Hotline After Dark -- Reality Bites

With the Senate's passage of the bailout bill last night, the package now moves to the House. Pols and pundits weighed in on its chances of passing there:

Ex-Speaker Denny Hastert: "There's a very good chance. This is one of the classic situations you see that the Senate has taken advantage of the House not being able to pass something. They move something past, and they'll just stick to it the House. The Senate will adjourn and go home. If the House doesn't pass it, this thing weighs on their plate again, and so I think the leadership will be very, very active this time, and they'll probably do a vote count before they bring it to the floor this time" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 10/1).

House Financial Services Cmte Chair Barney Frank (D-MA): "I think it is likelier to pass than before. But the major difference, frankly, is not what the Senate did. ... Representatives and senators have rarely taken each other as role models. There is not a lot of love lost between the branches. What I think has changed this is reality. On Monday, there were a number of people who were still skeptical that there would be some serious economic difficulty. ... Once it failed, a number of people began to hear about economic difficulty. ... It hit some members. To be honest, I think some of my colleagues on Monday were voting no and praying yes" ("AC 360," CNN, 10/1).

NBC's Viqueira: "It is a momentum builder, and it really adds the pressure on the House" ("Rachel Maddow Show," MSNBC, 10/1).

After the jump, bailout bill's impact on WH '08 and all eyes on Biden, Palin and Ifill.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Karl Rove: "I think the vote in the Senate will bring some pressure to bear in the House, and the addition of the deposit insurance expansion will bring some conservatives, but let's not kid ourselves. This was a 205-228 vote in the House. I wouldn't be surprised to see it flop the other way, but that means, really, there are only 15 or 20 members of the House Democrats and Republicans move from no to yes. ... I
think the House passes the Senate bill. The House wants to get out" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 10/1).

The Nation's Vanden Heuvel: "You've got a different scenario there than in the Senate, because they're all up for re-election. ... They are closer to the ground. They're listening to their constituents.So I'm not sure how that's going to factor in. It's a much more obstreperous body" ("LKL," CNN, 10/1).

Guests also discussed the bill's impact on the WH '08 race:

CNN's Henry: "John McCain is breathing a sigh of relief tonight. ... When it stalled in the House, John McCain was really in the spotlight. And any bad economic news, with the Republicans running the White House, is bad for John McCain. ... Now, all of a sudden, all eyes turn to the House of Representatives, a lot of pressure on Speaker Pelosi and, by extension, some pressure on Barack Obama to deliver more Democratic votes. And, in fact, that is why Barack Obama today, in addition to coming back to the Capitol, was working the phones, calling House Democrats. ... All of a sudden, Obama is stepping up his lobbying. He knows he now, as he gets more involved in this, he has more at stake, just like John McCain does" ("AC 360," 10/1).

FNC's Garrett: "Both campaigns would like to see the debate on the economy now move beyond this -- I would say that's more true of the
McCain campaign than the Obama campaign -- because they would like to get back on the other aspects of the U.S. economy, not so much this rescue bill. ... This is still an issue that's a net negative for both sides, and they would like to get beyond it. With the Senate now voting, they have a chance to do just that" ("On the Record," 10/1).

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "Both men have a lot to lose if the House votes it down on Friday or whatever day it happens. If the Republicans are responsible for defeating it yet once again, John McCain will pay a huge price. But if the Democrats now peel away and they defeat it, then Barack Obama is going to pay a big price. Each man has a lot on the line" ("AC 360," CNN, 10/1).
BAILOUT BILL/WH '08 politics

NOT NAMING NAMES

In the series "Vice Presidential Questions," Joe Biden and Sarah Palin answered the same set of questions on the "Evening News" last night.

CBS' Couric: "Why do you think Roe v. Wade was a good decision?"

Biden: "Because I think it's as close to a consensus that can exist in a society as heterogeneous as ours. What does it say? It says in the first three months, that decision should be left to the woman. Then the second three months, Roe v. Wade says, well, then the state, the government has a role, along with the woman's health. They have a right to have some impact on that. In the third three months, they say the weight of the government's input is on the fetus being carried. And so that sort of has reflected about as close as I think anyone's ever going to get in this heterogeneous, this multicultural society, of religious people, as to some sort of--not consensus, but as close as it gets. I think the liberty clause of the Fourteenth Amendment is -- offers a right to privacy."

More Biden: "Now, that's one of the big debates I had with my conservative scholar friends, that they say, you know, unless a right is enumerated, unless it's actually -- unless it uses the word 'privacy' in the Constitution, then no such constitutional right exists. Well, I think people have an inherent right."

Couric: "Are there Supreme Court decisions you disagree with?"

Biden: "You know, I'm the guy that wrote the Violence Against Women Act, and I said that every woman in America, if they are beaten and abused by a man, should be able to take that person to court, and meaning you should be able to go to federal court and sue in federal court the man who abused you, if you can prove that abuse. But they said, no ... there is no federal jurisdiction. ... They acknowledged I held about 1,000 hours of hearings proving that there's an effect on interstate commerce. Women who are abused and beaten are women who are not able to be in the work force. And the Supreme Court said, 'Well, there is an impact on commerce, but this is federalizing a private crime, and we're not going to allow it.' I think the Supreme Court was wrong about that decision."

