Are You Feeling AK?
The latest vote tallies for the AK House and Senate races are in, and they're likely leaving pollsters feeling a bit blue.
Embattled Rep. Don Young (R) will be returning to DC after his 50-45% defeat of '06 LG nominee/ex-state House Min. Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D). Young's victory surprised many -- including, perhaps, the three outlets that had Berkowitz ahead by between 6% and 9% in the final weeks of the campaign.
The last poll taken in the race, by Hays Research Group (D) on 11/2, showed the Dem ahead 49-43% with a +/- 4.9% margin of error. Another Dem pollster, Ivan Moore Research (D), queried AK LVs four times since the convos -- and his results failed each time to show Young with an edge. These surveys had Berkowitz ahead by between 5% and 17%, and Moore's final poll, conducted 10/17-19 with margin of error of +/- 4.4%, showed the Dem with a 51-43% advantage.
The only non-partisan pollster to survey AK LVs in the final month of the campaign, Research 2000, also showed Berkowitz ahead 53-44%. This final survey -- conducted 10/28-30 on behalf of liberal mecca Daily Kos -- followed two other Research 2000 post-convo surveys which also showed Berkowitz with an edge.
Meanwhile in the Senate race, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) now leads convicted Sen. Ted Stevens (R) by 814 votes, or 0.3% -- a result that only Moore predicted. (Note that 40K ballots must still be counted.) In Moore's final survey, completed 10/19, Begich led by only 1%. The other pollsters, Hays and Research 2000, did not fare quite as well. In the last polls taken, Hays had Begich ahead by 7%, and Research 2000 showed the Dem with a startling 22% lead.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)