October Unsurprised

HARRISONBURG, VA – Barack Obama made a reference to the much-talked about idea of an “October Surprise’ -- a late-breaking story that can shake up the presidential race in the final days. He attached the term to comments a John McCain advisor made about the Republican’s health care plan.

McCain would offer families a $5,000 tax credit to buy health care coverage and would tax health care benefits provided by employers. Obama said the average family plan costs $12,000 and that independent studies have shown at least 20 million Americans would lose their employer-based insurance under McCain's plan.

"Sen. McCain doesn’t like to talk about this plan all that much, but this morning, we were offered a stunning bit of straight talk – an October surprise – from his top economic advisor, who actually said that the health insurance people currently get from their employer is – and I quote – 'way better' than the health care they'd be getting get if John McCain were President," he said during a speech at James Madison University. "Now, this is the point I’ve been making since Sen. McCain unveiled his plan. It took until the last seven days of this election for his campaign to finally admit the truth. But better late than never."

The Democratic nominee was referring to comments McCain Senior Economic Policy Adviser advisor Doug Holtz Eakin made to CNNMoney in response to criticism – from Obama and others – that the Arizona senator’s plan to provide families with tax credits to buy coverage would result in young, healthy workers leaving their company-sponsored plans, saddling employers with less healthy workers and eventually leading them to to stop offering coverage. Holtz Eakin said younger, healthier workers would not choose the tax credit over their company plans.

"Why would they leave?" asked Holtz-Eakin said. "What they are getting from their employer is way better than what they could get with the credit."

The McCain campaign said Obama was misrepresenting Holtz Eakin's remarks

“Just yesterday, Barack Obama said: ‘if you don’t have a record to run on, you make a big election about small things.’ Truer words were never spoken: today Obama ripped a McCain staffer’s comment completely out of context to make a false political attack," wrote Spokesman Tucker Bounds. "If voters were spared Barack Obama’s small-ball distortions, they’d know that John McCain’s health care plan provides health insurance to 22 million more Americans, and that independent groups have said it would make middle-class families better off."

Obama spoke at James Madison University in the Shenandoah Valley. The campaign, citing university police, estimated some 8,000 people packed the gymnasium of this university in teh Shenandoah Valley, with another 12,000 reportedly outside the venue. Before arriving at the gym, the senator spoke to an overflow crowd gathered at a nearby soccer field, telling them Virginia would be key in this election.

"The fact of the matter is that this election more than any other in my lifetime represents a clear choice between the past and the future, between hope and between fear, between us saying that we're all each of us on our own and those of us who say, 'You know what?' we're all in this together, and we've gotta look out not just for ourselves but also for each other,” he said. “So there are a lot of important decisions to be made and no state is gonna be more important in this election than this state right here. The great state of Virginia."

He told first-time voters this election was the time to for them to make their mark and encouraged them to get out and vote because the race could be “really close here in Virginia.”

In the gym, Obama, who was introduced by Gov. Tim Kaine and former governor and Senate candidate Mark Warner, opened his remarks by telling the audience the last presidential candidate to visit Harrisonburg was Stephen Douglas. Douglas ran against Abraham Lincoln for an Illinois Senate seat in 1858 and was, of course, the Democratic nominee for president in 1860.

"I just discovered that the last presidential candidate to be here was Stephen Douglas that’s who ran against Abraham Lincoln, in case you haven’t been following your history," he said. "It’s a testimony to the path our country has traveled that the last time a Democrat was here was Stephen Douglas and the next presidential candidate is Barack Obama. That’s a testimony to Virginia and a testimony to this country."

President Bush won about 74 percent of the vote here in Rockingham County in 2004. Obama was expected to cap the last Tuesday before Election Day with a late-night rally in Norfolk, VA.

(NBC/NJ's ATHENA JONES)