Weekend House Call
Some updates on the House front on this final weekend...
Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL 10) is not only fighting a toxic environment for GOPers, but also Barack Obama-enhanced turnout in his suburban Chicago CD. Now his opponent, '06 nominee Dan Seals (D), can say he's officially Obama approved, as the WH Dem recorded a radio ad for Seals 10/31. Obama, in the ad: "In my 20 months of campaigning, I've met few candidates who embody change as much as Dan Seals. To Dan, change isn't just a word, it's a way of life."
There are few House races where Obama has chosen to get involved, but in the past few days he's recorded a radio ad for Rep. Chris Shays' (D-CT 04) opponent, and has publicly endorsed Rep. David Scott (D-GA 13) in Atlanta. His radio ads in IL-10 and CT-04 are meant to transfer his immense popularity in those CDs to the Dem challengers. And in GA-13, the suddenly vulnerable Scott can use Obama's endorsement as a tool to remind voters that he's the Dem in the race. Scott accuses his African-American GOP opponent of hiding her true party affiliation.
-- A few new polls in the West are showing pretty comfortable leads for GOPers in some solidly GOP CDs. In WY, ex-Treas. Cynthia Lummis (R) leads '06 nominee Gary Trauner (D) 49-45% in a Research 2000 poll, conducted 10/14-16. In a previous poll, she trailed 44-43%. Also, in the Reno-based NV-03, Rep. Dean Heller (R) maintains a 13% lead over '06 nominee Jill Derby (D). That poll was taken 10/28-29 by Mason-Dixon. Earlier in Oct., he led 51-38%.
(TIM SAHD)
These are the types of CDs the GOP needs to hold if it is to keep 11/4 from being a disastrous evening. The DCCC has invested over $800K into taking WY-AL, and is rumored to have made ad buys in NV-02, although they have yet to be reported to the FEC. If Dems win these types of GOP-heavy seats on election night, it will mean that the GOP has suffered historic losses on Election Night.
-- But in a belleweather race, a 10/28-29 Mason-Dixon poll shows that Rep. Jon Porter (R) and '06 GOV nominee Dina Titus (D) are tied at 44%. Normally, that would be awful news for Porter, as it shows him well below a safe 50% threshold. But there are a few nuggets of news that may hold hope for Porter: The poll shows Titus with a high unfavorable rating (42%), and indies are breaking his way by a 45-38% margin. If those numbers hold true, they will help him overcome the huge turnout advantage Dems had in early voting in the CD.
Porter faces tough odds in holding this seat in such a dangerous environment for GOPers, but this poll shows that he has hope heading into 11/4.
-- Overall, though, the situation for House GOPers is bleak, and we're predicting a 24-34 seat gain for Dems. Some analysts and partisans are predicting even higher numbers, although Dem officials scoff at the predictions of a 40+ gain for Dems. Regardless of the size, though, a second wave appears to be about to forming for Dems.