PA SEN: There's Something About Primary
Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) faces a touch primary challenge from the right according to two polls released this a.m. New surveys from Quinnipiac University and Franklin & Marshall College show conflicting primary results between Specter and '04 candidate/ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R), but both reflect a vulnerable incumbent in PA SEN '10.
Quinnipiac shows Toomey (name ID 20%) leading Specter 41-27% in the primary, with 28% undec. F&M, however, has Specter leading Toomey 33-18% and 42% undec. Despite Specter's lead in the F&M survey, a five-term incumbent garnering only a third of the primary vote is troubling. Both surveys were conducted before Specter's 3/24 announcement he will oppose the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA).
There is more bad news in the general election for the veteran Sen.; Quinnipiac shows Specter trailing a generic Dem nominee 33-31%. Among Indies, the Dem holds a 12% advantage, and among GOPers, Specter does not break 50%. What's more, Quinnipiac reports slightly more RVs say Specter does not deserve reelection (41%) than say he does (38%). And among GOPers, only 30% say he deserves reelection. F&M, reporting on the same topic, shows only 40% of PA adults think Specter has done a good enough job to deserve reelection, while 46% say it is time for a change.
With EFCA behind him for SEN '10, one issue that could haunt Specter in the GOP primary is his support for Pres. Obama's economic stimulus package. According to Quinnipiac, seven in 10 GOPers disapprove of Specter's support for the measure, compared to one-quarter who approve. Overall, 59% approve of Specter's vote, while 36% disapprove. Not surprisingly, 87% of PA Dems approve of Specter's support, which was critical to the bill's passing.
This trend among Dems and GOPers spills over to Specter's job approval rating in Quinnipiac's poll. Specter's rating among Dems (71%) is nearly double his mark among GOPers (36%). Overall, more than half of PA RVs (52%) approve and one-third (33%) disapprove of Specter as Sen. Similarly, 52% of PA adults in the F&M survey think Specter is doing an excellent or good job.
The Quinnipiac poll, conducted 3/19-23, surveyed 1,056 PA RVs and has margin of error +/- 3.0%; the primary subsample surveyed 423 PA GOP RVs and has margin of error +/- 4.8%. The F&M poll, conducted 3/17-22 for Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL-TV/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-TV/WPVI-TV/Times-Shamrock Newspapers, surveyed 662 PA adults and has margin of error +/- 3/8%; the primary subsample surveyed 211 PA GOP RVs and has margin of error +/- 6.7%.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
well, this is one democratic voter who despises snarlin' arlen and his complete lack of spine. he muses about the issues, tries to sound independant and then votes the republican line 95% of the time. ugh..a total hypocrite.