UNH Survey: Hodes V. Shea-Porter, An Evenish Match
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center released a poll today showing that the state's leading Democratic contenders for Senate in 2010 -- Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter -- each have strongsuits; one has better base appeal, while the other garners more favorable Indie and GOP support.
Hodes gets higher overall reviews from his constituents: 46% of adults in the Second CD view him favorably, 13% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 41% are neutral or don't know enough to say. For Shea-Porter, 38% of adults in the First CD have a favorable opinion of her, 26% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 37% are neutral or don't know enough to form an opinion of her.
Their statewide favorables are similar -- 37% have a favorable opinion of her and
36% feel the same of Hodes. But Shea-Porter is viewed more unfavorably statewide than Hodes, 23% to 13%.
The poll indicates overall, however, that Shea-Porter is well positioned in a primary battle with Hodes, as 61% of Democrats view Shea-Porter favorably compared to 50% for Hodes. Still, Hodes might have more strength in a general election match-up against a GOP nom as he polls better with Indie voters and even Republicans. He has a six-point favorability advantage over Shea-Porter with Indies and a five-point edge with Republicans.
And Shea-Porter is viewed much more unfavorably by Republicans than Hodes, with 50% of Republicans having an unfavorable opinion of Shea-Porter compared to 28% for Hodes.
The poll shows that Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who defeated Sen. John E. Sununu (R) last fall, has seen her favorables rise since her election. The poll shows that 56% of statewide voters view her favorably, compared with 47% in a Sept. 08 poll. Her 32% unfavorable rating in the latest survey marks a drop of eight points since Sept.
The poll was taken after Sen. Judd Gregg was nominated by Pres. Obama to serve as Commerce Sec. but before Gregg withdrew. His Feb. faves are 64%, up 17 percentage points since Sept., a sign that the four-term GOP senator benefited from his association with the Democratic president. Obama bested Sen. John McCain in the Granite State by nine points during the November presidential contest.
UNH polled 619 randomly selected New Hampshire adults by telephone between 2/5 and 2/9. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-3.9 percent. Included was a subsample of 311 adults in the First CD (margin of sampling error +/- 5.6%) and a subsample of 308 adults in the Second CD (margin of sampling error +/- 5.6%).
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
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