Oh Boyd!
Rep. Allen Boyd (D), the latest FL pol to release a statement responding to Sen. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) decision to retire in '10, devoted exactly one sentence to Martinez before highlighting his qualifications for the job and mentioning that he could jump into the race.
"I want to join my fellow Floridians in thanking Senator Martinez for his service," the Blue Dog Democrat said. "I am a fifth generation Floridian with deep roots in the state, and I want to see the state I love and my fellow Floridians thrive. Right now, our state and our nation are experiencing challenging times. President-elect Obama and Senator Bill Nelson will need a strong, steady partner in the U.S. Senate. We need aggressive, bipartisan solutions to the economic, domestic, and foreign policy challenges that face the country."
"I have been considering a run for the U.S. Senate in 2010, prior to Sen. Martinez's announcement today. I will continue to discuss the race with state and national party leaders and with my supporters in North Florida and throughout the state. Most importantly, I'll talk about this with my family, and I expect we'll make a final decision very early next year."
With over $1.3M CoH, Boyd has the third-largest war chest of any FL House member, trailing only Reps. Cliff Stearns (R) with $2.4M and Ron Klein (D) with $1.8M. Boyd has maintained a solidly moderate voting record in the House, and in 2006 he actually received a higher rating from the ACU (63) than he did from the ADA (50). Over the past few years, National Journal rates him as voting the liberal line roughly 55% of time, fairly low for a House Dem.
Much of the cash Boyd maintains was actually raised in 2003 for a possible 2004 Senate bid, although he ultimately didn't run, deferring to a former statewide office holder (Betty Castor) and his more senior House colleague (Peter Deutsch). But his interest in a Senate seat is clear, and with a good starter war chest and a moderate voting record, he could well be a strong nominee (though certainly vulnerable to a primary challenge from the left). Moreover, Boyd's House seat could be a GOP pick-up opportunity, as it was twice won by Pres. Bush with 53% and 54% and has a Cook PVI of R+2.
Allen Boyd is a strong Senate contender for Florida Democrats. He has the Washington experience to be effective immediately and is popular in the most heavily Republican part of the state. A Democrat like Boyd who can be competitive in North Florida should have no problem in winning statewide.
North Florida boys are not very competitive in Democrat primaries. The population base is in South Florida. Boyd would be a good general election candidate but couldn't beat more left-leaning primary challengers.
The two biggest possible candidates have yet to be heard from: Charlie Crist and Jeb Bush.
Crist has created a gigantic mess, and may want to escape before the problems get even worse. Besides, his fiance will never be happy in Tallahassee.
Jeb Bush, on the other hand, still has sky-high support, and has a unique opportunity to break out from his brother's long and dark shadow. He may feel this is his opportunity to rejuvenate his public service career; after all, there's nothing going on in real estate development, and you can only live for so long on the rubber chicken circuit. So, does he want to go to D.C., or would he go back to Tallahassee if Crist somehow figures out how to appoint himself to the seat?
The bigger question is whether Martinez will leave early to allow an appointment. He was very clear that he did not have Potomac fever, and his best friends in the Senate are now gone. He can't even go home on weekends without Harry Reid's ok. If he is truly as burned-out as insiders suggest, there's no real reason for him to stay in D.C. He may want to enjoy that beautiful new house he's building earlier than 2011.