VA GOV: Registrars Predict Light Turnout

As the polls have tightened in the race for the Dem nomination in VA GOV, the focus has shifted to voter turnout, and several registrars from across the state told On Call they expect it will be light for this off-year election.

The number of voters who make it to the polls 6/9 could produce a vastly different outcome in the competitive contest between the three Dems vying to be the party's nom: ex-DNC chair Terry McAuliffe (D), state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D), ex-Del. Brian Moran (D). Small turnout could be bad for McAuliffe -- who, more than Moran and Deeds, is hoping for high numbers of voters. McAuliffe is relying on a strategy that mirrors Pres. Obama's '08 campaign. He hopes to see large numbers of new voters turnout to defeat the more traditional establishment-Dem GOTV operations of his rivals.

Deeds and Moran, by contrast, can live with a low turnout. Their GOTV model relies on supporters, including legislators, mayors and other local leaders, to turn out their small armies of reliable Dem voters.

Registrats in Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Richmond and Alexandria told On Call said that the devoted are casting early ballots.

"You'll see the religious voters, the ones that never miss an election," Norfolk deputy registrar John Merkel said. "Other than them, I don't forsee a big turnout. But, hey, you never know."

The earliest indicator of turnout, of course, are absentee ballots, which are still coming in, but all the registrars interviewed said the numbers were lower than they expected. The historic general election last year was in part defined by absentee and early balloting, with thousands of voters statewide who cast their ballots in the days before the election. But the registrars said that boost in absentee turnout in '08 hasn't necessarily translated to an increase in participation this year.

Merkel and his colleague in Alexandria, deputy registrar Ginny Franco, each said high turnout would be surprising, though they agreed that portions of the turnout picture are still hazy. Franco said absentee turnout in her office has been lower overall than what she saw in the '06 Dem SEN primary when ex-lobbyist Harris Miller was defeated by Sen. Jim Webb. But among in-person early voters there have been some signs that interest might pick up.

"Somedays it feels like we're never going to get to 10,000 [votes]," Alexandria said. "Others, it looks like we're going to hit that and then some."

Both cities could be key to the election. The contest for Northern Virginia, once expected to be the natural base for Moran, the former state Del. from Alexandria and the brother of Rep. Jim Moran (D-08), has tightened considerably according to recent polls. If Deeds can make a decent dent there -- 20% or so, his camp says -- it could turn NoVA from Moran's blessing to his curse.

"In Alexandria I thought there'd be more excitement about this race considering it's Moran's hometown," she said. "But it's really not much."

Franco says she expects "similar to lower" turnout in Alexandria than there was in '06, when 7.7% of voters cast ballots. But not all NoVA turnout projections are created equal. In a projection released Friday, Arlington treasurer Frank O'Leary predicted a "record turnout" in the region.

Norfolk is one of the larger cities in the Hampton Roads region of VA. All three candidates have spent a lot of time and resources there. McAuliffe, who has lived in McLean for 17 years, is hoping to do well with the area's black voter population, which he's spent much of his time courting during the course of the campaign. If they don't turnout in big numbers, he could find himself wedged between Moran's base to the north and Deeds' constituency in the South and rural pockets of the state.

Merkel suggested that McAuliffe's attempts to sway Norfolk voters to his cause are still a work in progress. About 50% of the absentee ballots Merkel's office mailed have yet to be returned.

"I'm surprised we haven't gotten more back," he said. "It tells me that people are still deciding [who to vote for]."

The registrars in Virgina Beach and Richmond offered a clearer vision of what might happen in their respective regions. Richmond General Registrar Kirk Showalter didn't hestitate when asked to predict the turnout in her city. "Low," she said emphatically.

"Richmond tends to perk up its ears if there's a local interest the primary," she explained. "But all the candidates [for GOV] are from outside the area." At the outset of the primary camp, Showalter said she'd projected a 15% turnout in the Dem race. But after seeing lower-than-expected absentee turnout, she revised that outlook. "That's probably more than a little ambitious based on what we're seeing."

Virginia Beach assist. registrar Tracey Gibson said the added attention on the Dem primary in recent weeks hasn't excited her voters. She said she expected a 4-6% turnout, about what the city "normally does" in a primary.

"It doesn't surprise me at all," Gibson said when asked why people weren't more engaged this time around. "People just don't tend to turnout for primary elections in Virginia."

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)