Electoral College Scorecard: Rank & Smile
After a primary season that saw pollsters face serious questions of accuracy, the general election appears to have been far more manageable. In addition to two pollsters -- Ipsos/McClatchy and CNN/Opinion Research Corp. -- exactly predicting Barack Obama's 53-46% popular-vote victory, outlets generally fared well in the 19 Hotline battleground states.
A full chart outlining state-by-state data follows after the jump, but the table below offers a cumulative assessment of all pollsters who surveyed more than two battleground states since 10/12. This scorecard ranks pollsters by the average differential between their final survey and the 11/4 results among the states each surveyed.
We've taken the absolute difference between a pollster's predicted margin of victory and actual margin of victory in a given state, added them up and divided by the number of states an outlet surveyed. Quinnipiac Univ. tops the list, followed by Reuters/Zogby and FD/National Journal.
Pollster AvgMargin StatesSurveyed Quinnipiac Univ. 1.14 7 Reuters/Zogby 2.00 9 FD/National Journal 2.13 8 Marist College 2.17 6 Associated Press/GfK 2.25 8 American Research Group (R) 2.27 11 Strategic Vision (R) 2.29 7 CNN/Time/ORC 2.40 10 Selzer & Co. 2.67 3 Suffolk Univ. 3.17 6 Mason-Dixon 3.27 15 Research 2000 3.38 13 Big 10/Univ. of WI 5.43 7
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
The chart below matches 11/4 results for the 19 Hotline battleground states with the polls completed in each state since 10/12. Only the final poll taken by each pollster is included.
The line with the state symbol reflects actual results and the closest pollster(s) to those results; all surveys are included below. For each poll, the "lead" column is the leader in the survey and his numerical advantage; the "diff" column represents the difference between that lead and the actual margin of victory (the "--" symbol is a delta of zero).
St McC OBA POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE +/- LEAD DIFF CO 45 54 Closest: AP/GfK and Quinnipiac got it O+9 - 45 52 ARG (R) 10/28-30 600 LVs 4.0 O+7 -2 - 44 49 Mason-Dixon 10/28-29 625 LVs 3.9 O+5 -4 - 45 51 Marist College 10/27-28 682 LVs 3.8 O+6 -3 - 45 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 774 LVs 3.5 O+8 -1 - 44 48 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 409 RVs 4.8 O+4 -5 - 41 50 AP/GfK 10/22-26 626 LVs 3.9 O+9 -- - 40 52 POS(R)/RBI(D) 10/21-23 500 LVs 4.4 O+12 +3 - 43 47 Suffolk Univ. 10/10-13 600 LVs 4.0 O+4 -5 - 43 52 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1088 LVs 3.0 O+9 -- FL 48 51 Closest: 9 pollsters within 1% O+3 - 48 49 Reuters/Zogby 10/31-11/3 678 LVs 3.8 O+1 -2 - 47 49 StrtegicVis(R) 10/31-11/2 1200 LVs 2.8 O+2 -1 - 45 47 Quinnipiac Unv 10/27-11/2 1773 