House Race Hotline Extra: Slip Slidin' Away?
We didn't want to hit the weekend without passing along a few polls that just missed our HRH deadline. Both surveys show vulnerable incumbents losing ground just 11 days before the general.
In MN-06, a week's worth of negative headlines surrounding Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R) controversial comments on MSNBC's "Hardball" has damaged her once-comfortable position. In a new MN Public Radio/Univ. of MN poll, Bachmann trails ex-MN Trans. Sec. Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) 45-43%. The survey of 430 LVs was taken 10/21-23 and had a 4.7% margin of error.
This represents a significant closing of the race, considering a Bachmann poll, conduced the week before the MN Public Radio survey, showed a 44-33% lead for the GOPer. This suggests that Bachmann's support has held steady, while the unknown Tinklenberg surged ahead among soft Dems, GOPers and indies.
Bachmann knows she's in trouble, and has reportedly taped (for air this afternoon) a TV ad apologizing for her comments.
And in the Baton Rouge-centered LA-06, newly-minted Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) has enjoyed some surprising leads in recent Dem polling. But with the presence of a third-party Dem, and a strong GOPer, this GOP-tilting CD was bound to feature a close race on 11/4. But polling for state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) suggests we may already have a nail-biter.
(TIM SAHD)
The Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates' survey shows that Cazayoux leads 38-36%, with Dem state Rep. Michael Jackson (I) taking a very large 14%. The poll was conducted 10/22-23, and included 300 LVs. The margin of error was 5.7%.
Jackson, an African-American, is a huge problem for Cazayoux. If he takes anywhere near the 14% on 11/4, Cazayoux may have no path to victory. Dems outnumber GOPers by a 50-28% margin, but in the 5/08 special election, a weak and tainted GOP nominee -- Woody Jenkins (R) -- pulled 46%. GOPers start with a strong base here, and Cazayoux needs to be able to count on every Dem vote for victory. Jackson robs him of that.
Cazayoux has a perfect profile -- he's socially conservative -- for a Dem in this CD. We'll see if that's enough to carry him over the finish line in Nov.
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