Couric: "Why, in your view, is Roe v. Wade a bad decision?"

Palin: "I think it should be a state's issue, not federal government mandating yes or no on such an important issue. I'm, in that sense, a federalist, where I believe that states should have more say in the laws of their lands and individual areas. Now, foundationally, also, though, it's no secret that I'm pro-life, that I believe that a culture of life is very important for this country, and personally that's what I would like to see further embraced by America."

Couric: "Do you think there's an inherent right to privacy in the Constitution?"

Palin: "I do, yeah. I do."

Couric: "That's the cornerstone of Roe v. Wade."

Palin: "I do, and I believe that individual states can best handle what the people within the different constituencies in the 50 states would like to see their will ushered in in an issue like that."

Couric: "What other Supreme Court decisions do you disagree with?"

Palin: "Mm. Well, let's see, there's, of course, in the great history of America, there have been rulings that there's never going to be absolute consensus by every American, and there are those issues, again, like Roe v. Wade, where I believe are best held on a state level and addressed there. So, you know, going through the history of America, there would be others, but..."

Couric: "Can you think of any?"

Palin: "Well, I would think of any, again, that could be best be dealt with on a more local level. Maybe I would take issue with, but, you know, as a mayor and then as a governor, and even as a vice president, if I'm so privileged to serve, would be in a position of changing those things. But in supporting the law of the land as it reads today."

Couric: "Thomas Jefferson wrote, about the First Amendment, building a wall of separation between church and state. Why do you think that's so important?"

Palin: "His intention in expressing that was so that government did not mandate a religion on the people; and Thomas Jefferson also said never underestimate the wisdom of the people. And the wisdom of the people, I think, in this issue is that people have the right and the ability and the desire to express their own religious views, be it on a very personal level, which is where I choose to express my faith, or in a more public forum, and the wisdom of the people, thankfully, ingrained in the foundation of our country, is so extremely important. And Thomas Jefferson wanted to protect that."

Biden: "The best way to look at it is look at every state where that wall is not built, look at every country in the world where religion is able to impact on the governance. Almost every one of those countries, there's real turmoil. Look, the founders were pretty smart. They had gone through, you know, several hundred years of wars, religious wars. They were in the midst of religious wars in Europe, and they figured it out. The best way to do this is keep the government out of religion. They took religion out of government, but they didn't mean religion couldn't be in the public place, in the public square" (CBS, 10/1).

Tonight, Couric will ask Biden and Palin the best thing and worst thing Dick Cheney has done as VP.

BAD MEDICINE

There was a lot of debate advice for the VP candidates, as well as discussion about moderator/PBS' Gwen Ifill's book about Obama.

NBC pol. dir. Chuck Todd, on Palin: "Tomorrow is it for her. Tomorrow is her chance to prove that she belongs on stage as one of the four principles in this campaign. ... Tomorrow is about saving her natural persona for good. She is on the verge of becoming Dan Quaylized or Spiro Agnewed. Tomorrow night is about stopping that. It is not about surpassing artificially low expectations. It is about looking like a plausible national political figure again. And it is a big challenge that she has ahead of her. We've seen her debate. I think we know she can be a good debater" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/1).

Time's Klein: "If I'm Joe Biden's debate doctor, I'm prescribing boring pills, you know. Just be as boring as you can. Joe, put a little sign in front of your lectern saying 'boring.' I want to be boring. I'm not going to be clever" ("Election Center," CNN, 10/1).

McCain, on Ifill: "Does this help that if she has written a book that's favorable to Senator Obama? Probably not. But I have confidence that Gwen Ifill will do a professional job" ("Special Report," FNC, 10/1).

More McCain, to FNC: "I think Gwen Ifill is a professional and I think she will do a completely objective job because she is a highly respected professional" (release, 10/1).

Syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer, on Ifill: "I think she is a first class journalist, but there is a problem here. ... If Obama is inaugurated she has hit the lottery. If McCain is inaugurated she is just published, 'Dewey beats Truman' at book length. Now, she has a stake in this, unconscious or conscious or not, it's a financial stake, it's a professional stake in the success of the book, and it's going to hinge on who wins. Now, I'm not arguing that it will bias her in her questioning, but I would think that if you have someone who has that kind of obvious issue and conflict, you might want to have a moderator like Jim Lehrer, who did well in the last debate and who could do all of these debates. I don't see why we have to have a variety in moderators every time" ("Special Report," FNC, 10/2).

Dem strategist Paul Begala, on Ifill: "She covered the Clinton campaign for the New York Times and I worked for Bill Clinton. She's tough as nails right down the middle. I have probably called and screamed at her a hundred times. But she is a very fair, tough-minded journalist. The book, by the way, is not about Barack Obama, so far as I know, and it's no secret. She's been working on this book for years. It's about the new generation of African-American and civil rights leaders. Obviously, one of them is Barack Obama. He's now the most famous. ... I really think it's ... loathsome for the right wing to try to be bullying Gwen Ifill on the day before the debate" ("AC 360," CNN, 10/1).

Politico's Mark: "If Palin does pretty well on Thursday night, she can say it was even despite a moderator that was not necessarily in my favorite. So it might actually work out well for Palin" ("On the Record," FNC, 10/1).