Gov. John Lynch (D) has boffo approval ratings, hasn't a political rival of any strength on the horizon and isn't seeking NH's likely open Senate seat in '10. So why is he fence-sitting on the gay marriage bill recently approved by the state Legislature?
Though the region has trended solidly in favor of gay marriage, with VT, MA and ME leading the way, Lynch faces a dilemma unlike any he's tackled since his election in '04. His state, after decades as a GOP stronghold, has trended solidly Dem since his election. But on the campaign trail, Lynch, winning his third term last year by more than 40 points, hasn't hedged in stating his belief that marriage is between a man and a woman.
So does he stick with his principles or bend to the will of lawmakers?
"I think this may be the first significant test that he has faced," said Claire Ebel, exec. dir. of the New Hampshire Civil Liberties Union. "This is clearly an issue where there is very strong vocal opposition, even though I think it is minimal."
In the state's Dem-dominated House and Senate, votes for the bill were largely along party lines. But in the most recent UNH Survey Center poll, more than half - 55% - of state residents were in favor of gay marriage, while 39% opposed it.
Lynch's approval ratings have crested 70% since Oct. '05, according to Andy Smith, dir. of the UNH Survey Center. So the gov has the popularity to back the measure or buck his party.
"He's got more political capital to spare than almost any governor in the country," Smith said. "So he's in an excellent position based on what he thinks are the merits of the legislation, and he doesn't have to worry about the political considerations."
But some argue that there's something even more critical than politics at stake in Lynch's determination. His word is on the line. They say that inherent in Lynch's personal declaration was his vow to veto a proposal like the one headed to his desk.
"If the governor signs it there will be some who will argue he has changed his position," said GOP atty Tom Rath, who hasn't taken a public position on the bill.
Lynch, a soft-spoken former furniture company CEO, has been lobbied feverishly by groups and individuals on both sides of the initiative. Freedom to Marry has aired a television ad playing off the state's beloved motto, "Live free or die." It advises, "Live and let live, New Hampshire."
"We thank our Legislature for working to protect jobs, strengthen our economy and protect our civil rights," a female narrator says. "Now Governor Lynch has an opportunity to protect all New Hampshire families and treat every committed couple equally.
Meanwhile, Cornerstone Policy Research, a conservative group, has circulated a Web video suggesting: "It's time for the governor to keep his word."
Lynch has three options. He could sign the bill, veto it or let it become law without his signature. The proposal is sitting in state House Speaker Terie Norelli's (D) office, waiting for her to sign off; she backed the bill during the vote. From there it will go to state Senate Pres. Sylvia Larsen (D), another supporter, and then to Sec/State Bill Gardner (D). Gardner will deliver it to Lynch, and the gov. will have five days from the day after he receives it (including a Saturday but not a Sunday) to make up his mind.
Put simply, with the Legislative session in its waning weeks, Lynch's colleagues have bought him some extra time as he weighs perhaps the most potentially polarizing decision of his tenure. He risks alienating his base, but are those supporters likely to defect over one disagreement? And where would they go? To a primary challenger? Possibly, but not likely. Social conservatives aren't necessarily with Lynch anyway, though he could win friends on the right by breaking with his party.
If Lynch signs the bill, NH would become the sixth state to make gay marriage legal, following CT, MA, ME, VT and IA. The NY assembly passed a bill to legalize gay marriage 5/12, but reports indicate it will face a tough battle in the state Senate.
Lynch certainly didn't run on the issue. As the state has moved left, however, there's a groundswell of support for new social measures - lawmakers are also considering a medical marijuana bill - that would be divisive in any State House debate in the country, but that might garner more public support in the libertarian Granite State.
For Lynch, the matter has sparked a test of his will and philosophy. And he risks being viewed as weak if he chooses not to take a stand.
"I think it would benefit the governor were he to sign the bill," Ebel said, "because I think he would then be seen as a governor with the courage to say, even though this is not my religious belief or not my philosophical belief, I also understand the wisdom, the rightness of not discriminating against a segment of the populace, people I serve as well."
(JENNIFER SKALKA)