Missouri On My Mind
In Missouri today local jurisdictions are set to certify the results of the 2008 election, giving a narrow win to John McCain -- and marking the first time in 50 years the bellwether Show Me State failed to pick the White House winner. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is expected to validate the final results 12/2.
McCain leads 49.4% to Barack Obama's 49.3%. Just 4,788 votes separate them.
So what happened? Missouri has not only had the historical sense of the nation in elections past, but this year, the state overwhelmingly elected a Democrat -- Attorney Gen. Jay Nixon -- as governor. Nixon trounced his Republican opponent, Rep. Kenny Hulshof, by 19 points.
It turns out there were a lot of split ticket voters in Missouri this year; local reporters have taken to calling them "McNixons." Nixon won 58 counties that also went for McCain. Nixon performed particularly well in St. Charles and Greene counties. Both are GOP strongholds, the former is in the St. Louis suburbs, the latter includes Springfield, Roy Blunt’s home. Both also backed McCain.
Obama, on the other hand, won nine counties statewide.
"Every Democrat on the ballot lagged behind Jay Nixon’s performance," said Jack Cardetti, a spokesman for the Missouri Democratic Party.
Nixon is a pro gun, pro death penalty Democrat. He campaigned for 24 months, selling his ties to rural southern Jefferson County and his hometown of De Soto. He managed to appeal to white rural voters and some evangelicals in securing his win. Obama, on the other hand, performed well in traditionally Democratic pockets of the state, St. Louis and Kansas City.
Terry Jones, professor of political science at the University of Missouri, St. Louis, said the state is now solidly Republican and that an Obama win was a longshot. Missouri is socially conservative and still boasts an evangelical population (35%) that exceeds national numbers (26%). The magnitude of the Nixon win, not the narrowness of Obama 'sloss, is the notable exception.
"If you take a careful look at the numbers," he said of Missouri's bellwether status, "it was slip sliding away and has been for the past eight years."
Missouri backed George W. Bush in 2000, Jones noted, despite Al Gore's popular vote win.
As for 2008, it's also worth noting that In the last two weeks of the race, the McCain camp dispatched Sarah Palin for three visits to GOP corners of Missouri. And this cycle marked the first presidential contest since Missouri ditched its straight ticket ballot; if Nixon were to have had reverse coattails, the straight ticket ballot might have helped Obama's cause.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
I wouldn't call a three point margin in 2000, and a six point margin 2004 solidly Republican, nor would I say that after a .1 percent divide this time. Narrowly divided would work better. There is a solid Republican base and a solid Democratic base, the trick is to do well among rural votes. Claire McCaskill did that to beat Jim Talent, a highly talented, well known politician by any measure. I thought he would run for Governor this year.
Nevada and New Mexico are the new bellwethers. Since 1912, both states have accurately picked the presidential winner with the except of 1976.
Although in 2000, they split the difference- New Mexico picking the popular vote winner and Nevada picking the electoral voter winner.
Nevada and New Mexico are the new bellwethers. Since 1912, both states have accurately picked the presidential winner with the except of 1976.
Although in 2000, they split the difference- New Mexico picking the popular vote winner and Nevada picking the electoral voter winner.