CA-32: Ethnic Politics In Play In Special Election

National Journal's Jim Barnes examines the contentious battle to win the upcoming special election in California's 32nd District:

California state Sen. Gil Cedillo raised the volume this week in his campaign with state Board of Equalization vice chair Judy Chu to represent the polyglot 32nd Congressional district that's divided by the San Bernardino Freeway. After Chu won the formal backing of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa on Wednesday--one of many endorsements she has rounded up--Cedillo responded with a press release that said Villariagosa's nod shows that Chu "will cozy up to the entrenched political interests, the C-E-Os and wealthy campaign contributors and take care of their interests in Congress instead of putting the hard working families of the San Gabriel Valley first."

Chu and Cedillo are the top Democratic contenders in the open primary that will be held on May 19 to fill the congressional vacancy left when former Democratic Rep. Hilda Solis gave up her seat to become Secretary of Labor. Should no candidate receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary, a runoff election will be held on July 14, with the top Democratic vote getter and the top Republican vote getter facing off with Libertarian Party candidate Christopher M. Agrella. But the latest registration figures for the district show that the Democrats have more than a two-to-one edge in registration over the Republicans, 52 percent to 23 percent with 21 percent declining to state a partisan affiliation, so the Cedillo-Chu contest is probably going to be for the whole enchilada.

In his release, Cedillo noted that he and other Latino elected officials opposed Villaraigosa when he wanted to spend sales tax revenue dedicated for transportation projects on extending the L.A. subway through the tonier Westside neighborhood at the expense reducing clogged freeways like the San Bernardino -- and that he eventually won more funds for traffic relief in the San Gabriel Valley where the 32nd lies. Cedillo "took care of the people of the San Gabriel Valley when Antonio Villaraigosa and the L.A. powerbrokers wanted to take their tax dollars and literally send it down a hole under Wilshire Boulevard," trumpeted the press release.

Whether Cedillo's shot is a signal that the race with Chu is about to get rougher is unclear, but in this district the term-limited Latino state legislator may be tempted to play to locals and portray Chu as an outsider. According to The Almanac of American Politics, 62 percent of the district's population is of Hispanic origin and 18 percent is Asian. But voter registration figures supplied by Political Data Inc. make the district a little less daunting for Chu: 53 percent of the registered voters are Latino and 17 percent are Asian. (Alan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, estimated that about a third of registered voters in the district were white.)

"The race is not playing out on those [racial] lines so far," said veteran Democratic strategist Bill Carrick who is based in Los Angeles. Indeed, the fact that Chu is competitive in the view of local observers shows she has some cross-over appeal in the district. (Ironically, Chu actually resides inside the district while Cedillo does not.)

But Chu's also a contender in this contest because she's corralled plenty of other high-voltage endorsements like Villaraigosa's, including the California Democratic Party, the L.A. County Federation of Labor and the state's most influential union, the California Teachers Association. Plus, she's scooped up more campaign bucks than Cedillo having raised, according to Federal Election Commission figures, some $770,000 (plus a personal loan of $50,000), with almost $578,000 on hand to Cedillo's $568,000 raised with just over $441,000 cash on hand. Democrat Emanuel Pleitez, a 26-year-old financial analyst making his first run for public office, has collected almost $153,000, and has some $106,500 cash on hand.

If Chu wins the election, local observers say she will be the first Asian-American to represent the Southland in Congress. "It will be a breakthrough for Asians in a district in which they are true minority," said California political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior fellow at the School of Policy Planning and Development at the University of Southern California. "It will also mean there's been significant cross ethnic voting."

The big unknown in the primary is the turnout, traditionally low in special elections, but in this instance the May 19 primary will also be accompanied by voting on six statewide propositions to stem the red ink in the California state budget which include one that raises $16 billion in taxes [for more on the proposition battle click this link].

Some local analysts believe that more conservative white voters are sure to turn out on May 19 to cast their ballots against these propositions and that that may help Chu ever so slightly. In a closely contested race like this, every little bit counts.