Diageo/Hotline: Grins & Needles
The first Diageo/Hotline poll of the year, conducted immediately after Pres. Obama's inauguration, reveals Americans are enthusiastic about their new leader and his agenda but also cognizant of the difficult road ahead. The survey, conducted 1/21-24 by FD, shows record concern about the U.S. economy as well.
The poll, released this a.m., gives the new POTUS a favorable rating of 76%, up from 65% just after the general election. More than half of U.S. RVs (55%) have a "strongly favorable" impression of Obama, and he gets an almost unanimous 95% total fav figure among Dems. GOPers, meanwhile, have a net-positive feeling towards him (fav/unfav of 44%/40%).
Although Obama has been in office just a few days, 63% of RVs approve of Obama's handling of the job, and 9% disapprove. Obama's "strong approval" of 42% is higher than George W. Bush's total job approval of 29% in the previous Diageo/Hotline poll, conducted 11/6-9. Among Dems, 76% approve of Obama's job performance, and 60% "strongly approve".
More than two-thirds of RVs (68%) watched the inauguration, including a majority of GOPers (53%); 78% of Dems and 66% of Indies watched. Nearly four in five RVs (78%) who watched Obama's speech said it was better than average for an inaugural address. An even greater proportion of those who saw it (83%) say the speech made them more optimistic about the U.S. meeting its challenges. Two-thirds of RVs (67%) have been so inspired by Obama's election and inauguration they intend to become more involved in helping the U.S. meet those challenges. This group includes 86% of Dems, 62% of Indies and 77% of those who saw Obama's speech.
Looking beyond 1/20, RVs across all spectrums agree the most important issue facing the nation and the new POTUS is the economy. More than three-quarters of RVs (76%) say the economy is the top issue, vastly outpacing second-place foreign policy at 7%. Just after 11/4, 47% said the economy was the most important issue to their WH '08 choice, with moral/social issues next at 21%. Concern about the economy spans gender, age, ethnicity, geography, education, income and party affiliation.
A majority of RVs also support Obama's proposed $825B economic stimulus package. Using split samples, Diageo/Hotline tested the recovery plan with and without details of how the money will be spent.
In one sample, 54% of RVs support passing a $825B plan to jumpstart the economy even if it means increasing the federal deficit. In the other sample, 66% support the same plan also knowing it includes $550B for alternative energy technology, roads/bridges, state gov'ts/local school districts and increasing benefits for the unemployed, as well as $275B in tax cuts/credits for individuals and businesses to generate jobs. And when subsequently asked which single part of the proposed package is most important, RVs most frequently name tax cuts for businesses to create jobs (27% among six individual policies tested).
The strong support for Obama's planned investment in infrastructure and tax breaks is in sharp juxtaposition to RV feelings about TARP. About one-third (32%) think the Senate's approval of the second $350B in TARP funds was a good idea. This position is shared across party lines; only 36% of Dems, 26% of GOPers and 31% of Indies think it was a good idea.
And looking ahead to economic recovery, 65% of RVs are confident the proposed stimulus package will be effective in turning around the U.S. economy, including 84% of Dems. RVs generally seem patient; barely anyone (3%) believes the U.S. will emerge from recession in less than 1 year, and 26% say it will be in 1 to 2 years. A plurality (43%) say it will be between 2 and 4 years, and a quarter of RVs believe it will be more than 4 years before the U.S. comes out of recession.
The latest Diageo/Hotline poll surveyed 800 RVs and has margin of error +/- 3.5%. Party ID breakdown for the survey is 40% Dem, 23% GOP and 30% Indie.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)