Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: The Early Line
Obama/Biden 47%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 8%
- Obama's 5% lead in today's Diageo/Hotline release is his smallest advantage in the tracker since the poll conducted 10/5-7.
- After leading white LVs by just 2% as recently as 8/10, McCain has now held a 9% margin for three consecutive days.
- The enthusiasm gap between the candidates is now 16%. 68% of Obama supporters say they are enthusiastically supporting the Dem nominee, while 52% of McCain supporters say the same. One week ago, in the survey completed 10/12, the gap was 21% -- with 65% enthusiastically for Obama and just 44% enthusiastically for McCain.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/17-19 by FD, surveyed 789 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 40%D, 37%R, 18%I.
For subscribers, look to today's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
Obama up 48/41 on Sunday when you count 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.
Obama is up 47/42 today when you count 40%D, 37%R, 18%I.
So in a single day D's go from +5 to +3 and Obama's margin reduces by -2.
Last month D's were +8 in your poll.
So let me ask Hotline a simple questions:
1. Why does your sampling vary so much from day to day and week to week?
2. Don't you agree that as R's sampling increases Obama's margin reduces accordingly.
Hotline: please be honest and for once address this issue.
Sigh.
More games with Party ID. 40D 37R ?? Yeah right.
Today's state polls:
VA (Ramsmussen)
Obama 54%
McCain 44%
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OH (Suffolk)
Obama 51%
McCain 42%
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MN (SUSA)
Obama 50%
McCain 44%
If Obama is the "Messiah" why does he only have a 5 point lead? Shouldn't he be up by 15% by now? It's not surprising that many Americans who know that Obama's socialist-style economics will be bad are goosing up the 'wrong track' numbers.
I think America is going off-track: Too much govt meddling, too many bailouts, too much pork spending, a (Pelosi) Democrat Congress that is incompetent, too much vacillation in foreign policy, too many judges who legislate from the bench, taxes too high, not enough to secure borders.
On every single one of these issues, bad-choice Barack takes us further in the wrong direction. So, given the expectation of Obama winning and taking us further into the muck of bad policies, many will say we are on the 'wrong track'.
Bush screwed things up and Obama will screw them up more. On one hand you have a large spender and you trade that one in for a larger taxer. Egads if you people don't get it the only way to stimulate growth is through cutting taxes while curb spending. Perhaps Obama might want to go about it mildly but Reid and Pelosi don't. Bill Clinton lost congress in 94 and Obama better be careful or he will run that same risk. Pelosi and Reid scare me more than Obama.