Obama Losing Debate On Detainees, Poll Finds
The first polling on Guantanamo Bay conducted since Pres. Obama and Dick Cheney's nat'l security showdown last month indicates that by a 2-to-1 margin, most Americans are opposed to closing the prison and moving detainees to the U.S. -- a sharp rebuke of Obama's proposal.
Sixty-five percent of respondents in the 5/29-31 USA Today/Gallup poll said they are opposed to shuttering Gitmo, while 32% support the idea. Meanwhile, 74% of all respondents oppose and only 23% support moving detainees to a prison in their home state.
USA Today's Susan Page said that given Obama's high approval rating, it's "exceptional" that he "has not yet persuaded people" on this issue. Even among Dems, 52% are in favor closing Gitmo, while 43% are opposed. That's a "pretty high level of disagreement with the president," Page said, and not the overwhelming margin Obama enjoys on other issues such as health care and the economy.
Do the numbers mean, then, that Cheney has prevailed in the debate over detainees?
Page said that since 9/11, GOPers have made a case on terrorism that has continued to resonate with voters.
"It's one area where you've heard a consistent Republican message, especially from Vice President Cheney," she said.
Brookings fellow/New Republic columnist Benjamin Wittes said that while the poll shows Cheney has been "quite effective in making his point," the "lion's share" of the survey's findings reflect the "gulf" that has opened between elites and majority opinion.
"You hear [elites say], 'Close Guantanamo, close Guantanamo, close Guantanamo,' and you hear the public and they say, 'Don't close Guantanamo, and don't bring them anywhere near me,'" Wittes said.
Wittes added that the admin. has "made the judgment" that Gitmo "is not an issue in which public opinion is driving them." But the "danger sign" for Obama would be an erosion of his overall approval numbers on handling terrorism, which currently stands at 55%, according to the USA Today/Gallup survey.
But even before the Cheney-Obama face-off, Senate Dems balked at the admin.'s request for $80M in funding to close the detainee camp. That indicates the poll results are a "reflection of the political realities [people's] own senators are facing," said Heritage Foundation fellow Cully Stimson, an ex-Dep. Asst. Sec. of Defense for Detainee Affairs. "I see [Cheney] as the synthesis of a lot of the [American people's] discomfort," Stimson said, although the poll "is a fairly strong snap judgment that the president has not made his case to the American people."
As Obama departs this evening for the Middle East, the poll numbers are a stark reminder of the political hurdles facing him at home.
(FELICIA SONMEZ)