NJ Insiders: GOP More Wary Of Same Sex Marriage Issue
National Journal's regular survey of Political Insiders this week yielded some pretty interesting responses to the question of gay marriage. For starters, a solid majority of the 102 Democratic Political Insiders who were polled--59 percent--said that from a political perspective, they thought their party should support gay marriage. Only about a third said their party should "avoid the issue" and a mere 2 percent said the Democratic Party should oppose it. The remaining Democratic Insiders volunteered responses like the states should handle the issue or that the question deserved more options, that the party should support and avoid, or they replied that they'd just rather not give an answer.
On the Republican side, the results were even more intriguing. While it's probably too soon to say that the GOP with its base of conservative voters is ready to set the controversial social issue aside, Republican operatives and strategists seem to be growing wary of the issue. Exactly half of the 104 Republican Insiders who were surveyed said that their party should oppose gay marriage. Another 37 percent said they thought the party should avoid the issue, and 8 percent said the GOP should actually support gay marriage. The remainder also gave scattered volunteered responses like leave it up to the states, accept it, or that the party shouldn't care it. That's a pretty close divide between the Republican Insiders who say their party should oppose gay marriage compared to those who say avoid or support it.
But here's probably the most provocative aspect of this question. National Journal can break down the responses of its Political Insiders by whether they live or work inside the DC Beltway or whether they reside outside the Beltway. Among the Democratic Insiders, their attitudes towards gay marriage did not vary much between those inside the Beltway and those beyond: 62 percent of the Democratic Insiders outside the Beltway said the party should support gay marriage and 57 percent of the Democratic Insiders inside the Beltway concurred. About a third of both groups said the Democratic Party should avoid the issue. The Republican Insiders offered a very different picture: a narrow plurality of the GOP Insiders inside the Beltway--43 percent--said the party should avoid the issue, while 38 percent said the party should oppose gay marriage. But among the Republican Insiders outside the Beltway gay marriage drew a determined opposition: 66 percent said the party should oppose it and just 27 percent said the party should avoid the issue.
See all the data after the jump, and click this link to see the verbatim responses of the Insiders to this week's question on gay marriage as well as their response to whether or not President Obama is smart to tackle the immigration issue this year.
(National Journal's JIM BARNES)
Q. Which statement comes closest to your political views on gay marriage?
My party should support it
My party should oppose it
My party should avoid the issue
Democratic Insider Votes (102)
My party should support it 59 percent
My party should oppose it 2 percent
My party should avoid the issue 32 percent
Also receiving votes: leave it to the states, 2 percent; rather not answer, 2 percent; need more options, 1 percent; personally support, 1 percent; support and avoid, 1 percent.
Democratic Insider (within Beltway) Votes (60)
My party should support it 57 percent
My party should oppose it 3 percent
My party should avoid the issue 33 percent
Other 7 percent
Democratic Insider (outside Beltway) Votes (42)
My party should support it 62 percent
My party should oppose it 0 percent
My party should avoid the issue 31 percent
Other 7 percent
Republican Votes (104)
My party should support it 8 percent
My party should oppose it 50 percent
My party should avoid the issue 37 percent
Also receiving votes: leave it to the states, 2 percent; "accept" it, 1 percent; leave it to candidates, 1 percent; party should oppose "but not make a federal case out of it," 1 percent; "party shouldn't care," 1 percent.
Republican Insider (inside Beltway) Votes (60)
My party should support it 8 percent
My party should oppose it 38 percent
My party should avoid the issue 43 percent
Other 10 percent
Republican Insider (outside Beltway) Votes (44)
My party should support it 7 percent
My party should oppose it 66 percent
My party should avoid the issue 27 percent
Other 0 percent
Interesting poll.
The polling I'd like to see, though, is internal GOP polls on how to play against gay rights in 2010 and beyond. Their increasingly rabid base demands desperate measures against the "gay peril" -- and any hope for a GOP revival requires exactly the opposite.
Given Bush & Rove's cynical exploitation of homophobia in 2004, I'd say the GOP today is getting exactly what it deserves -- which is almost as satisfying to witness as seeing equality spread across the land!
You folks have it all wrong. The Republicans aren't out of power because they opposed gay marriage. In fact, it was hardly an issue in 2008 or 2006. Just look at how voters in California and Florida rejected gay marriage while voting for Obama by a majority. The Republicans are doing the right thing to oppose gay marriage. It only helps them because a solid majority of Americans agree with them. I don't think that the GOP will support gay marriage anytime soon.
