The Real Test
All eyes tomorrow will be on the NY-20 special election between Democrat Scott Murphy and Assemblyman Jim Tedisco. Political observers believe it is an early indicator of public receptivity to Pres. Obama's economic agenda; Obama edged out Sen. John McCain in the CD last November by three percentage points. Others view the contest as a sign of whether the national GOP, which has sunk a half million dollars into the race, is beginning a resurgence.
There's an argument to be made, however, that this special election comes too early in Obama's term for it to be a real test of his political capital or of the Republican Party's ability to regroup after last year's losses. Instead, each might be better judged by keeping watch over how the Virginia governor's race turns out in November.
Virginia, long a Republican stronghold, went for Obama over McCain in the general election, 53% to 47%. Obama beat Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, in the VA Democratic primary by 29 percentage points. It had been four decades since the Commonwealth voted for a Democratic presidential nominee.
That said, the GOP has a strong candidate for governor in former state attorney general Bob McDonnell. And it's McDonnell's effort that has mobilized the full attention -- and fundraising capacity -- of the national GOP. Already, McCain and Sen. Mitch McConnell have headlined events for McDonnell, who is quietly raising money while three Democrats -- Terry McAuliffe, Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran -- compete for their party's nomination. And Ed Gillespie, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, is McDonnell's volunteer chairman.
Both parties are expected to pour ample resources into the state, which Democrats believes has trended solidly in their direction in recent years. But the Democratic candidates are clutching tightly to the legacies of Govs. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, who were both popular figures, and the cachet of Obama, who remains a draw though his policies are now in the crosshairs. It might then set up nicely for McDonnell, who could pitch himself -- get this -- as the candidate of change. As the check and balance on big spending Washington. He'll have the cash to make his case and the party's big guns behind him. And he is the only man of the four running who has won a statewise contest.
"People saw Barack Obama as someone who could fix things, who could solve problems, and people see Bob McDonnell as someone who can fix things and can get things done," Gillespie told On Call in a recent interview.
So the outcome of NY-20 will make for interesting fodder. And speculation will run rampant about its meaning; my colleague Rich Cohen of National Journal suggests in a piece today on the NJ Web site that NY-20 is just the type of district the Republicans must win in order to reclaim the House. President Bush won the CD with 54% of the vote in 2004. But follow the VA gubernatorial contest for a more reliable long view sense of what the country thinks of Obama and if the still-stumbling national GOP is regaining its footing.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
"cachet", not "cache".