Friday House Cleaning: This Time, It's For "Real"

House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd will take a look each Friday at the top five House stories of the week. Here are this week's big newsmakers, brought to you by Friday House Cleaning:

5. CA-10: Ellen No-Show

It's not every day GOPers get a good whack at a Dem open seat in CA -- and Rep. Ellen Tauscher's (D-CA 10) soon-to-be-vacant CD doesn't look too promising. But Tauscher's decision to leave her Bay Area-CD for a position at the State Dept. does give GOPers the smallest of openings, if they're able to recruit the right candidate.

The CD used to be competitive. Before '02 redistricting added solidly Dem towns to her seat, Tauscher never scored better than 53% in her re-election campaigns. But since '02 she hasn't had a competitive race, and the CD gave Pres. Obama 65%. In other words, this is a seat where Dems should have an early edge.

On that side of the ledger, state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier (D) appears to be the early frontrunner; On 3/19, he picked up the endorsement of Assemb. Tom Torlakson (D), who was once interested in the race. But there are reports that John F. Kennedy nephew/Santa Monica Councilor Bobby Shriver (D) is also interested in the race.

But Dems aren't the only ones with celebrities considering the contest. GOPers are attempting to get ex-49ers star Brent Jones (R) into the race. A high-profile GOPer with some money could make this a race, but Dems have the early edge.

4. NH-01 And KY-06: Open And Shut?

When Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH 01) decided against running for SEN this week, it saved NH Dems from defending two open seats in the state. But the party has a deep bench in the CD, and any one of a dozen elected Dems could've held this Dem-leaning seat. They can't be so sure about Rep. Ben Chandler's (D-KY 06) GOP-leaning CD, as KY Gov. Steve Beshear (D) is apparently trying hard to recruit him to run against Sen. Jim Bunning (R).

Chandler doesn't sound enamored with the idea, but if he runs, it'll be a very tough seat for Dems to hold. On the positive side, Dems do have a bevy of state legislators who could run, but the CD leans to the right on the federal level. In '08, John McCain took 55%. An open seat here would leave Dems on the defensive, but certainly not out of the game.

3. Buy Generics?

It's all too confusing. According to the polls, the public gives much higher marks to House Dems than House GOPers (a DailyKos/Research 2000 poll gives Dems a 44% approve, while GOPers earn just 17% job approval ratings). But a new NPR poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) -- two highly respected pollsters -- shows the generic Congressional ballot a 42-42% tie.

How could that be? NJ's Charlie Cook writes that it's indies that are giving the GOP the edge in this poll (by a 38-24% margin). If we see that trend continue in future polls, that could spell huge trouble for Dems in '10, as they've enjoyed a big edge among this group for the last two cycles.

We still don't know how to square these two sets of numbers, but could we be seeing a GOP resurgence on the backs of indie voters?

2. NY-20 Special: Can't We All Just Get Along?

Late last week, Assemb. Min. Leader Jim Tedisco (R) decided to shake up the race by telling the NRCC and other outside groups to stop running negative ads against businessman Scott Murphy (D). He also promised advertising that would give voters an idea of who the "real" Tedisco is.

His camp's first attempt to show their boss in this new light came in a TV ad where Tedisco quotes Pres. Obama by saying, "Like the president said, in these difficult times, we're not Republicans or Democrats, we're Americans."

Of course, while this CD has a 70K+ GOP-voter registration edge, Obama won it in '08, and retains very high favorable ratings there. This ad shows how far the GOP has fallen even in a CD that it nominally still retains an advantage in. It's a smart strategy if Tedisco wants to rework his image if he feels it's taken a hit by all the negative ads.

1. NY-20 Special: AIG Is Only A Number?

But the "real" Tedisco didn't last too long, as the AIG bonus issue dropped into his lap. He began airing a new TV ad linking Murphy to the issue by saying the Dem also gave "huge bonuses to executives in a company losing millions." He's also claiming that by supporting the stimulus (and a provision in it that allows contracts, and bonuses, to be honored before 2/11), Murphy's also supporting the AIG bonuses. These are claims Murphy's camp vehemently denies.

Murphy hits back hard in his own TV ad by saying Tedisco's "No" stance on the stimulus means higher taxes for the middle class and fewer jobs.

But Tedisco's TV ad marks the first time he's been on the offensive in a long time in this race. And polls show outrage against the AIG bonuses is really resonating with voters. Surveys from a few weeks ago show Tedisco with a small lead, and if he can keep Murphy on the defensive on the AIG issue, he'll be able to run the clock out until the 3/31 special election. But if he gets distracted (Murphy's got his own problems, too...and this one may end up in a Tedisco TV ad), this race will become much more volatile in the remaining days.