Au ReVoinovich?
Several media sources are reporting this evening that 2-term Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH), up for re-election in 2010, will announce his retirement tomorrow. Voinovich would be the 4th Republican senator (out of 19 GOP seats up next year) who will not be running for re-election this cycle, along with Sens. Sam Brownback (R-KS), Mel Martinez (R-FL), and Kit Bond (R-MO).
With the New Year less than two weeks old, the GOP will now have to defend at least 3 open Senate seats in states won by Barack Obama in '08, a significant headache for new NRSC chair John Cornyn (R-TX) as he attempts to prevent Dems from obtaining a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate this cycle. Dems will be defending 17 seats next year, only one of which will definitely be open (DE), one with an unelected incumbent running for re-election (CO), and two which may or may not have unelected incumbents running for re-election (NY and IL). Still, it's clear that the GOP is going into this Senate cycle much more exposed than their Democratic counterparts, just as they have the previous two cycles in which Republicans lost at least 13 Senate seats.
As with any open Senate seat, early speculation is focusing on statewide office holders and past and present House members. LG Lee Fisher (D), AG Richard Cordray (D), and ex-Rep./ex-OMB dir. Rob Portman (R) are the names most often mentioned in recent days, with occasional chatter about Rep. Tim Ryan (D-17)... but presumably most of OH's House delegation will at least take a glance at the race. Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) or Aud. Mary Taylor (R) are other statewide office-holders who could be tempted by a SEN bid.
One assumes that '06 GOV nominee/ex-Sec/State Ken Blackwell (R) will disavow, or at least, defer, any indication of interest until the vote on RNC chair is taken. Certainly the 37% of the vote that he won in 2006 is hardly a strong basis on which to mount another statewide bid... although that doesn't seem to have prevented him from winning significant backing in his race for RNC chair.
Incidentally, Portman still has $1.5M CoH left over from his days in the House, a number which far exceeds that of any member of OH's current House delegation. There is also some talk about ex-Rep. John Kasich (R) running for GOV, and undoubtedly the NRCC and DCCC would prefer that both the SEN and GOV races end up a battle between FORMER House members and other statewide office holders, leaving no open House seats to defend.
Portman brings tremendous assets to Washington for the people of Ohio. He left Congress and USTR on a high note with a strong reputation for sound representation, thoughtful analysis and a deep understanding of economics, particularly international trade and its impact on jobs, business development and competitiveness. He'll be an excellent heir to Voinoviches fiscal conservatism. It will be up to Voinvich (and of course Portman) to see how strong he runs up north in the Cleveland/Youngstown area which will be critical. Voinovich can call Portman his choice early, help him fundraise and make the right moves. Portman has never run statewide and so it will take dollars and a lot of help to make this happen... Go Rob, Go!
Portman brings tremendous assets to Washington for the people of Ohio. He left Congress and USTR on a high note with a strong reputation for sound representation, thoughtful analysis and a deep understanding of economics, particularly international trade and its impact on jobs, business development and competitiveness. He'll be an excellent heir to Voinoviches fiscal conservatism. It will be up to Voinvich (and of course Portman) to see how strong he runs up north in the Cleveland/Youngstown area which will be critical. Voinovich can call Portman his choice early, help him fundraise and make the right moves. Portman has never run statewide and so it will take dollars and a lot of help to make this happen... Go Rob, Go!
"undoubtedly the NRCC and DCCC would prefer that both the SEN and GOV races end up a battle between FORMER House members and other statewide office holders, leaving no open House seats to defend."
That's only true for swing House seats. For example, Tim Ryan's Youngstown district is overwhelmingly Democratic.
Agree with David that Portman is a formidable candidate. He will be tarred with the fact that he served in the Bush administration. Also how will he play in Columbus and Toledo? He's probably the best candidate the GOP has. But he's set his sites for Governor though. This will be an interesting race in a battleground state that slightly now leans blue.
Agree with David that Portman is a formidable candidate. He will be tarred with the fact that he served in the Bush administration. Also how will he play in Columbus and Toledo? He's probably the best candidate the GOP has. But he's set his sites for Governor though. This will be an interesting race in a battleground state that slightly now leans blue.