UNH Poll: Ayotte Most Formidable Challenge To Hodes

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center released a poll today showing that almost 9 of 10 NH voters are undecided about whom they'll back in the contest to replace retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R). But AG Kelly Ayotte (R), who hasn't yet announced her intentions but is rumored to be strongly considering a bid, would match-up best against Rep. Paul Hodes, the only declared Dem candidate.

Thirty-nine percent of likely voters would support Ayotte, 35% would back Hodes, 2%
would back some other candidate and 24% are undecided, according to the poll. Ayotte leads in part because Independents prefer her over Hodes, 33% to 26%.

"Even though she has not run for elected office, Kelly Ayotte presents a formidable challenge for Paul Hodes," said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, in a statement. "Hodes certainly has an advantage in having shown to voters and fundraisers that he can win in New Hampshire, but Ayotte has a strong positive image in the eyes of voters."

Ex-Sen. John E. Sununu (R) announced this week that he will not run for Gregg's seat. The poll, already in the field, however, shows Hodes edging Sununu with 43% to 41%, with 1% for some other candidate, and 14% are not sure.

Ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (R) would run close to Hodes, 40% to 38%; 2% would chose some other candidate and 20% are unsure. Bass runs stronger among independent voters, 34% to Hodes' 22%.

Longshot GOP candidate Fred Tausch, a Nashua businessman who is already airing TV ads, proved the weakest in a head-to-head against Hodes. Hodes's advantage is 20 points, 45% to 25%, with 1% for some other candidate, and 29% are undecided.

Contributing to the broader indecision among voters, of course, is that the GOP hasn't settled on a candidate or candidates even. Only 4% of those polled say they have definitely decided for whom they plan to vote, 8% say they are leaning toward a candidate, and 88% say they have considered some candidates but are still trying to decide.

The poll of 558 randomly selected NH adults was conducted by telephone between 6/24 and 7/1. It shows that the race is very much in flux. But it's also clear that Ayotte, the state's first female AG, represents a most formidable hurdle for Hodes -- despite the state's move left over the last five years. NH is notoriously unpredictable, and while there's a Dem in the gov's office and the party dominates both chambers of the legislature, there's no telling if a young female GOPer and mother of two could stop that trend cold.

The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1 percent.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)