Geaux Figure
In the last primary of the cycle, LA proved once again that it enjoys the political spotlight. Tonight's results showed Rep. Bill Jefferson (D-LA 02) surviving to fight another day, while GOPers caught a break in their struggle to hold onto a Shreveport-area CD.
In LA-04, physician John Fleming (R) and businessman Chris Gorman (R) took 35% and 34%, respectively, and will head to a 11/4 runoff. But those two headed into the night as the expected runoff contenders, and the surprise came on the Dem side, where Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche (D) was unexpectedly forced into a runoff against ret. Army Col./atty Willie Banks (D). Carmouche took 48% to Banks' 23%.
Carmouche came into the race highly touted, as his law and order credentials, along with his moderate social positions, make him an attractive candidate for Dems. He also spent nearly $500K during the primary, vastly outspending the other three candidates, who spent only $200K collectively.
One of Carmouche's supposed advantages in this race was that he'd be able to sit on the sidelines while GOPers fought a bloody primary. Now, he'll face a race against Banks, an African-American in a runoff where African-Americans outnumber whites.*** This will be a tricky runoff for Carmouche, as he'll need to win while not alienating African-American voters, who will be crucial for him in the general.
GOPers will have their own struggles, though. Both Fleming and Gorman are both self-funders, which means this runoff could get very ugly. But Carmouche's unexpected runoff gives the GOP a break here, and their prospects are looking just a bit brighter in a CD that was looking like a tough hold for the party just a few days ago.
In LA-02, with 72% of the vote, the embattled Jefferson took 25% of the vote, and will head into the runoff, likely against ex-TV anchor Helena Moreno (D), the only white candidate in primary, who took 22%. Five other Dems combined for the rest. Jefferson's trial, where he stands accused of taking bribes and money laundering, is scheduled to begin in Dec.
In '06, Jefferson faced a 13-member primary, and emerged with a slim plurality. He faced a popular state Rep. Karen Carter (D) in what many thought would be Jefferson's swan song. Instead, he prevailed rather comfortably, 57-43%. Will the same fate befall Moreno on 11/4?
*** CORRECTION: Indies as well as Dems can vote in the LA-04 runoffs, so African-Americans likely will not outnumber whites in this race. Among Dems only, African-Americans outnumber whites 48.9% to 48.8% in registration. But in the universe of indie and Dem voters, that total is 54% white and 41% African-American. We regret the error.
(TIM SAHD)
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