Are the democrats who say the party should avoid the issue concerned for power and control reasons?
It is this attitude that gets the democrats in trouble at election time. We need every democrat to be bold leaders, and proud of their decisions. We need them to rise up and show the opponents of equality how they're wrong, like rubbing their faces in their own sh*t.
That is leadership! Not avoidance!
The Republicans will continue with their anti-gay rabble rousing because honestly, what else do they have to offer? And if they do so, they will continue losing the youth of America who Just. Don't. Care.
Gay marriage is a local, and not a national, issue. If you are a congressman in rural Texas, opposing gay marriage is a winner for you. In urban Chicago, you should actively support it.
Nationally, however, support or opposition each carry huge risks...risks that Democrats are willing to take, mainly because they know the moderate middle is more horrified by civil rights violations than they are about gender roles. Republicans, on the other hand, now desperately need to chip away at the middle. This means they can't alienate moderates by opposing gay marriage, even as they also can't risk alienating their base.
So the formula goes thusly: Democrats have more and incentive to actively pursue marriage equality, while Republicans pretty much have to sit this one out.
That, and the gender divide are why gay marriage is inevitable.
The tide is turning - eventually gay and lesbian people will have marriage equality. I expect to see it in my lifetime, and it is something my children and grandchildren all support.
Those opposing gay marriage seem to be the grey hairs my age and the uber religious nuts at this point. The later being tired and truly hateful in their quest for a more "christian" nation.
Right of center Americans like myself have watched them ruin our party (GOP),and are ready for them to just disappear, die off, or form their own party. They are losing, and Americans for equality are winning.
I'm 28, and part of the generation that has grown up to be extremely tolerant of GLBT people, and also have the pleasure of teaching the next generation, who are by and large just as tolerant as us if not more so.
NOM et al probably have about 10 years left, tops, before the generation they represent ceases to be the majority in this country.
Gay marriage, and the end of homophobia is the social justice issue of our time. In a weird way, Some of us may end up being thankful for the presidency of George Satan Bush. For it exposed to so many what is really the neo-nazi like corruption in the republican party. And believe it or not, I've seen data that says that a majority of catholic parishioners and lots of priests believe that gays should be treated equally, although the marriage- civil union issue still hangs around their necks. Of course, the tyranny of Rome keeps the priests in the closet on this issue.
And yes, I am aware of how the young generation is so progressive on this issue. An example is that in many schools, gay kids coming out of the closet are looked up to as brave, and respected for it. An enormous change. I worked with a lot of kids at circuit city for 7 years, and 90% of them had nothing against gays at all, most had gay friends, and we were able to drive the bible thumper out of the place, using his own anxieties against him, good riddance to the jerk.
Even the evangelical group youth are beginning to stir on this issue, and other progressive issues within the evangelical community. Nothing works wonders so much as real education, vs church dogma and fantasy and even hatred. Think of the political implications.
BTW We had those sick people - the Phelps family - 6 of them come to MD to protest a GSA at Towson High, and while only one or two people wanted to to join them, 400 noisy, screaming students showed up from school, telling Phelps mentally ill gang to GTH. Those freaks are really an asset for justice, show the world and especially the kids what conservative religious beliefs are all about, as if we didn't learn from 9/11. We should thank Phelps, wait for the old man to croak, and do unspeakable things to his grave, as a way of properly thanking him, in a weird sense.
So, the republican party will hopefully become a minority party for a couple generations. Gays will achieve equality in so many ways, and the homophobic churches will suffer as they deserve, as their good parishioners and yes even priests change religions, since it is obvious that Benedicts mind is set in cement. As are the new KKK - the right wing Krazy Kristian Kultists whose forbears gave us slavery and segregation, institutions which they still long for, will lose power also.
What a change a President makes.
And maybe, in a metaphorical sense, The Christians are right about Jesus returning. He has returned - to save America from the monstrosity and damage of Bush and company. And as some people have argued over the centuries about Jesus, maybe really Jesus was Black.
The majority of the youth of America do not care about anything, so that is hardly an argument.
I am part of the youth of America also and I would be horrified if civil unions were legalized. In fact, I propose that we ban civil unions nationwide!
You can still have gay friends, but you should not be encouraging them to continue their immoral behavior.