Obama's Win, An Analysis
How did it happen?
How did Barack Obama defy the odds and do what few imagined possible a year ago, turn back Hillary Clinton's well-funded frontrunner campaign and trounce a Republican nominee, a war hero no less, who had the potential to draw support from across the political spectrum?
With determination and discipline, Obama crafted a message that only he, a son of Kansas and Kenya, could sincerely deliver. Change. Hope. Post partisanship. An end to the negative politics of the past. All valiant, if also vague, selling points. Given the scope of his win, however, it is clear he struck more specific notes, too, that rang true -- health care for all, an equitable tax policy, access to health care, an end to corporate welfare -- for voters in blue and red state America.
But Obama, no matter how gifted, unflappable, charmed, should also thank two men for assisting in clearing his path to victory: Howard Dean and George W. Bush.
Piggybacking on a 50-state strategy first peddled by Democratic National Committee chairman Dean -- to much quiet snickering from many in the Democratic establishment that it was expensive and untenable -- Obama launched meticulous efforts to win over voters in traditionally Republican states in all four corners of the nation, from Colorado to Indiana to North Carolina. He opened offices in Montana of all places. He sought to turn reliably Republican Virginia. And he made plays for Ohio and Florida.
No longer should Dean, the crusty former VT governor whose 2004 presidential bid flamed out after one ill-timed Iowa yelp, be discounted by the Washington Democratic establishment. Dean's vision, the state-by-state networks established by the party under his leadership and his even management of a prickly primary contest between Obama and Clinton, makes him the other clear winner of the 2008 contest.
Meanwhile, with approval ratings hovering in the 20s and 30s, President Bush, too, established the climate for Obama to triumph. Much as President Clinton's indiscretions hurt Al Gore's 2000 bid, Bush's unpopularity, his betrayal of his party's core beliefs in smaller government, fiscal prudence and a non interventionist foreign policy, made it harder to rally conservatives this cycle. His legacy hurt the GOP's centrist candidate, John McCain, who might have, under other circumstances, differentiated himself from the unpopular president.
The scope and shape of Obama's win -- aided by the Rust Belt appeal of his running mate, Scranton's own Joe Biden -- is easy to qualify. The Democrat cleaned house. It's that simple.
He won men and women. He won every age group except seniors. Blacks, Hispanics, white voters ages 18-29 all backed the Illinois senator. He won among voters making more than $200K and voters making less than $50K. He won support from those in every education bracket, from voters without a high school degree to voters with post graduate schooling. He won Independents. He won moderates.
With Bush destined for history's rendering and the Democratic Party now also dominating the House and Senate, for Obama, the hard work of governing begins. Words must be translated into action. Does a next-generation president, an African American who pledges to represent all the people, follow another Illinoisan's lead and bring able Republicans into his circle? How will he shape the highest court in the land? Will he save a sinking economy -- voters believed in great numbers that he, not his Republican rival, would better manage the crisis -- or get saddled with it?
Last night, Obama touched briefly on the historic significance of his win. The somber president-elect promised progress but cautioned that even with the best of intentions, with a mandate in his suit pocket, change will take time.
"The road ahead will be long," he said, addressing tens of thousands of flag waving supporters in Grant Park. "Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term. But America, I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you -- we as a people will get there."
(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Join the Discussion
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus