Friday House Cleaning: Mark'd Man

House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd takes a look each Friday at the top five House stories of the week. Here are this week's big newsmakers, brought to you by Friday House Cleaning.

5. Dem Fundraising: Sign Of The Himes

GOPers have been on a roll in recruiting, but while Dems may find themselves on the defense this cycle, their incumbents will have one advantage over GOPers: fundraising. And Rep. Jim Himes' (D-CT 04) 2ndQ take of $520K should be a loud warning that Dems will not lay down. Full numbers are due out next Weds., but most Dems are expected to continue to post solid numbers.

Very few Dems had lackluster 1stQ fundraising numbers, and those that did (expressly, NH-01's Carol Shea-Porter) needed to use the 2ndQ to catch up. But Shea-Porter's an exception, and not the rule, and there will be few Dems who are vulnerable in '10 because of poor fundraising.

4. VA-02: Keys To Victory?

Car dealership owner Scott Rigell (R) announced this week he'll challenge Rep. Glenn Nye (D) in his VA beach-area CD. Rigell joins a crowd of GOPers looking at this race, but appears to be the party's favorite to take on Nye. Indeed, the only other announced candidate who has filed an FEC report, Marine veteran Chuck Smith (R), has raised only $580 so far.

GOPers believe Nye is vulnerable in a CD that gave Pres. Obama a 50-48% win (thanks to the help of the CD's large African-American pop.) but has historically been a GOP seat. The NRCC also hit Nye this week for taking two positions on the climate change bill in correspondence with a liberal blogger, even though he voted against it.

Rigell looks like a top-tier challenger, and could give Nye a very tough race, especially if the midterm election produces a lower African-American turnout for Nye.

3. OH-15: Buckeye Bash

Another place where GOPers will benefit from a lower midterm turnout (in this case, Ohio State Univ. students) is Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy's (D) Columbus-based CD. And GOPers believe they've found the right candidate, again, in '08 nominee/ex-state Sen. Steve Stivers (R).

Stivers lost the '08 race by just 2.3K votes, while Obama easily carried the CD by a 54-45% margin. The GOP's hopes are based on several factors: First, Stivers ran a strong campaign and was a good candidate; Second, Kilroy has always had high negative ratings, and with controversial votes on cap-and-trade and the stimulus, those may continue to sag; and third, the presence of a conservative third party candidate may not be an issue this year. Conservative-leaning third party candidates Don Eckhart (a pro-life candidate) and Libertarian Mark Noble took over 8%, enough votes to give Stivers the win. If they don't run in '10, he automatically has an easier race.

Of course, Kilroy is now an incumbent, and will enjoy the fruits of that position. And if Obama decides to hit the trail in '10, a visit here may indeed boost her standing, if needed. Still, this race promises to be one of the cycle's top contests.

2. NM-02: Enchanted, I'm Sure

Another race, another GOP repeat candidate. This week, '08 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R) announced he'd challenge Rep. Harry Teague (D) in the rural Second District.

Up until a few weeks ago, Teague hadn't really given GOPers much help with his relatively moderate voting record. But then came his "yes" vote on the controversial cap-and-trade bill. That vote prompted Pearce -- who had been considering a GOV run -- to switch back into the House race.

Pearce was sufficiently popular in this CD to earn two relatively easy re-election contests in '04 and '06. He bombed out in the SEN contest, but still out-performed '08 NM-02 nominee Ed Tinsley (R) in almost every county in the CD. He's a strong candidate, and this may be one of the most-watched races in the country, both because it features two able candidates, and because the CD is very winnable for GOPers (John McCain won it in '08).

1. IL-10: Open, Or Closed, Case?

Depending on the day, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) is in or out of the SEN race. On 7/8, he was in. Today, he's out. But he's also being asked to reconsider.

His plans may be a popular parlor game in DC, but it's no game to the NRCC. If he stays out of the SEN contest and runs for re-election, he saves the party lots of money, even though Dems will have a very tough opponent in state Sen. Michael Bond (D) to run against him. If it's an open seat, Dems will have a very good shot at taking the seat down.

We'll hopefully know soon what Kirk's intentions are. But for GOPers, his decision will have very important consequences.