FL SEN: Mel's Kitchen
A Quinnipiac University poll of FL RVs shows wide-open Dem and GOP primary contests for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R). The survey shows three GOPers drawing double digits in a five-way primary fight, as well as a five-way Dem matchup in which more than half of Dem RVs are undec.
On the GOP side, '00 nominee/'04 candidate/AG Bill McCollum (R) leads Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-14) 22-21% with Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-13) at 10%, ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) at 6% and ex-state House Speaker Allan Bense (R) at 2%. Just 4% of GOPers are undec.
Among GOPers, McCollum has a fav/unfav of 51%/10% and a job approval rating of 63%, with just 9% disapproving; Mack, meanwhile, posts a GOP fav/unfav of 41%/8%. Indeed, at 61% McCollum is the only GOPer tested with more than 50% name ID. His recognition bests Mack's mark by 12% and is more than double the 26% and 22% of FL GOPers who recognize Buchanan and Rubio, respectively.
Meanwhile among Dems, CFO Alex Sink (D) leads with 15% of the vote, despite her 1/16 announcement not to seek the seat. Reps. Kendrick Meek (D-17), Ron Klein (D-22) and Allen Boyd (D-02) draw 13%, 9% and 8%. State Sen. Dan Gelber (D) is at just 1%, while 54% are undec.
Sink, whose announcement occurred while the poll was in the field, is most recognized among Dem RVs at 30% (with a 28% fav), while Meek is close behind at 24% ID, including 22% fav. Klein and Boyd trail with ID ratings in the teens and fav/unfavs of 15%/3% and 13%/4%, respectively. Just less than half of Dems (49%) approve of Sink as CFO, while 14% disapprove.
Despite their narrow primary leads, Quinnipiac tested a general-election matchup between McCollum and Sink; the GOPer led by 1% with 29% undec. Signaling a more diverse base of support, McCollum leads Indies by 11% and draws twice as many crossover votes from Dems as Sink gets from GOPers.
The Quinnipiac Univ. survey, conducted 1/14-19, surveyed 1,370 RVs and has margin of error +/- 2.6%. The poll includes subsamples of 522 GOPers (with margin of error +/- 4.3%) and 442 Dems (with margin of error +/- 4.7%).
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
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