Deeds Motivates Base; McAuliffe Loss Wraps Clinton Era

ARLINGTON -- State Sen. Creigh Deeds, the Bath Co. Dem, waged a come-from-behind victory in the VA governor's Dem nom contest, trouncing moneyed ex.-DNC chief Terry McAuliffe and ex.-Del. Brian Moran in today's primary, and setting up a rematch with GOPer Bob McDonnell, to whom Deeds narrowly lost the '05 AG campaign.

Deeds' resounding win marked a firm denunciation of McAuliffe's glossy campaign, his debut run for elected office which featured help from national political figures from Pres. Clinton to the leader of the DGA, and financing from the likes of Donald Trump, media magnate Haim Saban and Hyatt hotel heir J.B. Pritzker. McAuliffe easily raised big money for his six-month endeavor, $6.9M, but in this off-year contest, in the state that had forcefully turned back his '08 presidential candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton, voters opted for the only homegrown candidate of the trio.

This evening, Deeds, who was no doubt buoyed by an endorsement from the Washington Post in the waning weeks of the contest, a nod that gave him credibility in critical Northern VA counties, acknowledged his unexpected victory. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Deeds leads, 50% to 26%, with Moran at 24%.

"No one could have imagined what we have accomplished here tonight in the Commonwealth of Virginia," he said. "The thunderstorms, the rain, the hail, didn't stop you from coming out to make your voice heard...And, whether that vote was cast in Arlington or Abingdon or Highland or Henrico or right here in Thomas Jefferson's home -- the city of Charlottesville -- it was a vote to continue the progress we've made together under Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine."

McAuliffe, who grew up in Syracuse, N.Y., said he told Deeds in a phone conversation that he would do all he needed to help him triumph in the fall.

"I told him something that I know everyone in this room agrees with that he must be the next governor of Virginia, and that I will do everything possible to help make sure he is the next Governor of Virginia," McAuliffe said. "Virginia needs Creigh Deeds."

Both national parties are eyeing the Virginia general election contest with deep interest. For Democrats, a win in November will solidify the state's left-leaning trend; the Old Dominion has elected two Dem senators, back-to-back Dem governors in Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, now also head of the DNC, and Obama overwhelmingly for president. Republicans, however, see Obama's win as an anomaly and believe they're fielding a strong gubernatorial candidate in McDonnell, who resigned as AG to run fulltime.

McDonnell has had the luxury over the last six months of raising money and defining his experience. He has aired light biographical ads that showcase his Army service, stint as a prosecutor and family of five children. He is drawing big national names to VA, meanwhile, to help him raise money, some $8.8M already, according to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project.

But tonight's results revealed an important dynamic in the VA political scene that could worry Republicans: the Dem base is still intensely motivated. Turnout was about double that of the '06 SEN primary contest between Harris Miller and Jim Webb, shattering expectations that voter fatigue had set in after the '08 WH campaign, when almost 1M voters cast ballots in the Dem primary, and discouraging speculation that Obama alone can spark widespread voter commitment in VA.

Still, from the start of the gubernatorial contest, it was McAuliffe's race to win or lose. He had the money, the campaign and messaging savvy, and the high-profile friends.

Pres. Clinton stumped for him in Richmond and Roanoke and in the Washington suburbs. The former president explained that as a one-time governor of Arkansas, he knows what it takes to run a state and that McAuliffe has the business credentials.

"Yeah, he's made a lot of money," Clinton said of McAuliffe during an April rally in Richmond. "He did that by taking care of other people."

For McAuliffe, though, meshing his past experience with the needs of this diverse and politically changing state proved a challenge. With Pres. Clinton by his side, he had to downplay his role as chairman of Hillary Clinton's '08 campaign; VA, after all, handed Obama a 29-point win over Hillary Clinton in the primary and then made Obama the first Dem in 44 years to win the state's vote in a presidential contest.

McAuliffe also struggled to push himself as an effective job creator - as an advocate of a practically Clintonesque 'It's the economy, stupid' message - while avoiding specifics about the businesses he'd run, including a bank and a Florida housing company, among others, and the vast sums of money he had made in the process. Instead, he talked often on the trail of the driveway repair business he started as a teen. McAuliffe also failed to address the specifics of his $100K investment in Global Crossing, the now-bankrupt telecommunications giant. McAuliffe made at least $8.1M from the sale of his stock, with some reports indicating he earned as much as $18M.

Too often, voters said, the campaign appeared overly packaged, with slick, high-production value ads; he ran more than a half dozen. And though McAuliffe lived in McLean for 17 years, he couldn't overcome his lack of involvement in VA politics. National Journal reported in the May 23 edition of the magazine that in the decade leading up to his gubernatorial bid, McAuliffe didn't contribute to a single candidate for state office.

For Deeds, there were two clear turning points in the contest: the decision to keep his job as state senator -- unlike Moran, who resigned his seat in the House of Delegates to run fulltime, and raise money -- and The Washington Post endorsement.

Deeds took a gamble in holding on to his day job. But when the legislative session ended -- having taken up half of the first fundraising quarter of this year; lawmakers are prohibited from raising campaign money while they're working -- and Deeds emerged with more cash in the bank than rival Moran, he gave the chattering class reason to pause and reconsider his bid. He'd managed his money and fulfilled his responsibility to VA residents.

At the same time, Moran had botched his opportunity to go head-to-head with McAuliffe without Deeds in the contest, and he failed to raise enough money to make him more competitive.

Moran, this evening, said Deeds' win proved he was "invincible."

Voters heading to three Alexandria polling places, George Mason Elementary, Mount Vernon Recreation Center and Blessed Sacrament Catholic Church, today described McAuliffe's effort as "artificial" and the candidate as a "carpetbagger." Some suggested the bid seemed to be run by the "Clinton camp."

Mary Gillman, a software engineer voting at George Mason, said the Post endorsement helped sway her to Deeds - though she didn't make up her mind until last night. She said McAuliffe doesn't have the legislative experience to govern.

"I think that it would be very difficult for him to get anything done in Richmond," she said.

One 60-something male, also voting at George Mason, said he supported Moran but that he likes Deeds. He called him a "nice boy."

"I almost wish I could vote for two, I would," said the voter, who asked not to be named.

Karis Cavender, an Alexandria resident who cast her ballot yesterday for Deeds at Blessed Sacrament on W. Braddock Road, called McAuliffe a "used car salesman."

"There's something I don't trust about him," Cavender said, her infant daughter, Natalie, in her arms. Cavender said she feared Moran was "too left, too Northern Virginia" to defeat McDonnell in the fall.

But Deeds, she noted: "I think he's the most likely Democrat to win statewide."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)