Putting the Car-Mouche In Gear
Dems are currently sitting on a 20-seat gain in the House, and they could pick up two or three more seats from races currently in recounts. But a new poll suggests Dems also have a great shot in retiring Rep. Jim McCrery's (R-LA 04) open seat, which will hold its general election on 12/6.
Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche (D), a highly-touted "Blue Dog," released a poll today showing him leading physician John Fleming (R) 45-35%. The poll was conducted 11/6-7 by the Kitchens Group among 600 LVs. The margin of error is +/- 4%.
(TIM SAHD)
The DCCC sees a great pickup opportunity here as well, and began airing a TV ad against Fleming 11/7, accusing him of supporting the "Fair Tax" and putting Social Security funds into the stock market. The NRCC also plans to go up on the air in the CD.
Carmouche, though, has struggled a bit to live up to his advanced billing in his previous races against inferior opposition. In the primary, he garnered just less than 50%, and was forced into a runoff against African-American ret. Army Col./atty Willie Banks (D). Carmouche took 62% in the runoff, but he'll need to put to bed any resentment that may linger in this CD in African-American corners. African-American state Sen. Lydia Jackson (D) endorsed Banks in the runoff, and said after the primary that she didn't think Carmouche was a "good candidate, period. I think the party decided on a conservative white male, they thought that's our best candidate." Jackson considered an indie bid herself earlier this year, but eventually decided against it.
Dems had similar problems in LA-06 on 11/4, where freshman Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) lost to state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), 48-40%. A third party candidate -- Dem state Rep. Michael Jackson (I) -- took 12%. Jackson was miffed that nat'l Dems showed a quiet preference for Cazayoux in the special election earlier in the year, and decided to run an underfunded indie bid. It cost Cazayoux dearly.
Today's poll shows that Dems may be coalescing around Carmouche, and he's the early favorite. But this is a GOP CD, and if any of these problems do surface, Fleming may have a shot. Carmouche, though, looks like he may be the final cherry on the top of this election for Dems.