LVs 2.3 O+2 -1 - 46 50 ARG (R) 10/29-31 600 LVs 4.0 O+4 +1 - 47 49 Mason-Dixon 10/29-30 625 LVs 3.9 O+2 -1 - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 747 LVs 3.6 O+4 +1 - 41 45 FL Chamb/Comrc 10/26-27 601 LVs 4.0 O+4 +1 - 43 50 LAT/Bloomberg 10/25-27 639 LVs 3.9 O+7 +4 - 44 45 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 408 RVs 4.9 O+1 -2 - 44 49 Suffolk Univ. 10/23-26 600 LVs 4.0 O+5 +2 - 43 45 AP/GfK 10/22-26 600 LVs 4.0 O+2 -1 - 42 49 St.Pete/BayNws 10/20-22 800 RVs 3.5 O+7 +4 - 45 49 Research 2000 10/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O+4 +1 - 43 47 Hamilton (D) 10/10-15 700 LVs 3.7 O+4 +1 GA 52 47 Closest: CNN/Time/ORC was perfect M+5 - 50 46 StrtegicVis(R) 10/31-11/2 800 LVs 3.5 M+4 -1 - 47 44 Research 2000 10/28-30 600 LVs 4.0 M+3 -2 - 52 47 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 690 LVs 3.7 M+5 -- - 49 43 Mason-Dixon 10/22-23 625 LVs 3.9 M+6 +1 - 48 45 GQR (D) 10/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 M+3 -2 IN 49 50 Closest: Selzer got it right O+1 - 50 45 Reuters/Zogby 10/31-11/3 585 LVs 4.1 M+5 -6 - 48 48 ARG (R) 10/28-31 600 LVs 4.0 -- -1 - 45 46 Selzer & Co. 10/26-28 606 LVs 4.0 O+1 -- - 47 47 Research 2000 10/24-28 800 LVs 3.5 -- -1 - 47 45 Howey/Gauge 10/23-24 600 LVs 4.0 M+2 -3 - 42 51 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 586 RVs 4.0 O+9 +8 IA 45 54 Closest: Marist off by 1% O+9 - 37 54 Selzer & Co. 10/28-31 814 LVs 3.4 O+17 +8 - 39 53 Research 2000 10/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 O+14 +5 - 42 52 Marist College 10/23-24 645 LVs 3.8 O+10 +1 - 40 51 Mason-Dixon 10/22-23 625 LVs 3.9 O+11 +2 - 39 52 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 586 RVs 4.0 O+13 +4 MI 41 57 Closest: three got it exactly right O+16 - 38 54 Mitchell R&C 11/3 400 LVs 4.9 O+16 -- - 37 53 Selzer & Co. 10/28-31 616 LVs 3.9 O+16 -- - 41 54 StrtegicVis(R) 10/27-29 1200 LVs 2.8 O+13 -3 - 38 50 EPIC-MRA 10/26-28 600 LVs 4.0 O+12 -4 - 36 58 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 562 RVs 4.1 O+22 +6 - 38 54 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1043 LVs 3.0 O+16 -- MN 44 54 Closest: FD/Natl Journal got it right O+10 - 42 53 PRSAI/StarTrib 10/29-31 933 LVs 3.2 O+11 +1 - 38 53 Research 2000 10/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 O+15 +5 - 40 48 Mason-Dixon 10/27-28 625 LVs 3.9 O+8 -2 - 37 56 PRN/Univ of MN 10/24-28 451 LVs 4.6 O+19 +9 - 38 57 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 583 RVs 4.1 O+19 +9 - 38 43 St. Cloud St. 10/14-22 466 RVs 4.5 O+5 -5 - 40 50 FD/NatlJournal 10/16-20 402 RVs 4.9 O+10 -- - 40 51 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1019 LVs 3.1 O+11 +1 MO 49 49 Closet: 2 had McCain up 1%; 2 had tie M+0 - 49 49 Reuters/Zogby 10/31-11/3 585 LVs 4.1 -- -- - 48 48 ARG (R) 