The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 40%
Undec 7%
- Burgeoning Record. In the first Diageo/Hotline poll taken fully after the 2nd WH debate, Obama leads McCain by 10%, his largest margin thus far. Previously, Obama's record advantage had been 7%.
- Prepare & Contrast. McCain now has his smallest lead ever on who LVs feel is more prepared to lead the nation. 46% say McCain is more prepared, while 43% say Obama. A week ago, in the survey completed 10/3, McCain led 49-41%.
- Hail To The Victor. LVs overwhelmingly feel Obama won the 2nd debate. Among the 71% who watched, 53% say the Dem nominee prevailed, while just 14% say McCain. In a similarly timed sample of RVs after the 1st debate, 42% said Obama won and 25% said McCain.
- Made The Grades. Obama scored considerably higher among debate watchers than McCain. 71% say Obama did an "excellent" or "good" job in the debate, while only 38% say the same of McCain. 27% say Obama did an "only fair" or "poor" job, while 59% say the same of McCain.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/8-10 by FD, surveyed 808 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.
For subscribers, look to Monday's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)








The growing consensus among voters is that Barack Obama and the democrats are best suited to address the economic disaster. McCain and scandal infested running mate has spent the entire week trying to tear down their opponent instead of focusing on the economy and the polls are showing a backlash.
The real problem is that the press has failed to investigate the Ayers-obama Rezko-obama wright-obama Pfleger-obama connections. The lamestream media tries to push the idea that the democrats are best suited to fix the current financial debacle.. Lets see, Bush and McCain warned about this.
Obama(D) took 150k from them, 150k from Rezko, Barney frank(D) wanted no prosecutions of Fannie mae (his ex lover was a manager there). Chris Dodd(D) got a sweetheart loan deal and 100k+ in donations. Jamie Gorlick(D) made quite a few bucks in Fannie Mae, Jim Johnson(D) Made tens of millions while Fannie Mae crumbled and helped pick Obama's(D) running mate. Franklin Raines(D) made almost 100 million by cooking the books at Fannie Mae. We Won't even mention William Ayers(C) and Bernadine Dohrn(C) being friends of Obama's(D)
By the way, any Republican who took over 50K from Fannie and didn't do their job regarding oversite should also be put on the stand and removed from congress.
By the way, there is credible evidence that (1) Dreams of my Father may have been partially ghostwritten (there is absolutely nothing inherently wrong with that). however (2) there is a lot of evidence that the Ghostwriter may have been Ayers... Oh wait, the media is too busy with a non story about the attempted firing of a drunken trooper who tasered his 10 yo stepson and made death threats... my bad..
The real problem is that the press has failed to investigate the Ayers-obama Rezko-obama wright-obama Pfleger-obama connections. The lamestream media tries to push the idea that the democrats are best suited to fix the current financial debacle.. Lets see, Bush and McCain warned about this.
Obama(D) took 150k from them, 150k from Rezko, Barney frank(D) wanted no prosecutions of Fannie mae (his ex lover was a manager there). Chris Dodd(D) got a sweetheart loan deal and 100k+ in donations. Jamie Gorlick(D) made quite a few bucks in Fannie Mae, Jim Johnson(D) Made tens of millions while Fannie Mae crumbled and helped pick Obama's(D) running mate. Franklin Raines(D) made almost 100 million by cooking the books at Fannie Mae. We Won't even mention William Ayers(C) and Bernadine Dohrn(C) being friends of Obama's(D)
By the way, any Republican who took over 50K from Fannie and didn't do their job regarding oversite should also be put on the stand and removed from congress.
By the way, there is credible evidence that (1) Dreams of my Father may have been partially ghostwritten (there is absolutely nothing inherently wrong with that). however (2) there is a lot of evidence that the Ghostwriter may have been Ayers... Oh wait, the media is too busy with a non story about the attempted firing of a drunken trooper who tasered his 10 yo stepson and made death threats... my bad..
