Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: The Final Early Line
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 45%
Undec 5%
-- Our final tracking poll finds a whopping 27% of LV's reporting that they've already voted. Among this group, Obama leads McCain 51%-46%.
-- In what could be a small bright spot for congressional GOPers, the Dem lead on the generic congressional ballot question is down to 5 pts. A week ago (10/27) Dems held an 8-pt lead.
-- McCain has also opened up a lead over Obama on the question of which candidate is more prepared to lead the country. A week ago (10/27), the candidates were tied at 45%. Today, McCain leads by 6 pts. (49-43%). Among indies, he is ahead 50-37%.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/31-11/2 by FD, surveyed 887 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I. Look for full results in Monday's Latest Edition.
Based on an analysis of responses to questions on candidates' images, party ID and demographics, "Refused" responses in the head-to-head question were assigned to Obama, McCain or undec.
(AMY WALTER)
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