Friday House Cleaning: The Numbers Game
House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd takes a look each Friday at the top five House stories of the week. Here are this week's big newsmakers, brought to you by Friday House Cleaning:
5. PVIs Are Watchin' You
Last week, the Cook Political Report released its PVIs for the new Congress, and what a treasure trove of information it is. The PVI measures how competitive a CD is by calculating the %age earned by the '04 and '08 WH contender in each CD, and then measuring it against the nation as a whole. For instance, a PVI of R+2 means the CD voted 2% more GOP in the last two WH elections than the nation as a whole.
According to this measure, Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL 06) represents the most GOP CD (with an R+29 score), while Rep. Jose Serrano (D-NY 16) represents the most Dem CD (with a D+41 score). Right in the middle at #218: Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI 01).
The biggest take away from this list, though, is that the GOP has many more target possibilities than do Dems. In the PVI, any score of R+5 to D+5 denotes a potential swing CD, and 70% of the 104 seats in this range are held by Dems. Of course, if the enviro. still stinks for GOPers in '10, none of that matters. But if things improve, the GOP has a good chance of picking up some seats in '10. Take a look at the PVI information here.
4. FECal Matter
1stQ FEC reports were due on 4/15, and as usual, there were disappointments and surprises on each side. Among freshmen, Rep. Steve Dreihaus (D-OH 01) was outraised and out-banked by ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R), signaling that not all the repeat candidates this cycle will be poor challengers. But Driehaus was the exception, not the rule, among freshmen Dems. Nine of these Dems raised over $300K, while no freshmen GOPer reached that mark. Rep. Aaron Schock came close, though, at $297K.
In fact, despite the lousy economy, '09 freshmen raised just 3% less than their '07 counterparts.
Other interesting notes: Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR 02), who sits in a GOP-trending CD, raised $0 -- that's right, ZERO -- dollars. Reps. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH 01) likely will face a strong challenge from Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R), but that didn't scare her into raising more than $130K. And despite the fact that Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL 16) was handed his seat due to scandal, he raised just $73K for his re-election. Also, GOP Reps. Michael McCaul (R-TX 10) and Dave Reichert (R-WA 08) raised less and banked less than their Dem challengers.
3. LA-02: Holy Cao
Speaking of disappointing numbers, Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA 02) raised a lackluster $130K, and has just $60K in the bank for his uphill re-election battle. That isn't the kind of pace he needed to set in order to keep this seat.
Of course, even if he raised a huge sum, his re-election would still be very much in doubt. The New Orleans-based CD -- which is 62% African-American -- gave Pres. Obama 75%, and Cao won it, much like Rooney, on a fluke.
Cao doesn't currently have any formal opponents, but it almost doesn't matter. Any Dem not named Jefferson will be favored here in '10. But Cao's fundraising certainly isn't helping his cause.
2. DE & FL-10: Boy Blues?
It's been a stellar recruiting week for Dems, as they picked up challengers to Reps. Mike Castle (R-DE) and Bill Young (R-FL 10). Both GOPers sit in CDs Obama carried, but are well-known at home and have rarely faced difficult races.
That may change this year, though. Ex-DE LG John Carney (D) will undoubtedly give Castle fits, if Castle does indeed run for re-election. He's also reportedly considering a SEN bid, or he may retire. He raised just over $70K this qtr, which heightened this speculation.
Young, meanwhile, has had to fend off rumors that he may retire. His $7K raised last qtr didn't help matters. Of course, in the 1stQ of '07 he raised just $16K, causing reports to surface that he was giving it up after 19 terms. That didn't happen, and Young came back to raise enough and chase off any credible challenger. He won in a romp. But state Sen. Charlie Justice (D) -- who begged off an '08 run -- is in, and will be no pushover.
If Castle and Young run for re-election, they're in for the races of their careers. If one or both retire, though, Dems will be favored (in DE's case, heavily so) to take over the seats.
1. NY-20 Special: Murphy's Growing Lead
Is the end approaching for Assemb. Jim Tedisco (R)? You knew his camp must've been feeling bad about the outcome when they objected to counting Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D) absentee ballot.
But on 4/15, the state Board of Elections released a tally that showed results from Saratoga Co. -- Tedisco's home turf, and his final hope in which to overcome businessman Scott Murphy's (D) tenuous lead. But while the county gave Tedisco a 163-vote victory in the absentee ballots, it wasn't enough to overtake Murphy, who now owns a 264-vote lead.
And it gets worse for the GOPer. Dutchess and Warren Cos. are the only two left that have not counted all their absentee ballots. And both went for Murphy. So Tedisco doesn't figure to net many votes out of those counties.
Of course, there are 1.2K absentees that have yet to be counted. Those are the ballots that one side or the other objected to. But Dems insist GOPers did the overwhelming majority of objecting, so it figures Tedisco won't net many votes out of that pile, either. Saratoga Co. has nearly 700 ballots that have yet to be counted, though, and if Tedisco wins a big majority there, he could still have life. But that's a big "if".
It's getting harder by the day to see how Tedisco can pull this off, but stranger things have happened.
Join the Discussion
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus