Is Daggett Doging Christie?
A new survey of NJ LVs conducted 8/12-21 by Neighborhood Research (R) shows ex-U.S. atty Chris Christie (R) leading Gov. Jon Corzine (D) by just 3%. The previous NJ GOV poll, conducted 8/11-12 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) showed Christie with a 5% lead. In contrast, the three non-partisan polls conducted this month show Christie with leads of between 8% and 13%.
One key difference among the surveys is the addition of ex-EPA regional admin. Chris Daggett (I) to the ballot. In the new GOP poll, Christie leads Corzine 39-36% with Daggett at 6%; Greenberg, meanwhile, shows Christie up 40-35% with Daggett at 10%. These Aug. polls by Quinnipiac University, Daily Kos/Research 2000 and Rasmussen Reports, however, only test the incumbent and GOP challenger, which may contribute to Christie's wider margins.
That Daggett may be taking votes from Christie isn't that surprising. For Dems and indies who aren't inclined to support Corzine, and are wary of supporting a GOPer, Daggett is an attractive protest vote. Still, Daggett's numbers are high for an indie candidate in New Jersey. In '05, only 4% of voters, some 80K, supported for a third party candidate on Election Day.
However, this race is reminiscent of the 2006 IL GOV contest. The major party choices that year were Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who voters didn't like very much and GOP Treas. Judy Baar Topinka, who had equally high negative ratings. Not surprisingly, many voters saw the third-party candidate as an appealing alternative and Rich Whitney, the Green party nom., took 10%. Whitney's showing was 7 pts. higher than that of the two third party candidates combined in '02.
Only time will show if Daggett can establish himself as a credible alternative. If he siphons enough votes away from Christie, he could also become Corzine's new best friend.
[AMY WALTER and SEAN J. MILLER]
For everything going wrong with New Jersey, for voters to consistently vote for democrats that do none of the things they promise in order to get elected, that fact is just amazing to me. Property taxes, personal taxes, citizen's rights, infrastructure, crime, casino revenue, corruption, political nepotism, it never ends. Corzine did none of the things he promised, and for people to still consider him a viable candidate is mind-boggling. No wonder the state is screwed-up, and always will be.
For everything going wrong with New Jersey, for voters to consistently vote for democrats that do none of the things they promise in order to get elected, that fact is just amazing to me. Property taxes, personal taxes, citizen's rights, infrastructure, crime, casino revenue, corruption, political nepotism, it never ends. Corzine did none of the things he promised, and for people to still consider him a viable candidate is mind-boggling. No wonder the state is screwed-up, and always will be. It's also sad and funny that Obama's highest satisfaction ratings were in December 08.
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