Feeling Groovy

With 11 days to go, Barack Obama's campaign is feeling good about its position in several of the big battleground states, due to the strength of their ground operations, enthusiasm among supporters and early voting data, campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters on a conference call this afternoon.

Plouffe said the campaign had a strong base of support in Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia He said the fact that Obama’s position had strengthened in Virginia and Colorado was “one of more the significant moments in the election" and that when it came to states President Bush won in 2004, the campaign was playing more offense than defense.

Plouffe said the campaign had seen progress in Nevada, Florida and Ohio, though the race in the states would be very competitive and very close.

“Our whole strategy has been predicated on the fact that these battleground states are going to be decided very narrowly, so that’s what we’re preparing for, and don’t pay too much attention to polling right now,” Plouffe said. “We assume that there’s gonna be some tightening, and we assume that some of these states are gonna be decided narrowly. So that’s the kind of operation we’ve built in these states is an operation that could help us win a very close election.”

He said there was a pathway to win in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and West Virginia – a state he called a jump ball – but that the races would be very close and the likelihood they would win all is low. He stressed that campaigning in Indiana and North Carolina had forced McCain to go on the defensive by spending a lot of time and money there.

Plouffe said the focus on the economy was helping Obama in Ohio, where he argued McCain had a big burden because he would have to exceed Bush’s turnout numbers by a significant margin, and that by Monday in Florida, early voting numbers among Democrats could help the campaign erase the advantage Republicans have shown with absentees.

“So the fact is we think we might head into the election with some margin already in the bank which is unusual for a Democrat” in Florida, he said.

Also on the call were national field director Jon Carson and battleground state director Jen O’Malley, who discussed early voting patterns among Democrats and voter contact and ground organization in the battlegrounds.

O’Malley said the campaign had about 1.5 million active volunteers across the country, 770 offices and that volunteers are having conversations with an average of about 400,000 voters a day. She said that campaign has had some 12 million conversations with voters nationwide since Labor Day, including 1.3 million voters in Florida and 1.5 million in Ohio, and these voter contacts were especially important with Democrats who are first-time voters or only vote sporadically.

She said big crowds at events - like the 175,000 people who came out to see Obama in Missouri recently and the 120,000 people who attended events in Florida last week – were giving a boost to their volunteer staffs in those states.

Carson said early voting numbers showed Democrats were voting at significantly higher rates than Republicans in several states, that greater percentages of Democrats were voting early this election year and that many of those voters were new or sporadic voters, or those who only vote in presidential elections.

More by the numbers (per the campaign)

*Campaign estimates Democrats have a more than 110,000 voter registration advantage, in Nevada. Obama doing well in northern Nevada and they expect him to rack up big margins in Clark County.

*Campaign says Georgia and North Dakota are tightening up

*In North Carolina, 520,000 Democrats have voted early so far, and 56% of early voters are Democrats this year. In 2004, Democrats made up 48% of early voters. He said while more Democrats had voted early this time around than in 2004, Republicans saw 100,000 fewer early voters at this point than in the last election. Of the 816,000 new Democrats, 9% have voted early, while 6% of the 533,000 new Republicans have requested mail in ballots; 18% of Democrats voting early are new Democrats.

*In Nevada, Democrats made up 53% of early voters, compared to 32% Republicans. In 2004, when Democrats made up 45% of early voters to 41% Republicans. Forty percent Democrats voting early are new or sporadic Democrats, while 30% of early voting Republicans are new or sporadic Republican voters.

*In Iowa, 50% votes already cast were by Democrats, 29% by Republicans. In 2004, 48% of early voters were Democrats compared to 30% Republicans. Some 36 percent of Democrats who are voting early are new or sporadic voters, compared to 25% of Republicans.

*In New Mexico, 54% percent of early voters are Democrats, while early voters made up only 50% in 2004.

*In Colorado, Democrats make up 39% of all votes cast so far, compared to 38% for Republicans. Carson said of the 234,000 Democrats who have never voted in a general election and 43% of them have requested mail in ballots, while just 36% of the 196,000 new Republicans in the state have requested a mail in ballot. Twenty percent of the Democrats who have already voted by mail are new voters.

(NBC/NJ's ATHENA JONES)