CT SEN: Court Simmons
Sen. Chris Dodd (D) looks vulnerable to a challenge from ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R), according to a Quinnipiac Univ. poll released this a.m. In three matchups with SEN '10 opponents, Dodd trails Simmons by just 1%, but leads two other GOP candidates by double digits.
Simmons holds a 43-42% advantage over the sitting Sen., while Dodd leads CNBC Anchor Larry Kudlow (R) 46-34% and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R) 47-34%. Among Indies, Dodd holds advantages of 2% and 5% against Kudlow and Caligiuri, respectively. Simmons, meanwhile, leads Indies by 17% and beats Dodd in his former CD by 20%; Dodd carries CT-02 against the other two GOPers. In '04 and '98, Dodd won reelection with 66% and 65% of the vote, respectively.
Simmons represented CT-02 for three terms before his 83-vote loss to Rep. Joe Courtney (D) in the '06 Dem takeover of the House. After leaving Congress, Simmons was nominated by the widely popular Gov. M. Jodi Rell (R) -- 75% job approval in today's release -- to serve as CT Business Advocate.
The ex-Rep. is the only candidate who competes with Dodd on personal favorability. At 46%/45%, the Sen.'s fav/unfav is barely a net positive and well below his 2/07 rating of 49%/30%. Simmons has a 36% fav with a 10% unfav, although a majority of CT RVs do not know enough about him to form an opinion. The two have similar fav ratings among Indies -- 39% for Dodd and 41% for Simmons -- but Dodd's 50% unfav among the group is 42% higher than Simmons' Indie unfav.
The other two GOPers barely register; approximately one in 10 RVs knows enough about Kudlow or Caligiuri to form an opinion. Kudlow's fav/unfav is just 8%/4%, while Caligiuri stands at 9%/3%.
The one bright spot in the poll for Dodd is the improvement in his approval rating. Nearly half of CT RVs, 49%, approve of his job performance, while 44% disapprove. Although nowhere near his record approval of 71% from 4/01, the rating is up from last month's poll when Dodd's Quinnipiac numbers hit an all-time low; on 2/8, 41% approved of his job performance, while 48% approved.
Today's Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted 3/3-8, surveyed 1,238 CT RVs and has margin of error +/- 2.8%.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)