Palin is scandal infested??? Sure, let's compare Troopergate (a volcano spewed out a marble!) with Rezko, Ayers, Wright, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc. There is no doubt that the economic problems (caused by Democrats) are helping Obama but maybe people will stop and think do we want someone with no record, no accomplishments and no experience running the country. We need more than feel good "hope and change" and superficial generalities that are the core of Obama's campaign.
The problem with too many conservatives is they operate in a black and white world (no pun intended). They crave purity and were laid helpless before the glowing vision of St. Sarah.
Now that she's been exposed as a merely human pol, they're left with nothing but to point fingers wailing "But your guy is so much worse, can't you see!". Realistic people understand no one gets to national office without encountering shady characters of varying degrees and influence. That's not cynicism, it's pragmatism.
The whole Obama as Saviour schtick was invented in the Limbaugh fever swamp; most Dems I know aren't foolish enough to expect perfection in a politician, just reasonable intelligence, the ability to communicate and persuade people through argument. We're not electing a Pope, we're electing a President and those are the job specs.
cg.."The real problem is that the press has failed to investigate the Ayers-obama". Maybe the voters have decided to do their own homework and found Obama is of superior intelligence, with the right policies and political and social instincts for a leader. If Ayers is as important as you want to make him, why haven't we seen riots in the streets from parents whose 18yr olds are being mentored and taught by this guy TODAY? All the associations you mention only confirm Obama maintains his core integrity no matter who he interacts with. Its interesting we have never gone after Bush Pastor to understand why a president can take a nation to war on a LIE where over 4,000 Americans have lost their lives. Core integrity does not mean you live in a bubble so you never interact with evil. In addition, Obama is a constitutional law professor and understands no matter what anyone else opinion is, he must treat all Americans equal under the law, he will be a president for ALL Americans who include bigots, neocons, racists, as well fundamentalists, liberals and conservatives. They are free to have whatever opinion they may want, they are free to support or oppose Obama but Obama like all the leaders worthy of integrity must be judged based on their character, policies and analytical thinking. To suggest dreams from my father was written by ghost writer does show the stretch of your imaginations. There are tonnes of papers and speeches written by Obama in the last 15 yrs that bear him out. On the contrary McCain co-authored his biographies and we are yet to see a scrap paper on anything written by Palin.
I can counter and say since a SAVING AND LOAN mess was a big part of the reason as to what happened, then the MEDIA has not taken a Bigger role at bringing up the BAD JUDGEMENT MCCAIN USED IN KEATING 5 another Savings and Loan scandal that cost the tax payers millions.
If McCain can't use good judgement in one Savings and Loan Mess how can he use good judement with this one?
"The real problem is that the press has failed to investigate the Ayers-obama Rezko-obama wright-obama Pfleger-obama connections."
Oh, please.... 4,500 news reports this year on Obama and Ayers alone, more than 1,800 this week, including a front-page investigation by the New York Times. How much more "investigation" do you want???
"Lets see, Bush and McCain warned about this."
Not really, particularly with respect to Bush. Moreover, Bush, in particular, was in a far better position to do more than just "warn," had he chosen to do so. As for McCain, the bill he was supporting in 2005 not only would not have prevented this catastrophe, it was blocked from coming to a full vote in the Senate at the behest of the Bush administration and Alan Greenspan. Senate Democrats could not have blocked this even had they wanted to, since they were in the minority. McCain has issued no "warning" since, despite the clear evidence that this was coming.
In any case, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are just a small portion of the overall crisis. The real issue is not those mortgates, it was the financial instruments that were built on top of them. The house of cards with, in some cases as much as $30-40 of credit swaps, insurance, bundles, and the like, for every $1 of actual mortgage debt is the real problem, not the mortgages. The defaulting mortgages simply exposed that house of cards.
And that house of cards was pushed for by Republicans, most notably one of McCain's chief financial advisors, Phil Gramm.
As for your laundry list of connections to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, why did you fail to list McCain's many connections to those companies?
"By the way, there is credible evidence that (1) Dreams of my Father may have been partially ghostwritten"
No. There is no credible evidence that it was ghostwritten, much less that it was ghostwritten by any particular individual. That's just a fantasy cooked up by people desperate to find connections where none exist.
"Oh wait, the media is too busy with a non story about the attempted firing of a drunken trooper who tasered his 10 yo stepson and made death threats... my bad.."