10/28-30 600 LVs 4.0 -- -- - 47 46 Mason-Dixon 10/28-29 625 LVs 3.9 M+1 +1 - 50 48 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 825 LVs 3.4 M+2 +2 - 47 48 Research 2000 10/20-23 800 LVs 3.5 O+1 -1 - 45 44 Suffolk Univ. 10/17-19 600 LVs 4.0 M+1 +1 MT 50 47 Closest: ARG got it right M+3 - 49 46 ARG (R) 10/28-30 600 LVs 4.0 M+3 -- - 48 44 Research 2000 10/28-30 500 LVs 4.4 M+4 +1 - 48 44 Mason-Dixon 10/23-25 625 LVs 3.9 M+4 +1 - 40 44 MTSU-Billings 10/16-20 403 LVs 4.9 O+4 -7 NV 43 55 Closest: AP/GfK got it right O+12 - 47 52 ARG (R) 10/31-11/3 600 LVs 4.0 O+5 -7 - 42 53 Reuters/Zogby 10/31-11/3 586 LVs 4.0 O+11 -1 - 43 47 Mason-Dixon 10/28-29 625 LVs 3.9 O+4 -8 - 45 50 Research 2000 10/25-28 600 LVs 4.0 O+5 -7 - 45 52 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 684 LVs 3.7 O+7 -5 - 40 50 Suffolk Univ. 10/23-27 450 LVs 4.6 O+10 -2 - 40 52 AP/GfK 10/22-26 628 LVs 3.9 O+12 -- NH 45 54 Closest: Strategic Vision (R) was on O+9 - 42 53 Univ. of NH 10/30-11/2 831 LVs 3.4 O+11 +2 - 44 51 Research 2000 10/28-30 600 LVs 4.0 O+7 -2 - 41 56 ARG (R) 10/28-30 600 LVs 4.0 O+15 +5 - 41 50 StrtegicVis(R) 10/27-29 800 LVs 3.5 O+9 -- - 40 53 Suffolk Univ. 10/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 O+13 +4 - 37 55 AP/GfK 10/22-26 600 LVs 4.0 O+18 +9 - 39 50 Mason-Dixon 10/23-25 625 LVs 3.9 O+11 +2 - 45 50 Marist College 10/22-23 655 LVs 3.8 O+5 -4 - 44 48 POS (R) 10/20-22 525 LVs 4.3 O+4 -5 NM 42 57 Closest: no real choice in the matter O+15 - 43 51 ABQ Journal 10/28-30 1002 LVs 3.1 O+8 -7 NC 50 50 Closest: 3 had Obama up 1% O+0 - 48 49 ARG (R) 10/31-11/3 600 LVs 4.0 O+1 +1 - 50 49 Reuters/Zogby 10/31-11/3 585 LVs 4.1 M+1 -1 - 45 47 Research 2000 10/28-30 600 LVs 4.0 O+2 +2 - 49 46 Mason-Dixon 10/28-29 625 LVs 3.9 M+3 -3 - 46 47 Tel Opinion(R) 10/27-29 600 LVs 4.0 O+1 +1 - 46 52 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 667 LVs 3.8 O+6 +6 - 43 47 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 402 RVs 4.9 O+4 +4 - 46 48 AP/GfK 10/22-26 601 LVs 4.0 O+2 +2 - 44 45 Winthrop/ETV 9/28-10/19 744 LVs 3.6 O+1 +1 ND 53 45 Closest: Research 2000 was closest M+8 - 47 46 Research 2000 10/28-29 500 LVs 4.4 M+1 -7 - 41 44 DFM Research 10/13-14 500 Adl 4.4 O+3 -11 OH 47 51 Closest: CNN/Time/ORC got it right O+4 - 47 49 Reuters/Zogby 10/31-11/3 687 LVs 3.7 O+2 -2 - 48 46 StrtegicVis(R) 10/31-11/2 1200 LVs 2.8 M+2 -6 - 46 52 Univ. of Cinc. 10/29-11/2 1308 LVs 2.7 O+6 +2 - 43 50 Quinnipiac Unv 10/27-11/2 1574 LVs 2.5 O+7 +3 - 46 52 Columbus Disp. 10/22-31 2164 RVs 2.1 O+6 +2 - 47 45 Mason-Dixon 10/28-29 625 LVs 3.9 M+2 -6 - 47 51 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 779 LVs 3.5 O+4 -- - 40 49 LAT/Bloomberg 10/25-27 644 LVs 3.9 O+9 +5 - 41 48 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 404 RVs 4.9 O+7 +3 - 45 48 Marist