NJ GOV: Counting The Votes On The New Jersey Turnpike
A Quinnipiac University survey of NJ RVs released this a.m. shows Gov. Jon Corzine (D) trailing by 6% in his reelection bid to ex-U.S. atty Christopher Christie (R). In the new poll, conducted 1/29-2/2, Christie leads 44-38%, a 12% swing from Corzine's 42-36% advantage in 11/08.
Christie's improvement is driven by increases among Indie, GOP, male and white RVs. In the previous poll, conducted 11/13-17, Christie led Indies by 6%, a margin which today stands at 25%. The ex-U.S. atty also gained 10% among RVs in his own party, while Corzine's GOP total remained static; neither candidate moved significantly among Dems.
In the 11/08 matchup, Corzine and Christie were nearly tied among men, with the Gov. holding a 1% lead; today, men favor Christie 51-32%. Among women, Corzine lost 1% of support, and Christie gained 5%; as a result, Corzine's former 10% lead among women now stands at just 4%. Meanwhile, the GOP challenger has increased his lead among whites from 7% to 20%.
Christie has yet to get the GOP nod, but Quinnipiac's primary ballot shows him with a comfortable 27% advantage over his closest rival. The ex-U.S. atty leads '05 candidate/ex-Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan (R) 44-17%, with two other candidates in single digits. Nearly a third (32%) of GOP RVs are undecided -- a number which will surely diminish as the 6/2 primary approaches.
The new Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted 1/29-2/2, surveyed 1,173 NJ RVs and has margin of error +/- 2.9%; the primary sample surveyed 385 GOPers and has margin of error +/- 5.0%. The earlier poll, conducted 11/13-17, surveyed 2,020 NJ RVs and has margin of error +/- 2.2%.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
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