Sen. Bob Menendez, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said today that the outlook for 2010 is already strong for Democratic Senate candidates but that Republican opposition to Pres. Obama's economic stimulus package will help them make their case by amplifying voter dissatisfaction with the GOP.
"They are, in essence, betting against the nation doing better," he added, calling the party's 'no' votes a "signature" George W. Bush move. "I think that's an incredibly wrong and dangerous proposition for Republicans."
During a noon briefing with reporters at the Democratic National Committee, Menendez added: "The early evidence seems to show that Republicans haven't changed their brand."
And because of that, Menendez said, solid Republican candidates aren't opting to run for Senate next cycle. Menendez mentioned former Gov. Jeb Bush, who decided not to run for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Mel Martinez.
"It's difficult to energize voters when your candidates are reluctant to run," Menendez said.
Meanwhile, he noted that Democrats have already jumped into 2010 contests in key swing states: Robin Carnahan in MO and Rep. Paul Hodes in NH.
With four new Democratic senators appointed by their governors (IL, NY, DE and CO), Menendez was asked if the DSCC will back the incumbent in each state over a viable primary challenger.
"Any of the appointed candidates who decide to run will have the support of the committee," he said.
He hedged slightly, however, when asked about IL Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, a young, affluent Democrat toying with a bid against Pres. Obama's replacement, Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL). Menendez said he knows Giannoulias, 32, from his work with the Greek community.
"We'll see where it goes," Menendez said.
All told, how many seats will the Democrats win next cycle? "As many as we can," Menendez said.
An overview of the landscape, as provided by the DSCC chairman:
Illinois
Menendez said that Burris -- chosen by embattled and now impeached former Gov. Rod Blagojevich to fill the seat vacated by Obama -- has not decided yet if he will run in 2010. The committee, he said, has not imposed a deadline on Burris to make that determination.
(On Call Aside: Not publicly, at least.)
New York
The newest addition to the United States Senate is, of course, former Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, whom Gov. David Paterson appointed to replace Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Gillibrand has met much resistance from downstate Democrats, who reject her pro gun stance, in particular, and there are some members -- Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Carolyn McCarthy -- who have said they are weighing a primary challenge.
Menendez was enthusiastic about Gillibrand, calling her "a hard charger."
"She is working extremely hard to both understand and represent the diverse nature of New York state," he said. By the time the primary rolls around, he said, "she will have convinced her fellow Democrats that she deserves their support."
Pennsylvania
Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) broke ranks this week with his party to back the economic stimulus package pushed by Democratic congressional leaders and the White House, but that doesn't buy him any points with the party establishment when it comes to his re-elect. The gloves will be off in 2010.
Menendez noted that PA Democrats have a 1.2M registration advantage. "That's a daunting task to start off with," he said.
He also said that the state -- which already has a strong incumbent Democratic governor, Ed Rendell, and popular junior senator, Bob Casey -- proved that it is trending away from the GOP in giving Obama a big win over Sen. John McCain.
"I think that's a tide that is very difficult for Sen. Specter," he said.
Missouri
MO Secretary of State Carnahan, the daughter of a former MO governor and U.S. senator announced her intention to run for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Christopher Bond, a Republican. She could face a challenge, however, from another state figure with a well-known family name, GOP Rep. Roy Blunt. Menendez said Blunt will have to explain his leadership in the House.
"I'm not dismissing him," Menendez said. "I'm looking at the reality of Robin Carnahan."
Kansas
It's a sign of the nation's political evolution over the last presidential cycle that Democrats see opportunity in the retirement of Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS). One rumored contender is Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, who has also been mentioned as a potential head of Health and Human Services.
Menendez suggested that she is still in the mix for Senate.
"Clearly, if Gov. Sebelius were to run, she wins," he said. "And I don't discard that possibility."
Florida
Gov. Charlie Crist is reported to be seriously considering a bid for the Sunshine State seat vacated by Sen. Mel Martinez. If he runs, he would be the biggest name on either side of the ticket. Democrats already lining up for a primary fight include: State Sen. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek.
But Menendez said that with Florida's economic woes and housing crisis, Crist might not be such an appealing candidate.
"I'm not sure that Floridians will feel that they're well-served by him in leaving them in that lurch," he said.
Connecticut
Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) has seen his popularity wane following news that he took a questionable home mortgage loan. He's in Republican crosshairs. Menendez stood by Dodd, who is serving his fifth term, saying that he has taken on tough issues and succeeded and that he's been in the eye of the storm before. He said he has heard the GOP's rumbling that they'll take on Dodd but that so far it's all talk.
"I see a lot of paper moving around with the Republicans," Menendez said. "I don't see any candidates against him."
North Carolina
Menendez said that Kay Hagan's win over incumbent GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole last year bodes well for the Democrats in the Tar Heel state. He said that he believes Sen. Richard Burr is "vulnerable."
"I believe we will have a great candidate in to challenge him," he said without naming names.
Texas
And finally, a sign of the chairman's confidence, perhaps, is his willingness to pitch Texas as a possible get for Democrats, should Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison run for governor, as is likely. "No place is a bridge to far for Democrats," Menendez said. "If that happens, we will have a great candidate in Texas."
(JENNIFER SKALKA)