College 10/24-26 661 LVs 3.8 O+3 -1 - 41 48 AP/GfK 10/22-26 607 LVs 4.0 O+7 +3 - 41 57 Ohio Univ. 10/12-23 611 RVs 4.0 O+16 +12 - 41 53 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 564 RVs 4.1 O+12 +8 - 42 51 Suffolk Univ. 10/16-19 600 LVs 4.0 O+9 +5 PA 44 55 Closest: 6 pollsters were 1% off O+11 - 41 51 Reuters/Zogby 10/31-11/3 682 LVs 3.8 O+10 -1 - 44 51 StrtegicVis(R) 10/31-11/2 1200 LVs 2.8 O+7 -4 - 46 52 Muhlenberg Clg 10/29-11/2 617 LVs 3.9 O+6 -5 - 42 52 Quinnipiac Unv 10/27-11/2 1493 LVs 2.5 O+10 -1 - 45 51 ARG (R) 10/29-31 600 LVs 4.0 O+6 -5 - 43 47 Mason-Dixon 10/27-28 625 LVs 3.9 O+4 -7 - 43 55 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 768 LVs 3.5 O+12 +1 - 41 55 Marist College 10/26-27 713 LVs 3.7 O+14 +3 - 40 52 AP/GfK 10/22-26 607 LVs 4.0 O+12 +1 - 40 53 F&M College 10/21-26 555 LVs 4.2 O+13 +2 - 43 52 Temple Univ. 10/20-26 761 LVs 3.6 O+9 -2 - 42 52 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 566 RVs 4.1 O+10 -1 - 41 51 FD/NatlJournal 10/16-20 412 RVs 4.8 O+10 -1 - 40 48 Susquehanna(R) 10/16-18 700 LVs 3.7 O+8 -3 VA 47 52 Closest: 4 pollsters were 1% off O+5 - 45 52 Reuters/Zogby 10/31-11/3 690 LVs 3.7 O+7 +2 - 47 51 ARG (R) 10/31-11/3 600 LVs 4.0 O+4 -1 - 44 47 Mason-Dixon 10/29-30 625 LVs 3.9 O+3 -2 - 44 53 CNN/Time/ORC 10/23-28 721 LVs 3.6 O+9 +4 - 47 51 Marist College 10/26-27 671 LVs 3.8 O+4 -1 - 44 48 FD/NatlJournal 10/23-27 404 RVs 4.9 O+4 -1 - 42 49 AP/GfK 10/22-26 601 LVs 4.0 O+7 +2 - 39 48 RoanokeCollege 10/19-26 614 LVs 4.0 O+9 +4 - 44 52 ABC/WaPo/TNS 10/22-25 784 LVs 3.5 O+8 +3 - 40 51 VCU 10/20-22 817 LVs 3.4 O+11 +6 - 44 45 Winthrop/ETV 9/28-10/19 665 LVs 3.8 O+1 -4 - 43 49 CNU 10/11-14 500 LVs 4.4 O+6 +1 WV 56 43 Closest: ARG was closest, just 2% off M+13 - 53 42 ARG (R) 10/31-11/3 600 LVs 4.0 M+11 -2 - 50 40 Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26 600 LVs 4.0 M+10 -3 - 49 43 Research 2000 10/22-24 600 LVs 4.0 M+6 -7 - 49 44 Orion Strg (D) 10/20-21 600 RVs 4.0 M+5 -8 - 53 44 CNN/Time/ORC 10/19-21 674 LVs 3.8 M+9 -4 - 47 41 Mason-Dixon 10/16-17 625 LVs 3.9 M+6 -7 - 42 41 Rainmaker (D) 10/14-15 600 LVs 4.0 M+1 -12 WI 42 56 Closest: three got it exactly right O+14 - 40 53 StrtegicVis(R) 10/31-11/2 800 LVs 3.5 O+13 -1 - 42 53 Research 2000 10/27-28 600 LVs 4.0 O+11 -3 - 40 52 UW Badger Poll 10/21-28 483 RVs 4.5 O+12 -2 - 41 53 Big 10/U of WI 10/19-22 584 RVs 4.1 O+12 -2 - 40 53 FD/NatlJournal 10/16-20 405 RVs 4.9 O+13 -1 - 39 51 Mason-Dixon 10/16-17 625 LVs 3.9 O+12 -2 - 38 51 WPR/St.Norbert 10/9-17 400 LVs 4.9 O+13 -1 - 36 51 U of WI-Milwau 10/8-15 434 Adl 4.7 O+15 +1 - 37 54 Quinnipiac Unv 10/8-12 1201 LVs 2.8 O+17 +2
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
BAM! This high caliber of statistical analysis is to an election what fiber is to a healthy diet. Way to be Gottlieb.