VA GOV: No Good Deeds Goes...
Earlier today Rasmussen Reports released their first post-Dem primary ballot test between state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) and ex-AG Bob McDonnell (R). In their new IVR survey, conducted 6/10, Deeds leads McDonnell 47-41% -- a 21% swing from McDonnell's 45-30% lead in their last survey, conducted 4/15.
Dems are quick to highlight the poll as evidence they are coming together for the general election campaign. Indeed, Rasmussen shows the number of undec Dems to be "significantly lower" than the number of undec GOPers and Indies. The sharp spike in Deeds' fav rating since 4/15 also builds upon similar growth in other polls. But that's only half the story.
The poll was taken 6/10 -- the day after the primary election -- as Deeds graced every newscast and front page in the Commonwealth. It was also the same day he held an event with widely popular VA Gov. Tim Kaine (D), as well as his vanquished primary opponents, ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe (D) and ex-Del. Brian Moran (D).
And finally, the poll shows Deeds up within the margin of error. But McDonnell's leads in previous Rasmussen matchups with Deeds this year have all been outside the margin of error; he led by 15% on 4/15 and 9% on 2/4.
So, Deeds may look good in this poll, but it's just one survey taken five months before election day. Through the primary, the Deeds storyline was one of surprising and unending momentum. The Rasmussen poll appears to suggest that could continue to be the case, but a poll a few weeks removed from Deeds' surprising and decisive primary victory will offer a clearer picture of where he stands with the general electorate.
The Rasmussen survey, conducted 6/10, surveyed 500 VA LVs and has margin of error +/- 4.4%.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB and EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)