Senate Update: The Waiting Game
There are three Senate races still in flux 48 hours after voters went to the polls.
ALASKA
Current vote totals from the AK Bd. of Elections website show Sen. Ted Stevens (R) leading Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) by 3,257 votes. This is with 100% of precincts reporting, however thousands of ballots remain to be counted , including 46K absentee, 9.5K early votes, and 5.7K questionable ballots.
The Stevens camp put out a release late 11/5, stating: "It is almost mathematically impossible for Mark Begich to pull ahead if the trends from last night continue. We are confident that we will gain votes given that there is a decidedly Republican advantage to the absentee ballots not yet counted." Begich responded that "this race is far from over. ... We ran an aggressive campaign, especially when it came to early voting and absentees. ... Those votes have not been counted. Lines have been long for weeks at City Hall and other early voting locations. We strongly encouraged our supporters to turn out. Those votes have not been counted. My vote has not been counted."
GEORGIA
There are also thousands of uncounted ballots in GA, where Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) leads Jim Martin (D) 49.9%-46.7%. Virtually all the remaining absentee votes left to be counted, perhaps 30K, are in heavily Dem Fulton Co. (Atlanta), not enough to give Martin the lead, and yet sufficient to keep Chambliss under 50%. A 12/2 runoff appears to be a near-certainty at this point.
MINNESOTA
The closest 2008 Senate race, however, continues to be MN, where Sen. Norm Coleman (R) now leads Al Franken (D) by only 342 votes, or 0.1%. This is well below the 0.5% needed to automatically trigger a recount, however Coleman has already declared his re-election, and many of his Senate GOP colleagues have put out releases congratulating him on his win. Coleman has also called on Franken to concede the race, so as to spare taxpayers the cost of a recount, although the ed boards of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minneapolis Star-Tribune weighed in on behalf of a recount this a.m.
Meanwhile, many news outlets have already declared Jeff Merley (D) the victor over Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR). Ballots are still being counted, however Merkley has pulled to a 43K vote lead over Smith, a margin that is more likely to increase than decrease as the remaining votes are tabulated, many of which are in Multnomah Co. (Portland).
Assuming Franken and Smith both lose, they could arguably blame the presence of third-party candidates on their ballots, specifically ex-MN Sen. Dean Barkley (I) and OR's Dave Brownlow (Const.). If Smith loses, and the other incumbents end up winning, the Senate would stand at 57 Dems (counting Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman) to 43 GOPers. Dems would have to sweep the three outstanding races to nab a filibuster-proof 60 seats.
(QUINN MCCORD)
