GOPers Most Likely To Flip For Sotomayor
There's little suspense remaining in the confirmation of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the nation's highest court; the numbers are on her side. But the most important lingering question is: by what margin will the Senate approve her?
Having a rocky summer over health-care reform, the Obama admin. could use a win -- and preferably one in which they run up the score. But thus far, as Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid and Senate Judiciary Cmte Chair Pat Leahy (D-VT) noted yesterday, the GOP has been less willing to support Sotomayor than expected -- Sen. Lamar Alexander's (R-TN) surprising offer of support today notwithstanding.
Meanwhile, it isn't safe to assume that Reid will be able to hold his caucus together. Some red-state Dems, particularly after the NRA said it was going to include the Sotomayor vote on its scorecards, have been hesitant to commit to supporting her.
Here are On Call's picks for the GOP senators most likely to flip:
1. Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH): Gregg won't seek re-election in '10, and he has shown significant deference to Obama's appointees (he was, after all, Obama's pick to head the Commerce Dept., for a short while).
2. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): Nearly 30% of AZ's population is Hispanic, and McCain's BFF, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), was the only Senate Judiciary Republican to break with this party. But McCain is also feeling some heat on the right; Minutemen co-founder Chris Simcox is planning a primary challenge.
3. Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO): A spokesperson for the retiring Bond said that he is inclined to support Sotomayor. But Bond helped lead the charge against State Dept. legal adviser Harold Koh over concerns that Koh might supplant American law with transnational law based on his past writings. Sotomayor's beliefs about how or if judges should consider foreign or international law was a major GOP theme during her confirmation hearings.
4. Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH): Guns won't be an issue for the retiring Voinovich, who helped Dems shoot down the Thune amendment, which would have lifted some restrictions on bringing concealed weapons over state lines. Voinovich doesn't have many GOP friends right now, either, after he said 7/27 that the party was "being taken over by Southerners." But Voinovich also voted against Solicitor Gen. Elena Kagan, who some think might be Obama's next SCOTUS choice, back in March.
5. Sen. John Ensign (R-NV): A longshot, but the beleaguered Ensign has a little more than three years to rehabilitate his reputation before his re-election bid. Where to start: his conservative base, or the 25%-and-growing Hispanic population of his home state?
On the Dem side, several members haven't weighed in with a decision, though most are expected to back their president's pick. Still a couple could buck the party to keep the faith with their conservative home states:
1. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE): The pro-life Benator continues to hedge on Sotomayor. He has voted in favor of each of Obama's exec. branch nominees -- though he said he could not support Dawn Johnsen to lead DoJ's Office of Legal Counsel because of her previous work for NARAL. The GOP in his home state thinks he's going to support Sotomayor and has already started hitting him for it. "Washington Ben has his mind made up," NE GOP Chair Mark Fahleson said in a statement today, "but Nebraska Ben isn't willing to share his decision with us until the eleventh hour."
2. Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK): Begich strongly supports gun rights, and he told Jess Brady of Roll Call that he has yet to make up his mind on Sotomayor, despite a 45-minute meeting back on 6/24 that he described at the time as a "pleasant and focused discussion." The NRA's scorecard could be weighing heavily on the freshman's mind.
(STEVEN SHEPARD)
You might note that McCain voted against Sotomayor back when she was up for her current Appeals Court position. Gregg, Voinovich, Begich, and Nelson will almost certainly vote for her. I wrote a full vote count a week ago on my intrade blog, and its turned out very accurate thus far.
As for NRA's scorecard affecting Begich's vote, I remember reading in the New York Times that while the NRA opposes Sotomayor, they will not consider this vote when grading Senators. This doesn't mean that Begich's desire to shore up his pro-gun credentials won't affect his vote.
Ignore my last comment. After looking at another site (which I had open when I wrote my previous comment but hadn't yet read), apparently NRA is going to use the Sotomayor vote when scoring senators.
Still waiting for Voinovich to weigh in. Since he is resigning, I assume it will be a yes vote.
complex post. due one detail where I bicker with it. I am emailing you in detail.
Best wishes and keep posting.