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Did The Bailout Get Bailed Out?

Like AAA to a car stalled on the side of a darkened highway, the U.S. Senate is now looking like it could come to the rescue of the Big Three automakers. But it's a longshot.

Let's review some of the drama that's gotten us to this point:

Bailout stories filed last night and published in this morning's papers told the tale of a bill in crisis. A number of Senate Republicans were preparing to block the proposal, claiming its provisions didn't do enough to force the flailing US automakers to reform. But there were hints in the coverage of a potential for compromise that would keep the deal alive; GOP supporters of the bailout, including OH Sen. George Voinovich, hinted that it might be possible to win the votes of some of the bailout's critics if the Senate were allowed to alter the bill through amendments on the floor.

But then, mid-morning, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid offered an ultimatum to the bill's opponents. He said he'd give critics one chance to put their own version of a bailout up for a vote before pushing through the House-passed bill as is, with no amendments. Reid said the Senate would adjourn without a bailout if members couldn't pass a plan by Friday morning.

Reid, in Roll Call: "If there’s no agreement reached on [what to vote on], then we have danced this tune long enough ... If we’re not allowed to proceed on that, then we’ll be through with this."

So, it was not looking good for Detroit, and then things got worse. Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell -- who, though disparaging of the House bill, had not officially taken a position on it -- was reported in The Hill as having joined the side of the bill's opponents. As The Hill put it, the announcement "dealt [the bailout] a substantial blow."

But now it seems that compromise has broken out at the last minute. Shortly after noon, Roll Call published a piece suggesting that Reid and McConnell are negotiating an agreement that could win the Senate's approval. Details of the negotiations are sketchy. According to the article, the goal is still to hold the vote tomorrow, which doesn't give lawmakers anxious to go home for the holidays a lot of time for more extended negotiations.

Supposing a Senate bill is crafted and then passed, Detroit's journey to fiscal stability would still be far from over. Speaker Nancy Pelosi would likely have to call the House back for one last session to vote on the Senate bill before new members take their oath early January, something "senior" Dem aides told the Washington Post the House had "no intention of doing." It might then be a while before the House reconvenes, and then, of course, the negotiations could start again. And for GM and Chrysler officials who have said they'll run out of money at the end of December, an extra day or two or more could have serious consequences.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)