Actually, they're busy with a story about a governor who abused her power in a repeated and lengthy attempt to get that trooper fired, despite the lack of credible evidence of most of the allegations against him, including the lack of evidence about the drunkenness and the death threats.
As for the tasering, it was done at the request of the stepson, who wanted to know what it felt like. Poor judgment, certainly. A firing offense? No. Reason for a multi-year vendetta? No. Reason for an abuse of power and breaking the law in the process? No.
"Palin is scandal infested???"
Actually, I'd just call her a garden-variety liar, since most of her claims about herself are demonstrably false, and an abuser of power, going back to her days as mayor. In that respect, she's pretty much a typical politician.
"Sure, let's compare Troopergate (a volcano spewed out a marble!) with Rezko"
The last time I checked, Obama had not been accused of any wrongdoing, neither legal nor ethical, with respect to any of his interactions with Rezko.
"Ayers"
And even less here, since anything that Ayers did or did not do happened when Obama was eight years old.
"Wright"
And even less here, since Wright hasn't done anything wrong.
"Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac"
Both of which are more tightly tied to the McCain campaign than they are to Obama.
"There is no doubt that the economic problems (caused by Democrats)"
Um, no. The CRA, that favorite bugaboo of the rightwing crowd, had zip to do with the current crisis and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac played only a small role. The deregulation pushed by, among others, Phil Gramm, is largely responsible.
"are helping Obama but maybe people will stop and think do we want someone with no record, no accomplishments and no experience running the country."
Good thing that Obama has a record, accomplishments, and experience, then, isn't it? Now Palin, on the other hand....
"We need more than feel good "hope and change" and superficial generalities that are the core of Obama's campaign."
Considering that Obama has been far more specific and detailed than has McCain, as a quick perusal of their websites and speeches would show, I'm not sure what point you think you're making here, particularly since the McCain campaign is running on ... wait for it ... "change."
Quite frankly my friends I could care less about any of these associations. Why is the mccain camp only talking about obama???? Every day on the stump, everyday on the news, on blogs, what happened to country first?
Stop talking about Obama so much and let me see specifics on how you will fix the economy? I've been recently evicted? I don't care about associations I care about how my bills will get paid and which of these 2 candidates have a better plan for me to get out of debt.
Grow up!
The only thing left for Republicans to start yelling is he's black? ooohh.. wow....
Too little to late.. stick to the issues...
Why would anyone think that Sarah Palin didn't have her ex-brother in-law fired. She is the nastiest thing to come along in a long time. I guess she thinks it's flattering to her to make jokes about something that is the most important decision we will make in a long time. She can only repeat the same things over and over, they can't allow her to answer any unrehearsed questions because they have no idea what she might say as we have seen. McCain is running the most offensive campaign I have seen or ever want to see, he is not capable of leading this country, he cannot lead his own campaign down the right path. He just wings it and most of the time ends up putting his foot in his mouth, he's erradict and hot tempered. I do not want this man making decisions for me. Wake up people, this man is a disgrace, don't vote for him because he was a prisoner of war, that was a long time ago. Have you ever heard how many times he crashed planes, seven is what they say, he's damn lucky I would say. Why did he get so many planes anyway, did it have anything to do with Daddy? Why did he chose to stay there instead of eary release, because he was afraid his Daddy would think he was a coward? This man is obsessed with that experience and will be for the rest of his life. He would get us into another war at the drop of a hat!
Sarah Palin has been stirring up the republican base by being judgemental and prideful and not by being respectful and knowledgeable. How dare she claim to bring God into the white house when lately she has been ushering in division, evil tactics, untruthful character attacks and unethical acts in the governors office. "Judge not, that ye be not judged" and why beholdest thou the mote that in is thy brothers eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye? Those are not my words but the words of the God that she says she serves. (Matthew 7:2-3 KJV)
Regarding the absurdities about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, McClatchy has the straight dope on that.
Federal Reserve Board data show that:
_ More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions.
...
_ Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that's being lambasted by conservative critics. [Emphasis added.]
...
