On The "Road" Again
Hotline's "Road to 2010" series kicked off today with an unexpected gift: a prolonged NY-20 special election. And two of the panel's four guests -- executive directors of the House and Senate campaign cmtes -- took the opportunity to spin the unfinished race.
NRCC Exec. Dir. Guy Harrison repeatedly took the DCCC to task for touting a model that shows businessman Scott Murphy (D) winning a majority of the 6K uncounted absentee ballots -- and therefore the race. Murphy holds a 65-vote lead, and the model shows him winning by 210 votes.
Instead, Harrison pointed to the CD's party regisration as reason why Assemb. Jim Tedisco (R) will have the edge after all the ballots are counted, a process that's likely to begin 4/13. "We feel pretty good where we are based on the voter registration numbers there," Harrison said, referring to the 70K+ GOP registration advantage in the CD.
But DCCC exec. dir. Jon Vogel said he was confident Murphy would "pick up votes" in the process.
As was common during the entire race, both cmtes were content to downplay expectations in case their side doesn't come out the winner. Harrison noted Tedisco took "a competitive stand" in the what's been a difficult region for the GOP in the last several cycles -- the Northeast. Vogel, meanwhile, said Murphy overcame the GOP registration edge in the CD, and attempted to throw cold water on the GOP's take that its NY-20 performance means it's doing better in the Northeast. He noted the CD doesn't look like a "typical" (read: suburban) Northeast CD, and in fact is quite rural and exurban -- usually GOP territory.
Other highlights:
-- Harrison took on Speaker Nancy Pelosi (CA-08), saying "she creates new Republican donors every single day." He also criticized her for not stumping for Murphy in NY-20. He suggested she might not campaign in any competitive CDs this cycle.
-- When asked to name the most vulnerable seats on the other side, Vogel pointed to PA-06 (Jim Gerlach), DE (Mike Castle) and MI-11 (Thad McCotter). Harrison said GOPers are particularly interested in MD-01 (Frank Kratovil), NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter) and freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D), whom Harrison called a "walking quote machine."
-- On the Senate side, DSCC exec. dir. J.B. Poersch listed sitting GOP senators in KY (Jim Bunning), PA (Arlen Specter), NC (Richard Burr) and LA (David Vitter), while NRSC exec. dir. Rob Jesmer mentioned CT (Chris Dodd), IL (Roland Burris) and NV (Harry Reid).
-- Jesmer refused to rule out, or speculate whatsoever, on what the NRSC would do if Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) ran for re-election as an independent, simply noting that Specter is currently running as a Republican.
-- Asked if popular Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) could be defeated should he run for FL's open SEN seat, Poersch commented that Crist does indeed have baggage and would likely be perceived by voters differently by October of 2010 than he is now, should he give up the governorship in the middle of an economic crisis.
-- Regarding the MN SEN recount, five months ongoing and counting, Jesmer noted the inequity inherent when different counties employ different standards for the counting of absentee ballots, while Poersch emphasized the fairness of the recount and subsequent legal proceedings as evidenced by their length.
(QUINN MCCORD/TIM SAHD)
Hi,
Please forget the spin, forget the "model".
Just stick to plain old fashion "hand count"
all the ballots, including voters intent.
And may the best candidate win.
Frank Henry
Cottonwood, Arizona
Tel: 928-649-0249
e-mail: fmhenry4@netzero.com