Diageo/Hotline: Sugar Pie, Honeymoon Bunch

Pres. Obama maintains his post-1/20 bounce with impressive numbers on job performance, personal favorability and economic policy in the latest Diageo/Hotline survey, conducted 2/28-3/2 by FD. Obama's continued highs are mirrored by a more competitive environment for Congressional Dems.

Obama's approval rating is 67%, up from 63% in the previous Diageo/Hotline poll conducted just after inauguration (1/21-24). His disapproval rating, however, jumped from 9% to 27% as a result of previously undecided GOPers and Indies. Among GOPers, Obama's disapproval rating jumped 34% to 57%, and it increased 21% to 25% among Indies.

On a personal level, Obama's fav/unfav is 68%/27% -- slightly off his post-1/20 honeymoon high of 76%/15%, but nearly identical to his 65%/28% rating immediately after the election. Obama's Dem colleagues also saw a drop in favorability since inauguration. VP Biden's unfav is up 13%, Speaker Nancy Pelosi's unfav is up 9% and Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid's is up 7%.

The shift for these Congressional leaders is accompanied by strong GOP gains on the generic House ballot. On 1/24, Dems led by 24%, an advantage that today stands at just 6%. Although Dems remained basically constant among party subgroups, the generic GOP candidate made unilateral gains among undec Indies and GOPers. The GOPer gained 17% among Indie RVs and 21% among GOP RVs, as undecs fell in those groups by 19% and 14%, respectively.

Since the previous poll, the proportion of RVs who approve of Dems in Congress has remained constant at 49%, while the number who disapprove jumped 7% to 45%. GOPers in Congress saw similarly sized gains, with their approval moving from 26% to 34% and disapproval figure dropping 2% to 60%.

Among Dem RVs, Congressional Dem approval is up 14% to 82%. GOPers, meanwhile, jumped 18% in approval among GOP RVs for their first net-positive rating among their own party's RVs. Congressional GOPers, however, still test poorly among Indies, with 30% approval and 64% disapproval. Indies are nearly split regarding Dems in Congress -- 48% approve and 46% disapprove.

Looking to the economy, which 70% say is the most important issue facing the U.S., RVs remain confident in the stimulus package, Obama and his team of economic advisors. A majority, 53%, are confident the economic stimulus will be successful in turning around the economy; less than one in 10 RVs, however, is "very confident." More people (64%) are confident team Obama will be successful in turning around the economy, with 19% "very confident."

And while it is still early to judge the results of the stimulus, the package perhaps sets the backdrop for Nov. '10. Indeed, RVs today prefer a candidate who supported the $787B economic stimulus package by 13%. Nearly half, 48%, say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the bill, while 35% would more likely vote for a candidate who opposed it.

The latest Diageo/Hotline poll, conducted 2/28-3/2 by FD, surveyed 803 RVs and has margin of error +/- 3.5%. For full trendlines and graphs, please visit the new Diageo/Hotline Poll site.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)