Between 2004 and 2006, when subprime lending was exploding, Fannie and Freddie went from holding a high of 48 percent of the subprime loans that were sold into the secondary market to holding about 24 percent, according to data from Inside Mortgage Finance, a specialty publication. One reason is that Fannie and Freddie were subject to tougher standards than many of the unregulated players in the private sector who weakened lending standards, most of whom have gone bankrupt or are now in deep trouble.
Fannie and Freddie, however, didn't pressure lenders to sell them more loans; they struggled to keep pace with their private sector competitors. In fact, their regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, imposed new restrictions in 2006 that led to Fannie and Freddie losing even more market share in the booming subprime market.
What's more, only commercial banks and thrifts must follow CRA rules. The investment banks don't, nor did the now-bankrupt non-bank lenders such as New Century Financial Corp. and Ameriquest that underwrote most of the subprime loans.
These private non-bank lenders enjoyed a regulatory gap, allowing them to be regulated by 50 different state banking supervisors instead of the federal government. And mortgage brokers, who also weren't subject to federal regulation or the CRA, originated most of the subprime loans.
In a speech last March, Janet Yellen, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, debunked the notion that the push for affordable housing created today's problems.
"Most of the loans made by depository institutions examined under the CRA have not been higher-priced loans," she said. "The CRA has increased the volume of responsible lending to low- and moderate-income households."
In a book on the sub-prime lending collapse published in June 2007, the late Federal Reserve Governor Ed Gramlich wrote that only one-third of all CRA loans had interest rates high enough to be considered sub-prime and that to the pleasant surprise of commercial banks there were low default rates. Banks that participated in CRA lending had found, he wrote, "that this new lending is good business."
the poll 41% dems 37% gop, then 18%independents, which really are majority democrats, dems always say independents,some do, I do sometimes, and this is credible??? tell me why is it that dems are always the majority asked, of course it would pick obama over mccain. if you asked the opposite 37 dems, 41 gop, and a few of the independents, guarantee it would have been mccain winning, did you see drudge, mccain won overwhelmingly, and a mixture of people go to drudge, just dont beleive these polls right now, they want us to beleive them so we will not go out and vote because we think its lost, NOT HARDLY, this time in '04 it was president kerry beating bush by 11 points, I sure remember that, up until election day bush was losing, and we all know who won. every poll that has obama winning I look at the internal numbers and its always the same, way more democrats are polled, they are doing all they can to suppress the gop vote, ain't going to work!!!! and judging by all these comments, its all liberals who are reading here. obama is goint to lose!!! dont get your hopes up. people just wont be able to pull that lever when they get in that booth, obama scares the hell out of alot of people, he is an empty suit, like president clinton said, he is a fairytale!!!!!
Barack is continuing to Prove that "love, (not attacking your opponent) can Conquer hate after all."! Here is one story....
"Today it is conservatives, not liberals, who talk with alarming bellicosity about making the world “safe for democracy.” It is John McCain who says America’s job is to “defeat evil,” a theological expansion of the nation’s mission that would make George Washington cough out his wooden teeth. This kind of conservatism, which is not conservative at all, has produced financial mismanagement, the waste of human lives, the loss of moral authority, and the wreckage of our economy that McCain now threatens to make worse.
Barack Obama is not my ideal candidate for president. (In fact, I made the maximum donation to John McCain during the primaries, when there was still hope he might come to his senses.) But I now see that Obama is almost the ideal candidate for this moment in American history. I disagree with him on many issues. But those don’t matter as much as what Obama offers, which is a deeply conservative view of the world. Nobody can read Obama’s books (which, it is worth noting, he wrote himself) or listen to him speak without realizing that this is a thoughtful, pragmatic, and prudent man. It gives me comfort just to think that after eight years of George W. Bush we will have a president who has actually read the Federalist Papers. Most important, Obama will be a realist. I doubt he will taunt Russia, as McCain has, at the very moment when our national interest requires it as an ally. The crucial distinction in my mind is that, unlike John McCain, I am convinced he will not impulsively take us into another war unless American national interests are directly threatened.
A Conservative for Obama, Wick Allison, Editor In Chief, D Magazine