more attention to what's happening in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio than to what's happening in these daily horserace numbers.
Bill,
Stop cherrypicking polls!
Watch other channels, stop being glued to FOX channel.
If you don't like the poll results you are seing make your own poll numbers.
Can't we all just get along!!!!!!!!!
The polls are remarkably consistent, with the exception of Zogby who is seeing a collapse in Independent support for Obama. All the others, including the GOP supporting Scott Rasmussen are saying the same thing: McCain solidified his base on Wednesday but nothing more. Obama still leads where it matters - amongst women and Independents, and that isn't changing.